Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Interrupted Time Series Analysis develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. It provides example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series to illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. Additionally, the book supplements the classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. Not only does the text discuss new developments, including the prospects for widespread adoption of Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs, but it makes optimal use of graphical illustrations in its examples. With forty completed example analyses that demonstrate the implications of model properties, Interrupted Time Series Analysis will be a key inter-disciplinary text in classrooms, workshops, and short-courses for researchers familiar with time series data or cross-sectional regression analysis but limited background in the structure of time series processes and experiments.

Interrupted Time Series Analysis develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. It provides example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series to illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. Additionally, the book supplements the classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. Not only does the text discuss new developments, including the prospects for widespread adoption of Bayesian hypothesis testing and synthetic control group designs, but it makes optimal use of graphical illustrations in its examples. With forty completed example analyses that demonstrate the implications of model properties, Interrupted Time Series Analysis will be a key inter-disciplinary text in classrooms, workshops, and short-courses for researchers familiar with time series data or cross-sectional regression analysis but limited background in the structure of time series processes and experiments.

Describes ARIMA or Box Tiao models, widely used in the analysis of interupted time series quasi-experiments, assuming no statistical background beyond simple correlation. The principles and concepts of ARIMA time series analyses are developed and applied where a discrete intervention has impacted a social system. '...this is the kind of exposition I wished I had had some ten years ago when venturing into the world of autoregressive, moving-average (ARIMA) models of time-series analysis...This monograph nicely lays out a method for assessing the impact of a discrete policy or event of some importance on behavior which can be continuously observed...If widely used, as I hope, it will save a generation of social scientists fro

Featuring engaging examples from diverse disciplines, this book explains how to use modern approaches to quasi-experimentation to derive credible estimates of treatment effects under the demanding constraints of field settings. Foremost expert Charles S. Reichardt provides an in-depth examination of the design and statistical analysis of pretest-posttest, nonequivalent groups, regression discontinuity, and interrupted time-series designs. He details their relative strengths and weaknesses and offers practical advice about their use. Reichardt compares quasi-experiments to randomized experiments and discusses when and why the former might be a better choice. Modern moethods for elaborating a research design to remove bias from estimates of treatment effects are described, as are tactics for dealing with missing data and noncompliance with treatment assignment. Throughout, mathematical equations are translated into words to enhance accessibility.

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Applied Linear Statistical Models 5e is the long established leading authoritative text and reference on statistical modeling. For students in most any discipline where statistical analysis or interpretation is used, ALSM serves as the standard work. The text includes brief introductory and review material, and then proceeds through regression and modeling for the first half, and through ANOVA and Experimental Design in the second half. All topics are presented in a precise and clear style supported with solved examples, numbered formulae, graphic illustrations, and "Notes" to provide depth and statistical accuracy and precision. Applications used within the text and the hallmark problems, exercises, and projects are drawn from virtually all disciplines and fields providing motivation for students in virtually any college. The Fifth edition provides an increased use of computing and graphical analysis throughout, without sacrificing concepts or rigor. In general, the 5e uses larger data sets in examples and exercises, and where methods can be automated within software without loss of understanding, it is so done.

Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments presents the elements of statistical time series analysis while also addressing recent developments in research design and causal modeling. A distinguishing feature of the book is its integration of design and analysis of time series experiments. Drawing examples from criminology, economics, education, pharmacology, public policy, program evaluation, public health, and psychology, Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments is addressed to researchers and graduate students in a wide range of behavioral, biomedical and social sciences. Readers learn not only how-to skills but, also the underlying rationales for the design features and the analytical methods. ARIMA algebra, Box-Jenkins-Tiao models and model-building strategies, forecasting, and Box-Tiao impact models are developed in separate chapters. The presentation of the models and model-building assumes only exposure to an introductory statistics course, with more difficult mathematical material relegated to appendices. Separate chapters cover threats to statistical conclusion validity, internal validity, construct validity, and external validity with an emphasis on how these threats arise in time series experiments. Design structures for controlling the threats are presented and illustrated through examples. The chapters on statistical conclusion validity and internal validity introduce Bayesian methods, counterfactual causality and synthetic control group designs. Building on the earlier of the authors, Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments includes more recent developments in modeling, and considers design issues in greater detail than any existing work. Additionally, the book appeals to those who want to conduct or interpret time series experiments, as well as to those interested in research designs for causal inference.--

"This book focuses on fundamental elements of time-series analysis that social scientists need to understand to employ time-series analysis for their research and practice. Avoiding extraordinary mathematical materials, this book explains univariate time-series analysis step-by-step, from the preliminary visual analysis through the modeling of seasonality, trends, and residuals to the prediction and the evaluation of estimated models. Then, this book explains smoothing, multiple time-series analysis, and interrupted time-series analysis. At the end of each step, this book coherently provides an analysis of the monthly violent-crime rates as an example."--Provided by publisher.