Anomalies In Net Present Value Returns And Polynomials And Regret Theory In Decision Making

This book explores why Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) are not necessarily accurate or efficient tools for valuation and decision-making. The author specifically addresses the biases and framing effects inherent in the NPV/MIRR/IRR model and in related approaches such as Adjusted Present Value (APV), Net Future Value (NFV), and by extension, Polynomials. In doing so, the book presents new ways of solving higher order polynomials using invariants and homomorphisms and explains why the “Fundamental Theorem of Algebra”, the Binomial Theorem and the “Descartes Sign Rule” are unreliable. Chapters also discuss how International Asset Pricing Theory (IAPT) and Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Models (ICAPM) can produce inaccurate results in certain circumstances. The conditions under which ICAPM and IAPT may be accurate are described; as well as why those conditions cannot, or are unlikely to, exist. The conditions under which negative interest rates may exist or are justified are also outlined. Moreover, the author explains why traditional Consumption-Savings-Investment-Production models of allocation can be inefficient, and then introduces a new model of allocation that can be applied to individuals, households and companies. Finally, the book explains why the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution is a flawed concept and introduces the Marginal Rate of Intertemporal Joint Substitution as a solution.

Traditional research about Financial Stability and Sustainable Growth typically omits Earnings Management (as a broad class of misconduct), Complex Systems Theory, Mechanism Design Theory, Public Health, psychology issues, and the externalities and psychological effects of Fintech. Inequality, Environmental Pollution, Earnings Management opportunities, the varieties of complex Financial Instruments, Fintech, Regulatory Fragmentation, Regulatory Capture and real-financial sector-linkages are growing around the world, and these factors can have symbiotic relationships. Within Complex System theory framework, this book analyzes these foregoing issues, and introduces new behaviour theories, Enforcement Dichotomies, and critiques of models, regulations and theories in several dimensions. The issues analyzed can affect markets, and evolutions of systems, decision-making, "nternal Markets and risk-perception within government regulators, operating companies and investment entities, and thus they have Public Policy implications. The legal analysis uses applicable US case-law and statutes (which have been copied by many countries, and are similar to those of many common-law countries). Using Qualitative Reasoning, Capital Dynamics Theory (a new approach introduced in this book), Critical Theory and elements of Mechanism Design Theory, the book aims to enhance cross-disciplinary analysis of the above-mentioned issues; and to help researchers build better systems/Artificial-Intelligence/mathematical models in Financial Stability, Portfolio Management, Policy-Analysis, Asset Pricing, Contract Theory, Enforcement Theory and Fraud Detection. The primary audience for this book consists of university Professors, PHD students and PHD degree-holders (in industries, government agencies, financial services companies and research institutes). The book can be used as a primary or supplementary textbook for graduate courses in Regulation; Capital Markets; Law & Economics, International Political Economy and or Mechanism Design (Applied Math, Operations Research, Computer Science or Finance).

Indices, index funds and ETFs are grossly inaccurate and inefficient and affect more than €120 trillion worth of securities, debts and commodities worldwide. This book analyzes the mathematical/statistical biases, misrepresentations, recursiveness, nonlinear risk and homomorphisms inherent in equity, debt, risk-adjusted, options-based, CDS and commodity indices – and by extension, associated index funds and ETFs. The book characterizes the “Popular-Index Ecosystems,” a phenomenon that provides artificial price-support for financial instruments, and can cause systemic risk, financial instability, earnings management and inflation. The book explains why indices and strategic alliances invalidate Third-Generation Prospect Theory (PT3), related approaches and most theories of Intertemporal Asset Pricing. This book introduces three new decision models, and some new types of indices that are more efficient than existing stock/bond indices. The book explains why the Mean-Variance framework, the Put-Call Parity theorem, ICAPM/CAPM, the Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, Jensen’s Alpha, the Information Ratio, and DEA-Based Performance Measures are wrong. Leveraged/inverse ETFs and synthetic ETFs are misleading and inaccurate and non-legislative methods that reduce index arbitrage and ETF arbitrage are introduced.

Most research about financial stability and sustainable growth focuses on the financial sector and macroeconomics and neglects the real sector, microeconomics and psychology issues. Real-sector and financial-sectors linkages are increasing and are a foundation of economic/social/environmental/urban sustainability, given financial crises, noise, internet, “transition economics”, disintermediation, demographics and inequality around the world. Within complex systems theory framework, this book analyses some multi-sided mechanisms and risk-perception that can have symbiotic relationships with financial stability, systemic risk and/or sustainable growth. Within the context of Regret Minimization, MN-Transferable Utility and WTAL, new theories-of-the-firm are developed that consider sustainable growth, price stability, globalization, financial stability and birth-to-death evolutions of firms. This book introduces new behaviour theories pertaining to real estate and intangibles, which can affect the evolutions of risk-taking and risk perception within organizations and investment entities. The chapters address elements of the dilemma of often divergent risk perceptions of, and risk-taking by corporate executives, regulators and investment managers.

Economic recessions, social networks, environmental damage in several large countries (eg. China, Brazil, U.S.), the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2015 and cross-border spillovers continue to significantly affect economic systems, financial markets, social structures and environmental compliance worldwide. These have rekindled economists’ and policy-makers’ interest in the relationships among constitutions, risk regulation, foreign aid, political systems, government size, credit expansion and sustainable growth. Risk regulation remains highly ineffective as manifested by the failures of new financial regulations and government stimulus programs that were implemented during 2007-2020 in many developed countries and emerging markets countries. This book, the first of two volumes, addresses these issues in the context of the role of constitutional economics and economic psychology as tools for national and global sustainable growth and risk management. Furthermore, this volume analyzes the often symbiotic relationship between alternative sets of legal-institutional-constitutional rules that constrain the choices and activities of economic and political agents on one hand, and sustainable growth, financial regulation and the risk management of financial institutions on the other; and reviews the effects of constitutions and legal institutions on market dynamics (real estate; fixed-income, stocks; etc.) including volatility, market depth and liquidity. This book will help researchers develop better artificial intelligence and decision-systems models of geopolitical risk, public policy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly relevant to investment managers, boards-of-directors and government officials.

Many emerging market countries are bank-based economies and are increasingly affected by geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar dynamics, regulations, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), MNCs (that often function like international organizations), social networks, labor dynamics, cross-border spillovers and the inefficient expansion of formal/informal microfinance. Country risks, informal economies (that account for 20-50 percent of the national economy of many emerging market countries), investor protection, enforcement commitment, compliance costs, sustainability (environmental, social, economic and political sustainability), economic growth, political stability, financial stability, geopolitical risk, social networks, household economics, inequality and international trade outcomes can vary dramatically across many DECs and LDECs due to these phenomena. The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the many problems inherent in political systems, economic policy and governments’ emergency powers during pandemics/epidemics and economic/financial crisis. This second volume focuses on geopolitical risks that are intertwined with constitutional political economy and labor issues, alongside addressing some of the financial and constitutional crises that occurred in Europe, Asia and the U.S. during 2007-2020. This book provides analysis of complex systems and the preferences and reasoning of state/government and corporate actors in order to develop better artificial intelligence and decision-system models of geopolitical risk, public policy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly important decision factors for investment managers, boards-of-directors and government officials.

Current and future issues in the global accounting/consulting, business opportunity, and credit rating agency (CRA) industries can have significant multiplier-effects on international trade, sustainable growth, and compliance (as physical phenomena). These three industries are among the most international and human-capital-intensive of all service industries. In these industries, analysis of business models and industry dynamics can provide insights about how human-computer interaction (HCI) and contract theory affect the evolution of financial market ecosystems and cross-border information flows, and how business models, work-allocation mechanisms, and liability allocation can evolve to manage change. An often-overlooked issue is that non-performing loans (NPLs), sustainability, and CRA efficiency can be significantly affected by business processes, corporate strategy, and HCI in industry ecosystems, multinational corporations (MNCs), and economic systems. Complex Systems and Sustainability in the Global Auditing, Consulting, and Credit Rating Agency Industries compares these three industries and introduces theories of public policy and “inter-business” processes. The book links industry structure, complex systems (including networks), behavioral game theory, structural changes, and antitrust problems to sustainability and the efficiency of pollution-remediation systems. The book introduces new “informal algorithms” and business/resource-allocation models that solve social-choice problems, and also contravene “impossibility theorems” that are at the core of modern computer science and mechanism design. This book is essential for professors and masters/PhD-level students and employees (in industry, financial services, research institutes, consulting firms, and government agencies) who are interested in industrial mathematics and theoretical computer science.

Essential reading for professional investors, risk managers, regulators, central bankers, and real estate professionals, Risk in the Global Real Estate Market: International Risk Regulation, Mechanism Design, Foreclosures, Title Systems, and REITs takes an international look at the ways in which U.S.-style constitutional laws, financial laws, and real estate laws in various countries affect global economics and risk; and analyzes specific constraints that deter market development such as Asset Liability Matching, inappropriate financial products, land title systems, inefficient constitutions and human biases. The sub-prime mortgage crisis (that began around 2006) and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2010 disrupted the economies of various countries and exposed many of the psychological, social, and economic problems inherent in the legal/risk infrastructure for mortgages, land title systems, REITs, securitization, and pensions. In this remarkable new book, Michael Nwogugu explains how these processes and statutes are unconstitutional and inefficient, and how they influence demand for housing, real estate prices, retirement savings, household wealth, consumer disposable income, marriage opportunities, job markets, crime, and regional economic growth. The resulting major economic and public health problems have continued to reduce the quality-of-life of nations, and continue to cause permanent declines in wealth, increases in crime and delinquency, high divorce rates, depression, and inadequate job creation, among other problems. The book examines a range of fields—including mechanism design, psychology, risk finance, and corporate governance; and emphasizes Constitutional economics as a distinct dimension of risk analysis. Risk in the Global Real Estate Market makes a compelling case about how constitutional torts increase information asymmetry, transaction costs, agency problems, and compliance costs, as well as inefficiency in real estate transactions. These problems, the book argues, are not unique to the United States, but also affect Commonwealth countries and other nations that have developed regulations that are similar to, or are based on U.S. commercial, securities, and or constitutional laws. Risk in the Global Real Estate Market presents a novel analysis of the sub-prime crisis (that first began in 2006), the failure of securitization (CMBS/MBS) markets, the Global Financial Crisis, and socio-economic problems caused by traditional mortgages and securitization. The book reveals that many of the statutes and processes that define mortgages, foreclosures, securitization, and REITs in the United States (and many common-law countries and nations that have adopted American-style real estate regulations) are fundamentally unconstitutional and inefficient, and have lasting negative effects on consumer psychology, the demand for real estate, price discovery in property markets, economic growth, and quality of life. The book examines the nature of constitutional torts and property rights as the foundation for business transactions and economic growth within the context of risk regulation, interstate commerce, takings, and legislation. Risk in the Global Real Estate Market introduces new theories of consumer psychology and institutional dynamics in real estate transactions; presents new theories of takings, and also surveys psychology/psychiatry studies (based on data from various countries) that confirm the harmful effects of mortgages, securitization, and foreclosures. Using elements of mechanism design, Michael Nwogugu develops new efficient financial products (Mortgage-Alternatives products), and presents a policy framework for a unified “Mortgage-Alternatives” market for the CEE/CIS region and China. He also explains why Asset Liability Matching hinders lending, capital formation and risk management, especially in developing countries.