Allocation Models And Their Use In Economic Planning

Three different lines of approach have contributed to the theory of optimal planning. One approach considers the problem from the view-point of a national government and its adviser, the econometrician planning speci alist. The government can, if this is thought to be desirable, stimulate investment in certain directions and discourage other economic activities. By various fiscal devices, it can influence both the total level and the distribution of investment funds over different sectors of production. Also, in many countries, a public agency plays some kind of coordinat ing role in the formulation of long-term plans for output by the enter prises sector; this may range from administrative direction in so-called centrally planned economies, to persuasion and advice in 'capitalist' economies. Accordingly, the public planner wishes to know what dis tribution of the nation's resources would be 'optimal'. This leads to the construction of various models which may be described under the general heading 'input-output type models'. This type of model has been largely developed by practitioners, among whom Sandee [B2] is probably the most outstanding and the earliest. A later, well-developed example of a model based on this approach is, for example, the Czech model by Cerny et al. [Bl]. A second approach considers the problem from the point of view of the private entrepreneur and his adviser, the manager and financial accountant.

Three different lines of approach have contributed to the theory of optimal planning. One approach considers the problem from the view-point of a national government and its adviser, the econometrician planning speci alist. The government can, if this is thought to be desirable, stimulate investment in certain directions and discourage other economic activities. By various fiscal devices, it can influence both the total level and the distribution of investment funds over different sectors of production. Also, in many countries, a public agency plays some kind of coordinat ing role in the formulation of long-term plans for output by the enter prises sector; this may range from administrative direction in so-called centrally planned economies, to persuasion and advice in 'capitalist' economies. Accordingly, the public planner wishes to know what dis tribution of the nation's resources would be 'optimal'. This leads to the construction of various models which may be described under the general heading 'input-output type models'. This type of model has been largely developed by practitioners, among whom Sandee [B2] is probably the most outstanding and the earliest. A later, well-developed example of a model based on this approach is, for example, the Czech model by Cerny et al. [Bl]. A second approach considers the problem from the point of view of the private entrepreneur and his adviser, the manager and financial accountant.

This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in such a thing as the 'optimal' plan. The possible result of bad planning or no planning at all, for instance massive unemployment, sudden financial crises, unused capital equipment, or the production of unsalable goods is agreed to be undesirable. Programming methods may of course be needed, if only for having a systematic algorithm to find a solution that avoids this kind of 'obvious' non-optimality. However, the main emphasis is on forecasting models.

This book describes a system of mathematical models and methods that can be used to analyze real economic and managerial decisions and to improve their effectiveness. Application areas include: management of development and operation budgets, assessment and management of economic systems using an energy entropy approach, equation of exchange rates and forecasting foreign exchange operations, evaluation of innovative projects, monitoring of governmental programs, risk management of investment processes, decisions on the allocation of resources, and identification of competitive industrial clusters. The proposed methods and models were tested on the example of Kazakhstan’s economy, but the generated solutions will be useful for applications at other levels and in other countries. Regarding your book "Mathematical Methods and Models in Economics", I am impressed because now it is time when "econometrics" is becoming more appreciated by economists and by schools that are the hosts or employers of modern economists. ... Your presented results really impressed me. John F. Nash, Jr., Princeton University, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences The book is within my scope of interest because of its novelty and practicality. First, there is a need for realistic modeling of complex systems, both natural and artificial that conclude computer and economic systems. There has been an ongoing effort in developing models dealing with complexity and incomplete knowledge. Consequently, it is clear to recognize the contribution of Mutanov to encapsulate economic modeling with emphasis on budgeting and innovation. Secondly, the method proposed by Mutanov has been verified by applying to the case of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with her vibrant emerging economy. Thirdly, Chapter 5 of the book is of particular interest for the computer technology community because it deals with innovation. In summary, the book of Mutanov should become one of the outstanding recognized pragmatic guides for dealing with innovative systems. Andrzej Rucinski, University of New Hampshire This book is unique in its theoretical findings and practical applicability. The book is an illuminating study based on an applied mathematical model which uses methods such as linear programming and input-output analysis. Moreover, this work demonstrates the author’s great insight and academic brilliance in the fields of finance, technological innovations and marketing vis-à-vis the market economy. From both theoretical and practical standpoint, this work is indeed a great achievement. Yeon Cheon Oh, President of Seoul National University

Textbook on economic planning theory - discusses the concept of the planned economy and problems and techniques in short term (incl. Price-guided, non price and mixed planning procedures) and long term planning, social preferences, etc., including economic models. Bibliography pp. 399 to 403, and references.

Reorientation from economic controls to a market-based approach led to significant changes in the economic policy of developing countries in the 1980s. Yet, with governments continuing to exercise economic management to accelerate growth beyond that achieved by market forces, techniques and models of development planning are still an integral feature of development policy management. Development Policy and Planning provides a non-technical explanation of the main techniques and models used for economic policy formulation. Each technique is illustrated in application through practical examples.

At the end of 1992, things will never again be the same inside the European Economic Community (EEC), because, as that year draws to a close, the aims of the Single Act of European Union (SAEU), which became law in July, this year, will have become effective - thus creating a 'real' Common Market. This will mean that there will no longer be any obstacles to the free movement of goods between the Member States. Equally, and for the first time in the EEC's history, internal capital movements will be absolutely free, there will no longer be any exchange controls and it will be possible to freely establish financial services between EEC countries. Likewise, as currently being proposed by Lord Cockfield, wide variations in the levels of value added tax (VAT) between Member States will not be allowed. Also, in the case ~f the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), it will no longer be possible (nor even necessary) to have the monetary compensatory amounts (MCA's). All these changes - but especially the increased freedom in capital movements - will have profound consequences for the different regions of the Community and it will be desirable to have a much more dynamic Regional Policy before 1993. Last, but by no means least, a greater number of decisions inside the Community will be made by majority voting and the Parliament will be endowed with enhanced powers.

It was Lenin's genius to recognize the importance of [socialist] system with all the trappings of embellishing the democracy. If the people want a constitution. give them one. and even include the bill of rights. If they want a parliament, give them that too. And a system of courts. If they want a federal system create that myth as well. Above all, let them have e 1 ecti ons, for the act of voti ng is what the common man most clearly associates with democracy. Give them all these, but make sure that they have no effect on how things are run. - G. Warren Nutter Most research by Western scholars has emphasized macroeconomics (and to a considerable extent still does) as the method of analysis and growth rates as a standard for evaluating the performance of different economies. In the early 1960s Nutter raised questions about the reported growth rates in socialist states, the importance of growth policies for human welfare, and the abil ity of macroeconomi cs to enhance our understandi ng of soci a 1 and economic processes. In his work, Nutter used the standard price theory adjusted to incorporate the incentive effects of property rights in resources. He was casti gated for defyi ng the traditi ona 1 wi sdom. Not surprisingly, history has validated Nutter's theoretical framework and his conclusions.