2011 Triennial Surveillance Review Review Of The 2007 Surveillance Decision And The Broader Legal Framework For Surveillance

This paper reviews the 2007 Surveillance Decision and the broader legal framework for surveillance. While the 2007 Surveillance Decision on Bilateral Surveillance over Members’ Policies (thereafter, the 2007 Decision) requires the Fund to review the decision itself, this paper takes a broader view. It recognizes that the 2007 Decision cannot be assessed in isolation from the legal framework it derives from, i.e., the Articles of Agreement, and that a debate on the adequacy of this broader framework is also necessary. The paper therefore discusses the strengths and limitations of the current system as set out in both the Articles of Agreement (primarily, Article IV) and the 2007 Decision and explores options going forward.

This paper proposes a draft Integrated Surveillance Decision (ISD) for adoption. As part of broader efforts to strengthen Fund surveillance, the Fund is modernizing its legal framework to better support operations. In April 2012, the Fund’s Executive Board discussed Modernizing the Legal Framework for Surveillance—Building Blocks Toward an Integrated Surveillance Decision. That paper highlighted key weaknesses in the current legal framework for surveillance and provided proposals for addressing them. Most Directors agreed that introducing a new surveillance decision covering both bilateral and multilateral surveillance would help address these weaknesses. In particular, they agreed with the general proposed approach to fill the gaps in bilateral surveillance through multilateral surveillance

This paper assesses progress in strengthening Fund surveillance and identifies needed improvements. It differs from past reviews insofar as it: (A) encompasses not only bilateral but also multilateral surveillance; and (B) steps-up external inputs in the form of studies by outside observers, commentaries, and assessment of recommendations by an external advisory group.

This paper evaluates the IMF’s exchange rate analysis since the 2008 TSR. It focuses on the evolution of methods, the quality of the IMF‘s multilateral and bilateral exchange rate analysis, the evenhandedness and transparency of this analysis, and the need to improve the coverage and integration of external stability assessments.

This report is the seventh in a series of evaluation updates by the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF (IEO) that return to past IEO evaluations and assess the continuing relevance of their main conclusions. The report revisits the 2007 evaluation of IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice, which found that the IMF was “not as effective as it needed to be” in fulfilling its responsibilities for exchange rate surveillance in the period 1999–2005. While acknowledging the inherent complexity of providing exchange rate policy advice, including the lack of professional consensus on many of the key issues, the evaluation observed serious weaknesses in the IMF’s work on key analytical issues and in its engagement with members. The update finds that the IMF has substantially overhauled its approach to exchange rate policy advice since 2007. Key steps taken include: adoption of a more comprehensive approach to exchange rate surveillance under the 2012 Integrated Surveillance Decision; development of enhanced analytical tools; a new institutional view on capital flows; and introduction of the annual External Sector Report that provides an integrated picture of the external balances of major economies. The IMF continues to work on further enhancements of its approach. Nonetheless, the update concludes that challenges remain that impact the effectiveness of the IMF’s work in an area central to its mandate. The approach for assessing external balances and exchange rates continues to be contentious, in part reflecting differing views across the membership about the process of external adjustment. There are also ongoing questions in other areas, including considerations for exchange rate regime choice, attention to policy spillovers, the institutional view on capital flows, and data availability. The update suggests that the persistence of key issues identified in 2007 merits a full evaluation by the IEO.

The Thirty-Sixth Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents relevant to the current activities of the Fund.

The Thirty-Seventh Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as selected documents to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, it includes documents relating to the IMF, the United Nations, and other international organizations.

This Guidance Note provides guidance to country teams for surveillance under Article IV consultations. It supersedes the 2015 Guidance Note and its supplement. Fund surveillance continuously adapts to the evolving economic and financial landscape. The 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR) identified priorities for Fund surveillance, both in terms of content and modalities. This Guidance Note covers: Scope and requirements: The note lays out the coverage of, and formal requirements for, Article IV consultations and staff reports. It also outlines best practices aimed at enhancing the traction of Fund analysis and policy advice. Priorities and focus. The note reflects the four surveillance priorities identified in the CSR: (i) confronting risks and uncertainties, (ii) preempting and mitigating spillovers, (iii) ensuring economic sustainability, and (iv) adopting a more unified approach to policy advice. The note also provides guidance on sharpening the focus and selectivity of Article IV staff reports. Policies. The note discusses the content of surveillance in the areas of fiscal policy, macrofinancial analysis and financial policies, monetary policy, external sector policies, and macrostructural policies. Applications. The note considers several applications of such policies, such as with respect to the Integrated Policy Framework, climate change, and gender. Process and procedures. The note describes the Article IV consultation cycle and process, lays out drafting and publication guidelines for staff reports, and covers the treatment of confidential information.