Anticipating Ethnic Conflict

This report provides a practical tool--a guidebook and a methodology to follow--to help intelligence analysts determine the long-term potential for communitarian and ethnic conflict. It is based on a conceptual model of group conflict. The three-stage model traces the development of ethnic and communitarian strife, beginning with the conditions that may lead to the formation of an ethnic group, then the group's mobilization for political action, and ultimately its competition with the state. The main body of the handbook is formatted as a series of questions and guidelines for the analyst to consider while preparing an assessment. An appendix provides a full theoretical explanation of the model. As its goal is to provide a tool to help intelligence analysts predict whether a competition between an ethnic group and the state will end in violence, the model supplies a series of matrices to help identify the conditions that may lead to ethnic and communitarian strife.

This report is the final product of a year-long project entitled "Ethnic Conflict and the Processes of State Breakdown: Improving Army Planning and Preparation," which sought to help Army intelligence analysts who monitor intrastate (including ethnically based) conflict potential around the world. The work of these analysts has grown more important since the end of the Cold War, as the U.S. Army has become increasingly engaged in peacekeeping and peace enforcement operations aimed at preventing, quelling, or dealing with the consequences of ethnic or communitarian strife in Somalia, Rwanda, Macedonia, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Facing the serious prospect of further involvement in such conflicts in the years ahead, the Army has to grapple with the problem of what such intrastate operations imply for its training, equipping, doctrine, and deployment. While the primary mission of the Army and the U.S. armed forces in general will remain the fighting of wars and protecting U.S. interests in the world, peace operations (ranging from traditional peacekeeping, to peace enforcement, to humanitarian assistance) will place increasing demands on the U.S. armed forces in the next 10-15 years, with the Army (and the Marines) most affected. To put it bluntly, there "will be more Somalias, Rwandas, Haitis and Burundis in the future, " and the Army will be called upon to deal with some of them. Since the end of the Cold War, the Army has been called upon 25 times to conduct peacekeeping and other humanitarian missions and, as the Army Chief of Staff General Dennis Reimer recently noted, "that is a 300 percent increase and that trend is expected to continue."

Intrastate communitarian strife, often dubbed ethnic conflict, has gained much attention in the aftermath of the Cold War. Certainly, intrastate conflict has been by far the dominant form of strife in the world in the 1990s. This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict. The model is not a mechanistic tool, but a process-based heuristic device with a threefold purpose: (1) to order the analyst's thinking about the logic and dynamics of potential ethnically based violence and to aid in defining the information-collection requirements of such an analysis; (2) to provide a general conceptual framework about how ethnic grievances form and group mobilization occurs and how these could lead to violence under certain conditions; and (3) to assist the intelligence community with the long-range assessment of possible ethnic strife. The theoretical model explains how the potential for strife should be understood; how the potential for strife is transformed, through mobilization, into a likelihood of strife; and how extant state capacities interact through a process of strategic bargaining with mobilized groups to produce, under certain conditions, varying degrees of strife. Use of the model is demonstrated through its application to four case studies, two retrospective (Yugoslavia and South Africa) and two prospective (Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia).

Documents the decline in ethnic conflict in most world regions since its peak in the early 1990s and discusses the growth of international responsibilities for anticipating and responding to ethnic conflict and humanitarian disasters. The four cases-- Kurds in Iraq, indigenous peoples in Nicaragua, Chinese in Malaysia, and Turks in Germany--are updated to 2001. Peoples and countries at greatest risk of future conflict are highlighted and strategies of response are suggested.

The wave of ethnic conflict that has recently swept across parts of Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Africa has led many political observers to fear that these conflicts are contagious. Initial outbreaks in such places as Bosnia, Chechnya, and Rwanda, if not contained, appear capable of setting off epidemics of catastrophic proportions. In this volume, David Lake and Donald Rothchild have organized an ambitious, sophisticated exploration of both the origins and spread of ethnic conflict, one that will be useful to policymakers and theorists alike. The editors and contributors argue that ethnic conflict is not caused directly by intergroup differences or centuries-old feuds and that the collapse of the Soviet Union did not simply uncork ethnic passions long suppressed. They look instead at how anxieties over security, competition for resources, breakdown in communication with the government, and the inability to make enduring commitments lead ethnic groups into conflict, and they consider the strategic interactions that underlie ethnic conflict and its effective management. How, why, and when do ethnic conflicts either diffuse by precipitating similar conflicts elsewhere or escalate by bringing in outside parties? How can such transnational ethnic conflicts best be managed? Following an introduction by the editors, which lays a strong theoretical foundation for approaching these questions, Timur Kuran, Stuart Hill, Donald Rothchild, Colin Cameron, Will H. Moore, and David R. Davis examine the diffusion of ideas across national borders and ethnic alliances. Without disputing that conflict can spread, James D. Fearon, Stephen M. Saideman, Sandra Halperin, and Paula Garb argue that ethnic conflict today is primarily a local phenomenon and that it is breaking out in many places simultaneously for similar but largely independent reasons. Stephen D. Krasner, Daniel T. Froats, Cynthia S. Kaplan, Edmond J. Keller, Bruce W. Jentleson, and I. William Zartman focus on the management of transnational ethnic conflicts and emphasize the importance of domestic confidence-building measures, international intervention, and preventive diplomacy.

This major and timely collection addresses one of the world's most visible and tragic problems: ethnic conflict and its regulation. It begins with a guide to the primary methods used to eliminate or manag eethnic conflict, and is followed by a global sample of case studies written by leading authorities in their fields.

Ethnic conflict is the major form of mass political violence in the world today, and it has been since World War II. Dramatic acts of terrorism and calculated responses to them may distract the attention of policymakers and the public, but ethnic and nationalist conflict continues to pose the greatest challenge to peace and security across the globe. Causes of such conflict and ideas about how to address it are hotly debated in the literature that has emerged over the past fifteen years. This volume offers a unique overview of research and policy approaches to ethnic conflicts. It is the first book to bring together experienced policymakers and key scholars from all disciplines. They debate how to best understand the rise and escalation of ethnic conflict, assess different strategies for peacemaking, mediation, and reconciliation, and evaluate the prospects for conflict management through institutional design. In contrast with a more enthusiastic assessment of the willingness and capacity to successfully intervene in ethnic conflict, this volume documents the new realism that has emerged over the past decade. It recognizes the complex and protracted nature of such conflicts and demands a multifaceted, case-by-case approach sustained by long-term political engagement. Published in co-operation with the Center for Development Research, University of Bonn.

A definitive global survey of the interaction of race, ethnicity, nationalism and politics, this handbook blends theoretically grounded, rigorous analysis with empirical illustrations, to provide a state-of-the art overview of the contemporary debates on one of the most pervasive international security challenges today. The contributors to this volume offer a 360-degree perspective on ethnic conflict: from the theoretical foundations of nationalism and ethnicity, to the causes and consequences of ethnic conflict, and to the various strategies adopted in response to it. Without privileging any specific explanation of why ethnic conflict happens at a specific place and time or why attempts at preventing or settling it might fail or succeed, the Routledge Handbook of Ethnic Conflict enables readers to gain better insights into such defining moments in post-Cold War international history as the disintegrations of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia and their respective consequences and the genocide in Rwanda, as well as the relative success of conflict settlement efforts in Northern Ireland, Macedonia, and Aceh. By contributing to understanding the varied and multiple causes of ethnic conflicts and to learning from the successes and failures of its prevention and settlement, the Handbook makes a powerful case that ethnic conflicts are neither unavoidable nor unresolvable, but rather that they require careful analysis and thoughtful and measured responses.