Irrational Exuberance

Irrational Exuberance
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publsiher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 392
Release: 2016-08-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780691173122

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Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.

Irrational Exuberance

Irrational Exuberance
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publsiher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 334
Release: 2009-02-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781400824366

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This first edition of this book was a broad study, drawing on a wide range of published research and historical evidence, of the enormous stock market boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. Although it took as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it placed it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also made concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. The book argued that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Part one of the book considered structural factors behind the boom. A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes was given. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, were described. Part Two discussed cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Three discussed psychological factors, psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior. Part Four discussed attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. Part Five presented policy options and actions that should be taken. The second edition, 2005, added an analysis of the real estate bubble as similar to the stock market bubble that preceded it, and warned that "Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession." Thus, the second edition of this book was among the first to warn of the global financial crisis that began with the subprime mortgage debacle in 2007

Irrational Exuberance

Irrational Exuberance
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publsiher: Broadway
Total Pages: 356
Release: 2001
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: STANFORD:36105111606435

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An expert on market volatility shows that the value of the stock market may be significantly inflated and urges cautious optimism, predicting that the market may show poorer performance in the future.

Finance and the Good Society

Finance and the Good Society
Author: Robert J. Shiller
Publsiher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 312
Release: 2013-04-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781400846177

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Nobel Prize-winning economist explains why we need to reclaim finance for the common good The reputation of the financial industry could hardly be worse than it is today in the painful aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. New York Times best-selling economist Robert Shiller is no apologist for the sins of finance—he is probably the only person to have predicted both the stock market bubble of 2000 and the real estate bubble that led up to the subprime mortgage meltdown. But in this important and timely book, Shiller argues that, rather than condemning finance, we need to reclaim it for the common good. He makes a powerful case for recognizing that finance, far from being a parasite on society, is one of the most powerful tools we have for solving our common problems and increasing the general well-being. We need more financial innovation—not less—and finance should play a larger role in helping society achieve its goals. Challenging the public and its leaders to rethink finance and its role in society, Shiller argues that finance should be defined not merely as the manipulation of money or the management of risk but as the stewardship of society's assets. He explains how people in financial careers—from CEO, investment manager, and banker to insurer, lawyer, and regulator—can and do manage, protect, and increase these assets. He describes how finance has historically contributed to the good of society through inventions such as insurance, mortgages, savings accounts, and pensions, and argues that we need to envision new ways to rechannel financial creativity to benefit society as a whole. Ultimately, Shiller shows how society can once again harness the power of finance for the greater good.

A Guide to Econometrics

A Guide to Econometrics
Author: Peter Kennedy
Publsiher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 608
Release: 2008-02-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781405182577

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This is the perfect (and essential) supplement for all econometrics classes--from a rigorous first undergraduate course, to a first master's, to a PhD course. Explains what is going on in textbooks full of proofs and formulas Offers intuition, skepticism, insights, humor, and practical advice (dos and don’ts) Contains new chapters that cover instrumental variables and computational considerations Includes additional information on GMM, nonparametrics, and an introduction to wavelets

Animal Spirits

Animal Spirits
Author: George A. Akerlof,Robert J. Shiller
Publsiher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 264
Release: 2010-02-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781400834723

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The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government--simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life--such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes--and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits--the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time--unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.

Bursting the Bubble Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market

Bursting the Bubble  Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market
Author: David F. DeRosa
Publsiher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
Total Pages: 324
Release: 2021-04-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781952927119

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The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.

Value Investing For Dummies

Value Investing For Dummies
Author: Peter J. Sander,Janet Haley
Publsiher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 400
Release: 2011-02-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118052285

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Want to follow in Warren Buffett’s investing footprints? Value Investing For Dummies, 2nd Edition, explains what value investing is and how to incorporate it into your overall investment strategy. It presents a simple, straightforward way to apply proven investment principles, spot good deals, and produce extraordinary returns. This plain-English guide reveals the secrets of how to value stocks, decide when the price is right, and make your move. You’ll find out why a good deal is a good deal, no matter what the bulls and bears say, get tips in investing during jittery times, and understand how to detect hidden agendas in financial reports. And, you’ll uncover the keys to identifying the truly good businesses with enduring and growing value that continually outperform both their competition and the market as a whole. Discover how to: Understand financial investments View markets like a value investor Assess a company’s value Make use of value investing resources Incorporate fundamentals and intangibles Make the most of funds, REITs, and ETFs Develop your own investing style Figure out what a financial statement is really telling you Decipher earnings and cash-flow statements Detect irrational exuberance in company publications Make a value judgment and decide when to buy Complete with helpful lists of the telltale signs of value and “unvalue,” as well as the habits of highly successful value investors, Value Investing For Dummies, 2nd Edition, could be the smartest investment you’ll ever make!