After The Arab Uprisings

A holistic and cross-disciplinary approach to understanding why a regional democratic transition did not occur after the Arab Spring protests, this accessible study highlights the salience of regime type, civil society, women's mobilizations, and external intervention across seven countries for undergraduate and postgraduate students and scholars.

From the author of the book that uniquely predicted the Egyptian revolution, a new message about the Middle East: everything we're told about the Arab Spring is wrong. When popular revolutions erupted in Tunisia and Egypt, the West assumed that democracy and pluralism would triumph. Greatly praised author and foreign correspondent John R. Bradley draws on his extensive firsthand knowledge of the region's cultures and societies to show how Islamists will fill the power vacuum in the wake of the revolutions. This vivid and timely book gives an original analysis of the new Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Bahrain by highlighting the dramatic spread of Saudi-funded Wahhabi ideology, inter-tribal rivalries, and Sunni-Shia divisions. Bradley gives a boots on the ground look at how the revolutions were first ignited and the major players behind them, and shows how the local population participated in and responded to the uprisings. In Tunisia he witnesses secularists under violent attack and in Egypt observes radical Islamists taking control of the streets. He illuminates the ancient sectarian strife shaking Bahrain, fierce civil war pitching tribe against tribe in Libya and Yemen, and ethnic divisions threatening to tear apart Syria and Iran. Taking it one step further, Bradley offers a comprehensive look at how across countries, liberal, progressive voices that first rallied the Arab masses were drowned out by the slogans of the better-organized and more popular radical Islamists. With the in-depth knowledge of a local and the keen perspective of a seasoned reporter, After the Arab Spring offers a piercing analysis of what the empowerment of Islamism bodes for the future of the Middle East and the impact on the West.

Since 2013, the Middle East has experienced a double trend of chaos and civil war, on the one hand, and the return of authoritarianism, on the other. That convergence has eclipsed the political transitions that occurred in the countries whose regimes were toppled in 2011, as if they were merely footnotes to a narrative that naturally led from an "Arab Spring" to an "Arab Winter". This volume aims at rehabilitating those transitions, by considering them as expressions of a "revolutionary moment" whose outcome was never pre-determined, but depended on the choices of a large range of actors. It brings together leading scholars of Arab politics to adopt a comparative approach to a few crucial aspects of those transitions: constitutional debates, the question of transitional justice, the evolution of civil-military relations, and the role of specific actors, both domestic and international.

The Arab Uprisings that began in 2010 removed four presidents and made more mobilized mass publics an increased factor in the politics of regional states. The main initial problematic of the Arab Uprising was how to translate mass protest into democratization and ultimately democratic consolidation; yet four years later, there was little democratization. This book explores various aspects of this question while, comparing outcomes in three states, Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. The introduction by Raymond Hinnebusch explores how far different starting points —the features of the regime and of the uprising--explain these pathways. Morten Valbjørn then considers the consequences of the Arab uprisings for the credibility of rival democratization and post-democratization paradigms. Vincent Durac examines the efficacy of anti-system social movements in challenging regimes but their inability to steer a democratic transition. Joshua Stacher examines the increased violence deployed by more conercive authoritarian regimes to prevent such a transition. Frede ́ric Volpi and Ewan Stein examine the conseuences of the relative balance between different kinds of Islamists for outcomes. James Allison then examines the impact of workers’ movements on democratic potentials. Adham Saouli assesses the mobilization of communal identities by ruling elites and counter-elites. Raymond Hinnebusch focuses on the negative impact on democratization of competitive external interference inside the uprising states. In Hinnebusch’s conclusion, the combined effects of the agency of these forces and the political, cultural, and economic contexts in which they operate are summarized. This book was previously published as a special issue of Democratization.

Cover -- Table of Contents -- Preface -- Introduction -- Rethinking Mobilization after the Arab Uprisings -- James M. Jasper and Frédéric Volpi -- 1. The Social Life of Contentious Ideas -- Piracy and Unruly, Translocal Appropriation in the Arab Uprisings and Beyond -- John Chalcraft -- 2. Routines and Ruptures in Anti-Israeli Protests in Jordan -- Jillian Schwedler -- 3. Shaping Contention as a Salafi Movement -- The Rise and Fall of Ansar al-Sharia in Post-Revolutionary Tunisia -- Frédéric Volpi -- 4. Contingency and Agency in a Turning Point Event -- March 18, 2011, in Daraa, Syria -- Wendy Pearlman -- 5 .It Takes Two (or More) to Tango -- The Local Coproduction of the Alexandrian Revolutionary Moment -- Youssef El Chazli -- 6. Violence, Social Actors, and Subjectivation in the Egyptian Revolution -- Farhad Khosrokhavar -- Conclusion -- Unruly Protest -- Charles Kurzman -- Index

The Arab Uprisings were unexpected events of rare intensity in Middle Eastern history – mass, popular and largely non-violent revolts which threatened and in some cases toppled apparently stable autocracies. This volume provides in-depth analyses of how people perceived the socio-economic and political transformations in three case studies epitomising different post-Uprising trajectories – Tunisia, Jordan and Egypt – and drawing on survey data to explore ordinary citizens’ perceptions of politics, security, the economy, gender, corruption, and trust. The findings suggest the causes of protest in 2010-2011 were not just political marginalisation and regime repression, but also denial of socio-economic rights and regimes failure to provide social justice. Data also shows these issues remain unresolved, and that populations have little confidence governments will deliver, leaving post-Uprisings regimes neither strong nor stable, but fierce and brittle. This analysis has direct implications both for policy and for scholarship on transformations, democratization, authoritarian resilience and ‘hybrid regimes’.

The Dawn of the Arab Uprising sheds light on the historical background and initial impact of the mass uprisings which have shaken the Arab world since December 2010. The book brings together the best writers from the online journal Jadaliyya, which has established itself as an unparalleled source of information and critical analysis on the Middle East. The authors, many of whom live in the countries affected, provide unique understanding and first-hand accounts of events that have received superficial and partial coverage in Western and Arab media alike. While the book focuses on those states that have been most affected by the uprisings it also covers the impact on Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq. The Dawn of the Arab Uprising covers the full range of issues involved in these historic events, from political economy and the role of social media, to international politics, gender, labor, and the impact on culture, making this the ideal one-stop introduction to the events for the novice and specialist alike.

The aim of this volume is to adopt an original analytical approach in explaining various dynamics at work behind the Arab Spring, through giving voice to local dynamics and legacies rather than concentrating on debates about paradigms. It highlights micro-perspectives of change and resistance—as well of contentious politics—that are often marginalized and left unexplored in favor of macro-analyses. First, the story of the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Morocco and Algeria is told through diverse and novel perspectives, looking at factors that have not yet been sufficiently underlined, but carry explanatory power for what has occurred. Second, rather than focusing on macro-comparative regional trends, the contributors to this book focus on the particularities of each country, highlighting distinctive micro-dynamics of change and continuity. The essays collected here are contributions from renowned writers and researchers from the Middle East and North Africa, along with Western experts, brought together to form a sophisticated dialogic exchange.