Analysis For Public Decisions

Monograph on the methodology of public policy analysis in the context of government policy decision making in the USA - includes references.

Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.

This book proposes a model for understanding how innovative policy decisions are taken in complex political and organizational systems as well as the possible strategies that the promoter of the innovation can employ in order to maximize the probability of successful adoption and implementation. It presents a conceptual framework for the analysis of decisional situations in order to design the most appropriate strategies for overcoming conflict (e.g. of the NIMBY variety) and/or increasing the engagement of potentially interested actors. The book includes a template for decisional case studies, a protocol for the definition of a decisional strategy, and an exercise in decisional analysis.

First published in 1998, this volume examines how super-optimum decisions involve finding alternatives to controversies whereby Conservatives, Liberals, or other major groups can all come out ahead of their best initial expectations simultaneously. This book is organised in terms of concepts, methods, causes, process, substance, and the policy studies profession. Concepts clarify that policy evaluation traditionally involves: (1) Goals to be achieved; (2) Alternatives available for achieving them; (3) Relations between goals and alternatives; (4) Drawing a conclusion as to the best alternative in light of the goals, alternatives, and relations; and (5) Analysing how the conclusion would change if there were changes in the goals, alternatives, or relations. Super-optimizing also involves five related steps, but with the following improvements: (1) Goals are designed as conservative, liberal, or neutral; (2) Alternatives get the same designations; (3) Relations are simplified to indicate which alternatives are relatively high or low on each goal; (4) The conclusion involves arriving at an alternative that does better on Goal A than Alternative A, and simultaneously better on Goal B than Alternative B; and (5) The fifth step involves analysing the super-optimum or win-win alternative in terms of its feasibility as to the economic, technological, psychological, political, administrative, and legal matters.

Microeconomics for Public Decisions is a revision of the Apgar/Brown Microeconomics for Public Policy text. It was revised after conducting interviews with students and former students (now practitioners), and asking them what economic concepts and methods they use most frequently in their jobs. Microeconomics for Public Decisions is designed to focus on essential principles and analytical techniques for making decision that affect the public interest. It blends theory with applications and discussions so students will understand how and why microeconomics is important, how to perform economic analyses, and how to evaluate economic analyses performed by others.