Afghanistan And Its Neighbors An Ever Dangerous Neighborhood

The fate of Afghanistan and the success of U.S. and coalition efforts to stabilize Afghanistan will in large measure be affected by the current and future policies pursued by its varied proximate and distal neighbors. Weinbaum evaluates the courses of action Afghanistan's key neighbors are likely to take.

This book touches on International Relations Theory, International Organizations, The Study of the Factors of Peace, Foundations of Peace, International Political Economy, Comparative Political Systems, International Law, International Political Systems, Strategic Intelligence, Intelligence Operations and Reports, Counterintelligence and HUMINT Operations, Criminal Intelligence Analysis, Analytics for Intelligence Analysis and other areas. This is a primer for International Affairs and Intelligence Studies.

Pakistan is at currently at the centre of regional and global geo-strategic issues as a frontline state in the global war on terrorism. It is seeking to project itself as a modern Islamic state that can engage both the Islamic bloc and the western world in the post 9/11 era. This book addresses some questions under the broad rubric of International Relations and Security. It focuses on four themes: Pakistan and global security; Pakistan’s international relations; politics and identity in Pakistan; and economic development of Pakistan. Leading international experts have contributed articles within the framework of these themes.

Owing to its geo-strategic location and mineral wealth, Afghanistan has acquired significance in the inter-state politics of Asia as well as world politics during the past decades. This book outlines Afghanistan’s efforts to build a stable and peaceful democratic polity, with external military support from the United States and its NATO allies. It also analyses the nation’s development initiatives with major powers such as India, the United States, Russia and Germany. The volume: • brings to the fore ongoing tensions within the Afghan polity and its continued impact on Asian/world politics; • discusses topical themes such as withdrawal of US troops and non-traditional security; and • presents perspectives from scholars and experts from around the world, including Afghans. This work will be useful to scholars and researchers in political science, international relations, sociology, area studies, and the interested general reader.

The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) is a systematic technique for predicting short-term, unique behaviors. Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions across a wide range of intelligence problems, such as cyber threats in the U.S., the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack, the likelihood of Iran providing nuclear capability to terrorist groups, or the future actions of the Mexican drug cartel. LAMP offers an innovative and powerful method for organizing all available information based on the perceptions of the national actors, using it to make relevant predictions as to which alternate future is most likely to occur at a given moment in time. Its transparent structure enables anyone to see how an analyst gets from point A to point B to produce an intelligence estimate. LAMP differs from other analytical techniques in that it is based on determining the relative probability of a range of alternate futures, rather than attempting to determine the quantitative probability of their occurrence. After explaining its theoretical framework, the text leads the reader through the process of predictive analysis before providing practical case studies showing how LAMP is applied against real world problems, such as the possible responses of Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon to the behavior of Hezbollah or the competing visions of the future of Afghanistan. Evaluation of the method is provided with the case studies to show the effectiveness of the LAMP predictions over time. The book is complemented by a website with downloadable software for use by students of intelligence in conducting their own predictive analysis. It will be an essential tool for the analyst and the student, not only for national security issues but also for competitive intelligence.