The Handbook Of Technology Foresight

Cross-cutting analytical chapters explore the emergence and positioning of foresight, approaches and methods, organisational issues, policy transfer and evaluation.

​Decision-makers at all levels are being confronted with novel complexities and uncertainties and face long-term challenges which require foresight about long-term future prospects, assumptions, and strategies. This book explores how foresight studies can be systematically undertaken and used in this context. It explicates why and how methods like horizon scanning, scenario planning, and roadmapping should be applied when dealing with high levels of uncertainty. The scope of the book moves beyond “narrow” technology foresight, towards addressing systemic interrelations between social, technological, economic, environmental, and political systems. Applications of foresight tools to such fields as energy, cities, health, transportation, education, and sustainability are considered as well as enabling technologies including nano-, bio-, and information technologies and cognitive sciences. The approaches will be illustrated with specific actual cases.

Innovation underpins competitiveness, is crucial to addressing societal challenges, and its support has become a major public policy goal. But what really works in innovation policy, and why? This Handbook, compiled by leading experts in the field, is the first comprehensive guide to understanding the logic and effects of innovation polices. The Handbook develops a conceptualisation and typology of innovation policies, presents meta-evaluations for 16 key innovation policy instruments and analyses evidence on policy-mix. For each policy instrument, underlying rationales and examples are presented, along with a critical analysis of the available impact evidence. Providing access to primary sources of impact analysis, the book offers an insightful assessment of innovation policy practice and its evaluation.

Strategic foresight is discipline that organizations adopt to gather, interpret, manage information about the future environment they plan to operate in. This book introduces the concept of strategic foresight and advocates a holistic and systemic foresight approach comprising five phases that are suitable for organizations in the public and private sectors. Using real‐life cases as practical examples, the book demonstrates how organizations can apply a range of foresight methods and resources across the phases from intelligence to implementation. The book offers an opportunity to learn by all key stakeholders. It enhances the understanding of the National Research Organization’s Foresight exercise (as the complex social phenomenon) in its context. The case study of the National Research Organisation provides lessons and insights that can improve both the theoretical and practical implementation of the Foresight Exercise. Dr Mlungisi Cele Acting Head: National Advisory Council on Innovation Department of Science and Technology, Republic of South Africa Foresight methodologies have been widely spreading among business and research organizations worldwide during the last decades. The weakest point of many forward-looking activities so far was the lack of their practical use. The books shows, on a number of cases, how a Foresight study, being wisely designed and implemented, can become a useful navigation tool for increasing competitiveness in the fast changing environment. Dr Alexander Sokolov Professor, HSE National Research University, Russia Director, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge / International Research and Educational Foresight Centre Very useful tool to describe how organizations assess the future and formulate strategic plans using a systemic foresight methodology Ibon Zugasti Managing Director in PROSPEKTIKER and Chair of the Millennium Project Node in Spain A comprehensive source of knowledge on complex issues of technology foresight process, from conception to commercialization of key technologies, made easy to understand and useful for aspiring futurists seeking to learn more about the matters at hand. Dr Surachai Sathitkunarat Executive Director, APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF) Assistant to the President Office of National Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation Policy Council (NXPO) Thailand This book provides a very good coverage of the end-to-end methodology for technology-based innovation through the use of diverse and relevant business use cases. Very often, books on this theme only expound the approaches. Sarah goes beyond in sharing the pitfalls and challenges during the different stages of the systemic foresight methodology so that readers can learn and avoid the mistakes that other companies made. The emphasis on open innovation and intellectual property management is valuable as many organizations fail to deliver the vision due to insufficient attention on these two aspects. A must read if you wish to master strategic foresight. Dr Terence Hung Chief, Future Intelligence Technologies Rolls-Royce Singapore Pte Ltd Why do people want to know the future? People want to use budget efficiently or don't want to waste time? Aside from those who see the future, like fortune tellers, how do we make the future? Foresight is known as a method of creating the future in a way that many people has been using. So how is it different between Forecast and Foresight? This book will help answer that. Dr Kuniko Urashima Deputy Director of Foresight Center National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan .

'A great book to understand and foster innovation at all levels: a truly innovative piece of work.' Enrico Giovannini, Minister of Labour and Social Policies, Italy 'This book brings together original contributions from world leading experts on innovation indicators and is unique in several respects. First, the focus is upon innovation in terms of commercialized products and processes and not on secondary indicators of research or patenting. Second, it combines academic perspectives with user perspectives from industry and international organizations. Third, it strikes a good balance between old and new indicators, opening up new dimensions of innovation for measuring. It is a book worth reading for scholars studying innovation, for policy makers and, not least, for innovation managers in the private sector.' Bengt-Åke Lundvall, Aalborg University, Denmark and Sciences-Po, Paris, France This Handbook comprehensively examines indicators and statistical measurement related to innovation (as defined in the OECD/Eurostat Oslo Manual). It deals with the development and the use of innovation indicators to support decision-making and is written by authors who are practitioners, who know what works and what does not, in order to improve the development of indicators to satisfy future policy needs. This unique volume presents: the historical and geographical context for innovation indicators and measurement practical examples of how measurement is actually undertaken new areas of innovation indicators and measurement, including consumer innovation, public sector innovation and social innovation. This informative Handbook will appeal to policy makers in government departments, statistical offices and research institutes and international organizations such as the EU, OECD and the UN, as well as university departments of economics, sociology, law, science and technology, and public policy.

The application of foresight to address the challenges of uncertainty and rapid change has grown dramatically in the past decade. In that period, the techniques have been greatly refined and the scope has been broadened to encompass future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) and more recently, the concept and practice of strategic intelligence. FTA addresses directly the longer-term future through the active and continuous development of visions, and pathways to realise these visions. It is increasingly seen as a valuable management and policy tool complementing, and extending further into the future, classical strategy, planning, and decision-making approaches. This book charts the development of FTA and provides the first coherent description and analysis of its practical application and impact in the worlds of business, government, education and research in both advanced and developing countries. It draws on papers addressing the application of FTA around the globe which were presented at the Second International Seville Seminar in September 2006. The insights and practical experience will be invaluable for company managers, government ministers and officials, researchers and academics with responsibilities for effective planning and decision-making in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world.

Many organizations in both the private and public sector are confronted with stiff challenges as they face rapid changes in the business environment. Understanding the causes of these changes is essential if organizations are to fashion suitable management responses. In a highly competitive and globalized scenario, business creativity provides the spark that fosters the development and implementation of innovation and organizational change. Increased understanding of the concepts of business creativity and strategic innovation management provides valuable insights into how organizations can change to meet new challenges. The book aims to: explain the nature of the acceleration in discontinuous change that is affecting the Western business environment emphasise the importance of taking a strategic approach to management responses to encourage creative and innovative skills indicate how a detailed strategic plan can be developed to support organizations intent on profitable survival in the twenty-first century. This textbook will be the perfect accompaniment to postgraduate courses on innovation management and creativity management. The wide-ranging approach means that the book will also be useful supplementary reading on a range of courses from management of technology to strategic management.

This important Handbook explores and evaluates dynamic environments and the appropriate strategic responses to them in the 21st century. Drawing together a collection of 29 original chapters, the Handbook makes an invaluable contribution to theory and practice by stimulating disciplined, rigorous and imaginative enquiry into the relationship between strategy and foresight. Leading scholars in the field of strategic management are brought together to offer innovative and multi-disciplinary perspectives on the past, present and future of strategy formation and foresight. In so doing, they challenge research in four key areas: strategy and foresight processes; strategy innovation for the future; understanding the future; and strategically responding to the future. The Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight is a comprehensive resource that will be invaluable for academics, students and practitioners interested in this important phenomenon.