Probabilistic Aspects Of Life Prediction

As fatigue and fracture mechanics approaches are used more often for determining the useful life and/or inspection intervals for complex structures, realization sets-in that all factors are not well known or characterized. Indeed, inherent scatter exists in initial material quality and in material performance. Furthermore, projections of component usage in determination of applied stresses are inexact at best and are subject to much discrepancy between projected and actual usage. Even the models for predicting life contain inherent sources of error based on assumptions and/or empirically fitted parameters. All of these factors need to be accounted for to determine a distribution of potential lives based on combination of the aforementioned variables, as well as other factors. The purpose of this symposium was to create a forum for assessment of the state-of-the-art in incorporating these uncertainties and inherent scatter into systematic probabilistic methods for conducting life assessment.

This symposium is the seventh of a series of IUTAM sponsored symposia which focus on probabilistic methods in mechanics. It is the sequel to the series of meetings in Coventry, UK (1972), Southhampton, UK (1976), Frankfurt/Oder, Germany (1982), Stockholm, Sweden (1984), Innsbruck/Igls, Austria (1987), and Turin, Italy (1991). The symposium focused on advances in the area of probabilistic mechanics with direct application to structural reliability issues. The contributed papers address collectively the four components of a structural reliability problem. They are: characterization of stochastic loads, description of material properties in terms of fatigue and fracture, response determination, and quantitative assessment of the reliability of the structural system. Four Keynote Lectures by V. Bolotin (Russia), o. Ditlevsen (Denmark), R. Heller (USA), and F. Ziegler (Austria) were delivered; the remaining contributed papers were organized in ten technical sessIons. A reception was hosted by Dr. Y. Wu the first day of the symposium; the second day of the symposium a banquet was hosted by Dr. P. Spanos, with Dr. N. Abramson serving as the banquet speaker. Closing remarks were provided by the IUTAM Secretary General, Dr. F. Ziegler.

With the advent of the 80's there has been an increasing need for analytic and numerical techniques, based on a thorough understanding of microstructural processes, that express in a manner suitable for practicing engineers the reliability of components and structures that are being subjected to degradation situations. Such situations fall within the framework offracture mechanics, fatigue, corrosion fatigue and pitting corrosion. Luckily, such techniques are now being developed and it was felt timely to combine in one volume reports by the leaders in this field who are currently making great strides towards solving these problems. Hence the idea of this monograph was born and I am pleased to be associated both with it and the contributors whose chapters are included in this volume. A very large part of the credit for this monograph must go to the authors who have taken time out from their busy schedules to prepare their submissions. They have all worked diligently over the last few months in order to get their manuscripts to me on time and I sincerely thank them for their help throughout the preparation of this volume.

A compendium of European and worldwide research investigating creep, fatigue and failure behaviors in metals under high-temperature and other service stresses. It helps set the standards for coordinating creep data and for maintaining defect-free quality in high-temperature metals and metal-based weldments.

A revised edition that explores random numbers, probability, and statistical inference at an introductory mathematical level Written in an engaging and entertaining manner, the revised and updated second edition of Probably Not continues to offer an informative guide to probability and prediction. The expanded second edition contains problem and solution sets. In addition, the book’s illustrative examples reveal how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand and explains when we only think we know something. The author introduces the principles of probability and explains probability distribution functions. The book covers combined and conditional probabilities and contains a new section on Bayes Theorem and Bayesian Statistics, which features some simple examples including the Presecutor’s Paradox, and Bayesian vs. Frequentist thinking about statistics. New to this edition is a chapter on Benford’s Law that explores measuring the compliance and financial fraud detection using Benford’s Law. This book: Contains relevant mathematics and examples that demonstrate how to use the concepts presented Features a new chapter on Benford’s Law that explains why we find Benford’s law upheld in so many, but not all, natural situations Presents updated Life insurance tables Contains updates on the Gantt Chart example that further develops the discussion of random events Offers a companion site featuring solutions to the problem sets within the book Written for mathematics and statistics students and professionals, the updated edition of Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition combines the mathematics of probability with real-world examples. LAWRENCE N. DWORSKY, PhD, is a retired Vice President of the Technical Staff and Director of Motorola’s Components Research Laboratory in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. He is the author of Introduction to Numerical Electrostatics Using MATLAB from Wiley.

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will learn how statistics have become indispensable for predicting the future. You will also learn : that probability was first developed to win at games of chance; how predicting the future became scientifically possible; that artificial intelligence will take probability to a new level; why you should beware of polls and scientific studies. Watching your weather application in the morning before going to work may seem trivial to you. Yet this simple gesture displays the result of an infinite number of mathematical calculations designed to predict the weather in your city. Just like weather predictions, the prediction of future events has become an essential part of human activities. From now on, humanity no longer depends on crystal balls or ossicles to know what's ahead. Rather, it relies on mathematics and statistics, which are increasingly infiltrating your daily life. Are you ready to become aware of the impact of these new disciplines in your life? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!