The Scout Mindset

Winner of best smart thinking book 2022 (Business Book Awards) Guardian best books of 2021 'Original, thought-provoking and a joy to read' Tim Harford 'Highly recommended. It's not easy to become (more of) a scout, but it's hard not to be inspired by this book' Rutger Bregman When it comes to what we believe, humans see what they want to see. In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a 'soldier' mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalising in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe - and shoot down those we don't. But if we want to get things right more often we should train ourselves to think more like a scout. Unlike the soldier, a scout's goal isn't to defend one side over the other. It's to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what's actually true. In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn't that they're smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It's a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world - which anyone can learn. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think. 'With insights that are both sharp and actionable, The Scout Mindset picks up where Predictably Irrational left off. Reading it will teach you to think more clearly, see yourself more accurately, and be wrong a little less often' Adam Grant

Learn how to combat biases and make smarter decisions. In The Scout Mindset, Julia Galef explores two different modes of thinking, the 'soldier' and the 'scout' mindset. Unfortunately, most of us naturally have a 'soldier' mindset, were we protect our beliefs aggressively and ignore any evidence that we might be wrong. But to be right more often, we need to approach ideas more like a scout. A scout surveys the land, seeking accuracy and understanding to find all the available information - good and bad - to gain a more truthful picture. To help you make better decisions, this book will show you how to- - gather information from multiple sources - weigh up short and long term gains - overcome inherent biases - transcend tribal thinking - avoid self-deception Drawing on fascinating stories from Warren Buffett's investing strategies to subreddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains try to deceive us and how to see things more clearly so we make the right decision more often.

An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

The New York Times bestselling author, teacher, and speaker provides the next step beyond his immensely popular Notes from the Universe trilogy with this special 10th anniversary edition of the modern classic that contains even more enriching wisdom for living an abundant, joyous life. We create our own reality, our own fate, and our own luck. We are all filled with infinite possibilities, and it’s time to explore how powerful we truly are. With clear-eyed and masterful prose, Infinite Possibilities effortlessly reveals our true spiritual nature and exactly what it takes to find true happiness and fulfillment. Witty and intelligent, this is “the perfect book at the perfect time. It is full of wisdom, answers, and guidance—a unique combination that is guaranteed to help anyone during times of change and transition” (Ariane de Bonvoisin, bestselling author of The First 30 Days). This tenth anniversary edition features a new foreword by Bob Proctor and a new introduction from the author.

The winner of the UK's Business Book of the Year Award for 2021, this is a groundbreaking exposé of the myths behind startup success and a blueprint for harnessing the things that really matter. What is the difference between a startup that makes it, and one that crashes and burns? Behind every story of success is an unfair advantage. But an Unfair Advantage is not just about your parents' wealth or who you know: anyone can have one. An Unfair Advantage is the element that gives you an edge over your competition. This groundbreaking book shows how to identify your own Unfair Advantages and apply them to any project. Drawing on over two decades of hands-on experience, Ash Ali and Hasan Kubba offer a unique framework for assessing your external circumstances in addition to your internal strengths. Hard work and grit aren't enough, so they explore the importance of money, intelligence, location, education, expertise, status, and luck in the journey to success. From starting your company, to gaining traction, raising funds, and growth hacking, The Unfair Advantage helps you look at yourself and find the ingredients you didn't realize you already had, to succeed in the cut-throat world of business.

The amazing, all-true story of the first Girl Scouts and their visionary founder. Juliette Gordon Low--Daisy to her friends and family--was not like most girls of the Victorian era. Prim and proper? BOSH! Dainty and delicate? HOW BORING! She loved the outdoors, and she yearned for adventure! Born into a family of pathfinders and pioneers, she too wanted to make a difference in the world--and nothing would stop her. Combining her ancestors' passion for service with her own adventurous spirit and her belief that girls could do anything, she founded the Girl Scouts. One hundred years later, they continue to have adventures, do good deeds, and make a difference!

Learn how to combat biases and make smarter decisions In The Scout Mindset, Julia Galef explores two different modes of thinking, the 'soldier' and the 'scout' mindset. Unfortunately, most of us naturally have a 'soldier' mindset, were we protect our beliefs aggressively and ignore any evidence that we might be wrong. But to be right more often, we need to approach ideas more like a scout. A scout surveys the land, seeking accuracy and understanding to find all the available information - good and bad - to gain a more truthful picture. To help you make better decisions, this book will show you how to: - gather information from multiple sources - weigh up short and long term gains - overcome inherent biases - transcend tribal thinking - avoid self-deception Drawing on fascinating stories from Warren Buffett's investing strategies to subreddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains try to deceive us and reveals how we can overcome biases so that we make the right decision more often.

Why we don't live in a post-truth society but rather a myside society: what science tells us about the bias that poisons our politics. In The Bias That Divides Us, psychologist Keith Stanovich argues provocatively that we don't live in a post-truth society, as has been claimed, but rather a myside society. Our problem is not that we are unable to value and respect truth and facts, but that we are unable to agree on commonly accepted truth and facts. We believe that our side knows the truth. Post-truth? That describes the other side. The inevitable result is political polarization. Stanovich shows what science can tell us about myside bias: how common it is, how to avoid it, and what purposes it serves. Stanovich explains that although myside bias is ubiquitous, it is an outlier among cognitive biases. It is unpredictable. Intelligence does not inoculate against it, and myside bias in one domain is not a good indicator of bias shown in any other domain. Stanovich argues that because of its outlier status, myside bias creates a true blind spot among the cognitive elite--those who are high in intelligence, executive functioning, or other valued psychological dispositions. They may consider themselves unbiased and purely rational in their thinking, but in fact they are just as biased as everyone else. Stanovich investigates how this bias blind spot contributes to our current ideologically polarized politics, connecting it to another recent trend: the decline of trust in university research as a disinterested arbiter.