A Practical Model Based Approach To Monetary Policy Analysis

This paper motivates and describes an approach to forecasting and monetary policy analysis based on the use of a simple structural macroeconomic model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. It contrasts this approach with financial programming and its emphasis on monetary aggregates, as well as with more econometrically driven analyses. It presents illustrative results from an application to Canada. A companion paper provides a more detailed how-to guide and introduces a set of tools designed to facilitate this approach.

This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips) curve, a version of the uncovered interest parity condition, and a monetary policy reaction function. The paper discusses how to parameterize the model and use it for forecasting and policy analysis, illustrating with an application to Canada. It also introduces a set of useful software tools for conducting a model-consistent forecast.

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within and across economies. A variety of monetary policy analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment.

The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.

This new volume sheds new light on current monetary issues, in particular the debate on monetary policy making, by blending theoretical economic analysis, history of economics, and historical case studies. A discretionary monetary policy refers to cases in which the central bank is free to change its policy actions or key instruments when the need arises, whilst a monetary policy rule can be defined as a commitment from (independent) central banks to reach one or several objective(s) by way of systematic policy actions. This book uses case studies from France and Sweden, and places them in the context of Keynes’ argument from his 1923 ‘Tract on Monetary Reforms’, to support the argument that the use of discretionary practices within a monetary policy rule (such as in the Gold Standard era) is the best approach. This book takes an innovative approach in combining a theoretical analysis (mainly the work of New Neoclassical Synthesis throughout Woodford's model) a history of economic thought analysis (based on the monetary works from Wicksell, Cassel and Keynes) and an historical study of central bank practices both in France (based on Bank of France archives materials) and in Sweden. The final section of the book explores the debate on monetary policy rule in light of the 2008 financial crisis. As such, the book provides a unique synthesis that will be of interest not only to scholars of history of economic thought and economic theory, but also to anyone with an interest in monetary economics and contemporary monetary policy.

This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.

Bridging the theory and practice of monetary policy, this book presents aspects of the New-Keynesian theory of monetary policy and its implications for the practical decision-making of central bankers. It also outlines important lessons for policymakers.