Applied Discrete Choice Modelling

Originally published in 1981. Discrete-choice modelling is an area of econometrics where significant advances have been made at the research level. This book presents an overview of these advances, explaining the theory underlying the model, and explores its various applications. It shows how operational choice models can be used, and how they are particularly useful for a better understanding of consumer demand theory. It discusses particular problems connected with the model and its use, and reports on the authors’ own empirical research. This is a comprehensive survey of research developments in discrete choice modelling and its applications.

A fully updated second edition of this popular introduction to applied choice analysis, written for graduate students, researchers, professionals and consultants.

This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Almost without exception, everything human beings undertake involves a choice. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the development and application of quantitative statistical methods to study choices made by individuals with the purpose of gaining a better understanding both of how choices are made and of forecasting future choice responses. In this primer the authors provide an unintimidating introduction to the main techniques of choice analysis and include detail on themes such as data collection and preparation, model estimation and interpretation and the design of choice experiments. A companion website to the book provides practice data sets and software to estimate the main discrete choice models such as multinomial logit, nested logit and mixed logit. This primer will be an invaluable resource to students as well as of immense value to consultants and professionals, researchers and anyone else interested in choice analysis and modelling.

Table of contents

This tutorial presents a hands-on introduction to a new discrete choice modeling approach based on the behavioral notion of regret-minimization. This so-called Random Regret Minimization-approach (RRM) forms a counterpart of the Random Utility Maximization-approach (RUM) to discrete choice modeling, which has for decades dominated the field of choice modeling and adjacent fields such as transportation, marketing and environmental economics. Being as parsimonious as conventional RUM-models and compatible with popular software packages, the RRM-approach provides an alternative and appealing account of choice behavior. Rather than providing highly technical discussions as usually encountered in scholarly journals, this tutorial aims to allow readers to explore the RRM-approach and its potential and limitations hands-on and based on a detailed discussion of examples. This tutorial is written for students, scholars and practitioners who have a basic background in choice modeling in general and RUM-modeling in particular. It has been taken care of that all concepts and results should be clear to readers that do not have an advanced knowledge of econometrics.

In recent years, airline practitioners and academics have started to explore new ways to model airline passenger demand using discrete choice methods. This book provides an introduction to discrete choice models and uses extensive examples to illustrate how these models have been used in the airline industry. These examples span network planning, revenue management, and pricing applications. Numerous examples of fundamental logit modeling concepts are covered in the text, including probability calculations, value of time calculations, elasticity calculations, nested and non-nested likelihood ratio tests, etc. The core chapters of the book are written at a level appropriate for airline practitioners and graduate students with operations research or travel demand modeling backgrounds. Given the majority of discrete choice modeling advancements in transportation evolved from urban travel demand studies, the introduction first orients readers from different backgrounds by highlighting major distinctions between aviation and urban travel demand studies. This is followed by an in-depth treatment of two of the most common discrete choice models, namely the multinomial and nested logit models. More advanced discrete choice models are covered, including mixed logit models and generalized extreme value models that belong to the generalized nested logit class and/or the network generalized extreme value class. An emphasis is placed on highlighting open research questions associated with these models that will be of particular interest to operations research students. Practical modeling issues related to data and estimation software are also addressed, and an extensive modeling exercise focused on the interpretation and application of statistical tests used to guide the selection of a preferred model specification is included; the modeling exercise uses itinerary choice data from a major airline. The text concludes with a discussion of on-going customer modeling research in aviation. Discrete Choice Modelling and Air Travel Demand is enriched by a comprehensive set of technical appendices that will be of particular interest to advanced students of discrete choice modeling theory. The appendices also include detailed proofs of the multinomial and nested logit models and derivations of measures used to represent competition among alternatives, namely correlation, direct-elasticities, and cross-elasticities.