A Fire Management Simulation Model Using Stochastic Arrival Times

Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the fire. Because the location of the fires cannot be predicted and because suppression units are not always available at a particular base location, the types of units sent and their arrival times vary This aspect of fire modeling, which is especially important in representing simultaneous fires and in choosing base locations, has not previously been examined.

In a 1964-1967 study on the Challenge Experimental Forest, seedfall was evaluated in 2-, 5-, and 10-acre circular clearcuttings. During the 4 years, 10 seed crops, ranging from light to bumper, were produced by ponderosa pine. white fir, Douglas-fir, and incense cedar. Seedfall ranged from 76 to 40,691 sound seed per acre (188 to 100,547/ha) for a single species in a given year. From 89 to 100 percent of each species' seed fell within an area 1 1/2 times the height of the average dominant tree. Overall, seed distribution was highly variable.