Agriculture And Economic Transformation In The Middle East And North Africa A Review Of The Past With Lessons For The Future

The agriculture sector is key for economic and social development, but the sector’s potential has not received enough attention from policy makers and stakeholders in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Political transitions, instability, and the resulting refugee crisis have shifted focus away from other pressing development challenges, including slow progress in economic diversification, high unemployment, and persistent high food insecurity and rural poverty. Despite its small contribution to GDP, agriculture is strategic for sustainable development in the MENA countries. Agriculture, for example, is central to achieve food and water security in a region characterized as one of the most food insecure and water scarce in the world. The sector’s role in employment is also central, given the region’s high structural unemployment. However, it will not be possible for MENA countries to develop agriculture without a pathway to structural economic transformation. The region has already started the process of transformation but longstanding challenges remain. This report aims to examine the drivers, constraints, and social implications of agricultural development in MENA and to explore possible cornerstones for new and sustainable development strategies in the context of economic transformation. More specifically, the report provides answers to the following questions: • What development strategies and policies did governments in MENA put in place over the past three decades and how did they affect the performance of agriculture? • How did the structural characteristics of the MENA countries affect agricultural development and the economic transformation process in the region? • What did we learn from the past performance of agriculture? What should be the central elements guiding future agricultural policies? • What are elements of a new and sustainable development strategy in MENA countries? • What is the role of agriculture and agro-industries for development in MENA?

‘Food Insecurity and Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa’ studies the political economy of agrarian transformation in the eponymous regions. Examining Egypt and Tunisia in detail as case studies, it critiques the dominant tropes of food security offered by the international financial institutions and promotes the importance of small-scale family farming in developing sustainable food sovereignty. Egypt and Tunisia are located in the context of the broader Middle East and broader processes of war, environmental transformation and economic reform. The book contributes to uncovering the historical backdrop and contemporary pressures in the Middle East and North Africa for the uprisings of 2010 and 2011. It also explores the continued failure of post-uprising counter-revolutionary governments to directly address issues of rural development that put the position and role of small farmers centre stage.

The book provides an overview on national policies and regulations related to water resource management in the Middle East and North African countries (MENA), where water scarcity problems are critical. The physical/natural constraints, socio-economic and political circumstances make the MENA region a sort of ‘laboratory’ for natural resource management and particularly water management. The book provides a good comparison on how neighboring countries with quite similar natural constraints and cultures are addressing water problems in different ways. It enlightens water resource specialists on successful experiences around the region and show cases the reforms undertaken in the water sector to meet the challenges posed by urbanization, food security, water pollution and climate change. The book constitutes nine chapters, seven of them with content from the main MENA countries. It starts with an introductory chapter that provides background information on the region’s water resources with descriptive statistics and historical developments of the water sector. It ends with a chapter that summarizes the policy implications and main conclusions on the way forward for sustainable management of water in MENA countries.

The importance of a resilient agriculture sector in providing food security, livelihoods, and household income was highlighted in many countries by the recent pandemic, as was the capacity of the sector to cushion the negative impacts of the subsequent economic slowdown. This has been the case in Egypt, where agriculture has been resilient to the health crisis in comparison with the service and industry sectors (Breisinger et al. 2020). However, the sector’s resiliency is gradually being corroded by climate change, with lasting, harmful effects for agriculture and food systems.

The background paper entitled “Addressing the water challenges in the agriculture sector in Near East and North Africa (NENA)” is part of a series of background papers that supported the production of the regional publication "State of Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW) in the Near East and North Africa Region". The paper reports on the issues, responses and monitoring progress in relation to supporting the region to maintain local agricultural production with less water.

Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic-induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich. Moreover, food insecurity in MENA has been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making.

In order to address long-standing economic challenges, in 2016 the Government of Egypt (GOE) put in place a major economic reform program to restore macroeconomic stability and to promote inclusive growth. As a result, there are early signs that the economy is rebounding and Egypt’s economic outlook is becoming more favorable. However, it is less clear how the ongoing reform program is affecting households, especially the poor. To shed light on this question, this paper uses an economy-wide model to estimate the distributional impacts of the energy subsidy cuts in 2014, 2016, and 2017, the currency devaluation at the end of 2016, and the expected complete phasing out of energy subsidies over the coming years.