2022 India S Two Front War

It is 2022. India's economy is poised for high growth in its 75th year of independence. China and Pakistan have serious economic and domestic problems, exacerbated by India's policies. They decide to collude against their neighbor and rival. A victory over India in a carefully planned, limited war, would hurt the weak Indian government enough to lose a mid-term election and bring in a government more amenable to make concessions on trade and Kashmir. India's Prime Minister heads an unstable coalition government, which falls, compelling him to face mid term election as his enemies want. He had allowed his national security team to reform the military. Faced with the country's gravest crisis, he gives them the freedom to devise a proactive strategy to face and defeat the China-Pakistan threat. Over several months, events in each nation lead the three nuclear armed countries towards war. A war that India's national security team wants and believes will be a final round - leading to lasting peace. Along with the preparation for military action, there are other wars each country fights in the run up to war. The war for political control, with factions in each country having different agendas. The war to shape public opinion and diplomatic battles. The second half of the book combines a very detailed and realistic portrayal of how war is likely to be fought and what its objectives might be. The 2022 war is an intense week-long war. Two million combatants fight on a front stretching from Afghanistan to the Burmese border, from the Malacca strait to the Red Sea and from Tibet to Sri Lanka. All units and weapons featured in the book are real and expected to be used in a 2022 war. Every division in each country is accounted for, on each day of battle. The battles on land move from mass tank battles in the Punjab, to special forces behind enemy lines, to fights for individual mountain ridges. Aircraft carriers and submarines try to destroy each other and the enemy's trade. Air wars feature advanced radar and missile systems, while cyber and unconventional warfare become an integral part of strategy.In each sector, limitations of terrain and logistics influence strategy. Maps and background information help the reader better understand the strategy and flow of battle in each sector.As important as the fighting, is the constant effort to control the narrative for the media. With the objectives of the war no longer being the capture of territory or casualties inflicted, but economic losses and political survival, the question for over a third of humanity is - who will prevail in this final round ?

The analysis asks one question and has one answer: Can India fight a two-front war against China and Pakistan? The answer is it cannot. Because of the China-Pakistan alliance, we cannot fight even a one-front war: engaging in a war with either adversary runs the risk of weakening the other front, leaving it open to exploitation. The solution, fortunately, is straightforward: build a 2-front war capability. The next problem is equally straightforward: The Government of India is determined not to spend money on defense. Today spending is down to 1.56% of GDP, lower even than in 1962. And we know how that ended. It takes little imagination to foresee what would have happened if 1962 had become 2-front: Pakistan would have walked over Punjab, perhaps all the way to Delhi, and we would have lost Kashmir too. If we chose to defend Punjab, we would have lost the North East Frontier Agency, now called Arunachal. If we tried to defend both fronts, we would have lost both. For a strong defensive posture, we need to spend the 3

Since its independence in 1947, India's leaders have sought to grasp the greatness that the country seemed destined for. India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, articulated these aspirations early on but, overwhelmed by development challenges, his successors focused largely on domestic concerns rather than on global leadership. The post-1991 era saw India positioned for the first time in many decades as an economic success, suggesting that it was on the cusp of breaking out as a global player. The twenty-odd years following the 1991 reforms were heady for India. Based on the expectation that India was now poised to ascend as a major power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi-less than a year after he first took office in May 2014-expressed his desire that India assume a leading role: completing the transformation from being merely an influential entity into one whose weight and preferences are defining for international politics. Grasping Greatness explores the various tasks pertaining to this push for eminence in world affairs. It elaborates the economic, state-building, and international dimensions of this ambition. Eminent thinkers like Rakesh Mohan, Ila Patnaik, Surjit Bhalla, Arjun Subramanian, and others reflect upon the tasks at hand and the desirable routes to achieve them. Edited by Ashley J. Tellis, Bibek Debroy and C. Raja Mohan, Grasping Greatness is an important contribution to the intellectual debates as India enters into a new era on the world stage.

Changing Patterns of Warfare between India and Pakistan analyzes how advanced nuclear technologies and the advent of disruptive technologies have affected the evolving conflict between India and Pakistan. Advanced nuclear technologies such as nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, ballistic missile defence systems (BMDs), multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), anti-satellite weapons (ASAT); and disruptive technologies such as hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence (AI), lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) / drones and space-based and cyber technologies have all complicated crisis dynamics and the domain of warfare in the region. Further, the employment of India’s compellence strategy is an indication of a change in its stance that demonstrates smart/surgical strikes are now more likely. The phenomenon of surgical strikes raises the question of how disruptive technologies will be used to gain direct/indirect military control and hence challenge the existing status quo and deterrence stability. Against this backdrop, the authors predict how this conflict may develop in the future and evaluate the ways to stabilize deterrence and regulate the militarization of artificial intelligence and disruptive technologies between India and Pakistan. This book will be of interest to all those researching and working in the fields of security studies, strategic studies, nuclear policy, deterrence thinking and proliferation/non-proliferation aspects of the nuclear weapons programme within South Asia and beyond. It will also be relevant for the academic community, policy-makers, diplomats, members of international non-governmental organizations (INGOs), professional research institutes and organizations working on India–Pakistan relations.

IN THIS VOLUME: • Logistics and Stamina in War - Lt Gen (Dr) JS Bajwa • Towards a Prompt Global Defence Architecture for India - Navneet Bhushan and Adithya Akula • Drone Swarms: Asset and Threat - Is India Ready? - Gp Capt AK Sachdev • Unmanned Wingman Plan India - Air Marshal Anil Chopra • Decoding Kautilya’s Arthashashtra - Maj Vivek Yadav • Aerospace and Defence News - Priya Tyagi • As China Pushes North, will India’s arc of Influence Shrink? - Ramananda Sengupta • Quo Vadis Xi? - Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan • Pakistan Military’s Dilemma Admist a Political Turmoil - Danvir Singh • GOCO Model: Floundering in Rough Waters - Lt Gen NB Singh • Hypersonic PGMs and Conventional Missiles: Need for Manned Multi-Role Aircraft - Air Marshal Anil Chopra • India’s Potential as a Global Aerospace Industry Hub - Gp Capt AK Sachdev • Drone: The Winning Edge - Col Utkarsh Singh Rathore • Laser Weapons: The Future of Air Defence? - Col Mandeep Singh • Tour of Duty & the Mess Surrounding It - Brig Pradeep Sharma • Women May Cause Implosion of Pakistan - RSN Singh • Kashmir Killings: What is to be done now! - Col Anil Athale • The first casualty of war: Information - Harsh Behere

Survival, the IISS’s bimonthly journal, challenges conventional wisdom and brings fresh, often controversial, perspectives on strategic issues of the moment. In this issue: Robert Dalsjö, Michael Jonsson and Johan Norberg reconsider Russia’s military capability given its recent battlefield performance in Ukraine William Alberque and Benjamin Schreer argue that Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership would, if managed judiciously, bolster deterrence and European security Chuck Freilich contends that encouraging diplomacy is the best of Israel’s limited options for postponing Iran’s nuclear-weapons programme Nicolas Lippolis and Harry Verhoeven assess that if a wave of African defaults materialises in the near future, it will be catalysed more by private-sector manoeuvring and intransigence than by Chinese scheming Dana H. Allin and Erik Jones argue that Russia’s isolation is not a viable endgame for the West, but it may be unavoidable for a generation And seven more thought-provoking pieces, as well as our regular Book Reviews and Noteworthy column. Editor: Dr Dana Allin Managing Editor: Jonathan Stevenson Associate Editor: Carolyn West Assistant Editor: Jessica Watson Editorial Assistant: Charlie Zawadzki

As Sino-US relations have deteriorated, concerns have grown in Washington over its ability to defeat China in a major conflict. A conflict between such peer competitors would likely become a protracted war of attrition drawing on all dimensions of national power, but this reality has yet to receive a sufficient degree of analytical attention. In this Adelphi book, Iskander Rehman provides a historically informed and empirically grounded study of protracted great-power war, its core drivers and characteristics, and an examination of the elements that have most often determined a competitor’s long-term strategic performance. Final victory in a protracted conflict, this book argues, rests on a combination of three core factors: a state’s military effectiveness and adaptability, its socio-economic power and resiliency, and the soundness of its alliance management and grand strategy. A detailed analysis of the contemporary Sino-US rivalry assesses how both parties might fare in the event of a protracted war, while highlighting some of its key differentiating aspects – most notably its nuclear and cyber dimensions.

In this edition:- • China’s Geostrategic Perspect And Eastern Ladakh – Lt Gen JS Bajwa • Should the Indian Army stay out of politics? – Ramananda Sengupta • Rebuilding the Combat Fleet of the IAF to 42 Squadrons – Air Marshal Anil Chopra • Soft Kill Air Defence Weapon Systems : The Better Alternative? – Col Mandeep Singh • Make in India: An Appraisal 2022 – Danvir Singh • People’s Liberation Army Navy: A Review – Vice Admiral MP Muralidharan • Sixth Generation Fighter Aircraft: Its Prospects – Gp Capt AK Sachdev • Need to prioritise the IAF’s Unmanned Offensive and Defensive Capability – Air Marshal Anil Chopra • Chinese Roulette: Which way will the Wind Blow? – Brig Deepak Sinha • Military – Civil Fusion Strategy of China – Col NP Singh • The Indian Military and the Element of Surprise – Gp Capt PK Mulay • Aerospace and Defence News – Priya Tyagi • Operational Testing and Evaluation of Weapons and Equipment – Lt Gen NB Singh • Atmanirbhar in Aerospace and Defence Manufacturing – Gp Cap AK Sachdev • War Widows: The Hidden Battles – The Journey of Rebuilding Life – Tamanna Ruth Edwards • Part I: The Defence and Decline of Dacca in 1971 – Sumit Walia • Book Review