Exploring Monte Carlo Methods

Exploring Monte Carlo Methods, Second Edition provides a valuable introduction to the numerical methods that have come to be known as "Monte Carlo." This unique and trusted resource for course use, as well as researcher reference, offers accessible coverage, clear explanations and helpful examples throughout. Building from the basics, the text also includes applications in a variety of fields, such as physics, nuclear engineering, finance and investment, medical modeling and prediction, archaeology, geology and transportation planning. Provides a comprehensive yet concise treatment of Monte Carlo methods Uses the famous "Buffon’s needle problem" as a unifying theme to illustrate the many aspects of Monte Carlo methods Includes numerous exercises and useful appendices on: Certain mathematical functions, Bose Einstein functions, Fermi Dirac functions and Watson functions

A comprehensive overview of Monte Carlo simulation that explores the latest topics, techniques, and real-world applications More and more of today’s numerical problems found in engineering and finance are solved through Monte Carlo methods. The heightened popularity of these methods and their continuing development makes it important for researchers to have a comprehensive understanding of the Monte Carlo approach. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods provides the theory, algorithms, and applications that helps provide a thorough understanding of the emerging dynamics of this rapidly-growing field. The authors begin with a discussion of fundamentals such as how to generate random numbers on a computer. Subsequent chapters discuss key Monte Carlo topics and methods, including: Random variable and stochastic process generation Markov chain Monte Carlo, featuring key algorithms such as the Metropolis-Hastings method, the Gibbs sampler, and hit-and-run Discrete-event simulation Techniques for the statistical analysis of simulation data including the delta method, steady-state estimation, and kernel density estimation Variance reduction, including importance sampling, latin hypercube sampling, and conditional Monte Carlo Estimation of derivatives and sensitivity analysis Advanced topics including cross-entropy, rare events, kernel density estimation, quasi Monte Carlo, particle systems, and randomized optimization The presented theoretical concepts are illustrated with worked examples that use MATLAB®, a related Web site houses the MATLAB® code, allowing readers to work hands-on with the material and also features the author's own lecture notes on Monte Carlo methods. Detailed appendices provide background material on probability theory, stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics as well as the key optimization concepts and techniques that are relevant to Monte Carlo simulation. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods is an excellent reference for applied statisticians and practitioners working in the fields of engineering and finance who use or would like to learn how to use Monte Carlo in their research. It is also a suitable supplement for courses on Monte Carlo methods and computational statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.

Monte Carlo methods are among the most used and useful computational tools available today, providing efficient and practical algorithims to solve a wide range of scientific and engineering problems. Applications covered in this book include optimization, finance, statistical mechanics, birth and death processes, and gambling systems. Explorations in Monte Carlo Methods provides a hands-on approach to learning this subject. Each new idea is carefully motivated by a realistic problem, thus leading from questions to theory via examples and numerical simulations. Programming exercises are integrated throughout the text as the primary vehicle for learning the material. Each chapter ends with a large collection of problems illustrating and directing the material. This book is suitable as a textbook for students of engineering and the sciences, as well as mathematics.

This monograph surveys the present state of Monte Carlo methods. we have dallied with certain topics that have interested us Although personally, we hope that our coverage of the subject is reasonably complete; at least we believe that this book and the references in it come near to exhausting the present range of the subject. On the other hand, there are many loose ends; for example we mention various ideas for variance reduction that have never been seriously appli(:d in practice. This is inevitable, and typical of a subject that has remained in its infancy for twenty years or more. We are convinced Qf:ver theless that Monte Carlo methods will one day reach an impressive maturity. The main theoretical content of this book is in Chapter 5; some readers may like to begin with this chapter, referring back to Chapters 2 and 3 when necessary. Chapters 7 to 12 deal with applications of the Monte Carlo method in various fields, and can be read in any order. For the sake of completeness, we cast a very brief glance in Chapter 4 at the direct simulation used in industrial and operational research, where the very simplest Monte Carlo techniques are usually sufficient. We assume that the reader has what might roughly be described as a 'graduate' knowledge of mathematics. The actual mathematical techniques are, with few exceptions, quite elementary, but we have freely used vectors, matrices, and similar mathematical language for the sake of conciseness.

An invaluable resource for quantitative analysts who need to run models that assist in option pricing and risk management. This concise, practical hands on guide to Monte Carlo simulation introduces standard and advanced methods to the increasing complexity of derivatives portfolios. Ranging from pricing more complex derivatives, such as American and Asian options, to measuring Value at Risk, or modelling complex market dynamics, simulation is the only method general enough to capture the complexity and Monte Carlo simulation is the best pricing and risk management method available. The book is packed with numerous examples using real world data and is supplied with a CD to aid in the use of the examples.

This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio method and the screening method The score function method for sensitivity analysis The stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization The cross-entropy method to rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization Application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems, with an emphasis on the parametric minimum cross-entropy method An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, with more difficult sections and exercises marked accordingly for advanced readers. A generous sampling of applied examples is positioned throughout the book, emphasizing various areas of application, and a detailed appendix presents an introduction to exponential families, a discussion of the computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, and sample MATLAB programs. Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.

Apart from a thorough exploration of all the important concepts, this volume includes over 75 algorithms, ready for putting into practice. The book also contains numerous hands-on implementations of selected algorithms to demonstrate applications in realistic settings. Readers are assumed to have a sound understanding of calculus, introductory matrix analysis, and intermediate statistics, but otherwise the book is self-contained. Suitable for graduates and undergraduates in mathematics and engineering, in particular operations research, statistics, and computer science.