Anticipating A Nuclear Iran

This volume assumes the worst: a defensive, aggressive Iran already possesses a nuclear arsenal. How should the United States handle this threat, and can it deter the use of such weapons? Through three scenario models, this study explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post–Cold War world. The authors concentrate on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran’s military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran’s ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post–Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran’s nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.

Entessar & Afrasiabi’s Iran Nuclear Negotiations (Rowman & Littlefied, October 2015) offered a thorough analysis of the negotiation process between Iran and the 5+1 great powers about its nuclear program. This book essentially builds upon it, focusing this time on the final nuclear agreement, the ensuing debates around it, and its global and regional ramifications especially in the Middle East. The first section analyzes the agreement through the prism of international relations theories, using a constructivist-critical theory approach. This is followed by an overview of the intense debates in Iran, the West, and other parts of the world, on the nuclear agreement and its various pros and cons, not to mention the connected, yet separate Iran-IAEA agreement. The second section covers Iran’s foreign policy and its various priorities, looking in particular at the impact of the nuclear deal on the country’s external relations and orientations, contextualized in terms of pre-existing issues and concerns and the profound influence of the nuclear agreement on the perceptions of Iranian power in the region and beyond. Iran’s relations with its Arab, Turkish, Russian, and other neighbors are discussed, focusing on both the direct and indirect impact of the nuclear agreement on these relations, especially the paradoxical implications of the nuclear deal with respect to the non-nuclear crises in the Middle East, such as the Syria-Iraq crisis, and the re-alignments that have put Iran at the crossroads of East and West. Other issues covered include energy security, regional economic cooperation, the endemic sectarianism highlighted by Iran-Saudi competition, and the deadlock on the Middle East peace process. The third section then examines the issue of a Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone and the likely consequences of the Iran nuclear deal on this prospect, which, in turn, raises the issue of regional proliferation and counterproliferation. The last section explores some possible various scenarios and the challenges of implementation as a relatively long-term agreement, providing specific policy recommendations for the regional actors and the external powers that are stakeholders in the volatile Middle East.

Iran's nuclear program is one of this century's principal foreign policy challenges. Despite U.S., Israeli, and allied efforts, Iran has an extensive enrichment program and likely has the technical capacity to produce at least one nuclear bomb if it so chose. This study assesses U.S. policy options, identifies a way forward, and considers how the United States might best mitigate the negative international effects of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Contemporary fears of rogue state nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism pose unique challenges for the global community. This book offers a unique approach by examining why states that have the military capability to severely damage a proliferating state’s nuclear program instead choose to pursue coercive diplomacy. The author argues cognitive psychological influences, including the trauma derived from national tragedies like the September 11th attacks and the Holocaust, and a history of armed conflict increase the threat perceptions of foreign policy decision-makers when confronting a state perceived to be challenging the existing power structure by pursuing a nuclear weapon. The powerful state’s degree of perceived threat, combined with its national security policies, military power projection capabilities, and public support then influence whether it will take no action, use coercive diplomacy/sanctions, or employ military force to address the weaker state’s nuclear ambitions.

Coalition Management and Escalation Control in a Multinuclear World examines the impact of new technologies on twenty-first-century crisis management and armed conflict, as well as the unprecedented number and types of actors involved in current and potential flash-points. The book's basic thesis is that new technologies are changing how wars are fought and providing a broadening range of escalation options. Cyber weapons and artificial intelligence, as well as social media, blur traditional escalation thresholds with important consequences for deterrence. Nuclear weapons possessors, especially nations and powers new to their use, may have differing strategies concerning how, when, why, or where such weapons should be used either for purposes of deterrence or as actual warfighting instruments. Today's global map differs drastically from all previous eras, not only in the types and numbers of actors but also in the level of lethality, as well as the range and accuracy of weapons available with which to threaten or actually conduct battle. A world of Great Power competition, together with non-state armed groups contains risks for miscalculation including the possibility of catalytic warfare.

Providing a well-balanced and impartial perspective on the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this book contributes to a better understanding of the current foreign policy of Iran, especially its internal and external determinants. Combining theoretical and practical aspects, it provides readers with a short analysis of Iranian foreign policy. The first part is dedicated to the Pahlavi era between 1925–1979. The second consists of three chapters covering issues relating to ideological and institutional aspects of Iranian foreign policy after 1979. The last part incorporates eight case studies which best present both regional and global dimensions. This comprehensive study contains a synthesis of views and opinions of commentators and scholars who often represent contradictory perspectives. Serving as a key reference and starting point for further studies, this book will be of interest to students and researchers studying Iranian foreign policy, international relations, and Middle Eastern studies.

With the advent of the Trump Administration, relations between Iran and the United States have become increasingly conflictual to the point that a future war between the two countries is a realistic possibility. President Trump has unilaterally withdrawn the US from the historic Iran nuclear accord and has re-imposed the nuclear-related sanctions, which had been removed as a result of that accord. Reflecting a new determined US effort to curb Iran's hegemonic behavior throughout the Middle East, Trump's Iran policy has all the markings of a sharp discontinuity in the Iran containment strategy of the previous six US administrations. The regime change policy, spearheaded by a hawkish cabinet with a long history of antipathy toward the Iranian government, has become the most salient feature of US policy toward Iran under President Trump. This turn in US foreign policy has important consequences not just for Iran but also for Iran's neighbors and prospects of long-term stability in the Persian Gulf and beyond. This book seeks to examine the fluid dynamic of US-Iran relations in the Trump era by providing a social scientific understanding of the pattern of hostility and antagonism between Washington and Tehran and the resulting spiraling conflict that may lead to a disastrous war in the region.

Is the world ready for nuclear Jihad? Showdown with Nuclear Iran is a gripping and detailed exposé of Iran's relentless pursuit of atomic weapons and its apocalyptic goal of wiping Israel off the face of the earth. Michael D. Evans, who has been working in the Middle East for the last three decades, cuts through the official lies an ddeceptions of the Iranian government and reveals in terrifying detail: how close the radical Islamic republic is to fulfilling its nuclear ambitions how Iran's president believes he has a divine mission to destroy Israel and cripple the United States in a nuclear holocaust and what America must do to avert this global disaster With the Middle East poised at the brink, Showdown with Nuclear Iran provides much-needed perspective on the current crisis and the dire threat that a nuclear Iran poses to the existence of Israel and global stability. "The most detailed account of the Iranian regime's determination, policy, and plan to acquire military nuclear capabilities. Mike Evans delves into the roots of the Iranian revolution and explores Iranian history to better understand a major challenge to the western world. he compellingly analyzes policy options for confronting this threat." ?Lt. Gen. Moshe Ya'Alon, red., former Chief of Staff, Israeli Defense Force