Are They All In The Same Boat The 2000 2001 Growth Slowdown And The G 7 Business Cycle Linkages

This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the exception and that the slowdown in 2000-2001 largely followed patterns seen in the past. The paper also identifies the international business cycle with an asymptotic dynamic factor model. Two global factors explain roughly 80 percent of the variance in G-7 output gaps at business cycle frequencies. The factor model decomposes the "common part" of national output fluctuations into two factors, one capturing the average G-7 cycle and one that corrects for phase and amplitude differences. We also found some evidence supporting the hypothesis that global shocks were the main force behind the slowdown in 2000-2001.

The integration of goods and financial markets has progressed on a global scale in recent years. Thus, the cyclical patterns in the world economy may have changed too. Against this background, experts in international economics analyze the synchronization of business cycles and their volatility in this book. Is there an European business cycle? What is the role of multinational corporations and monetary policy in transmitting business cycles? Further, they discuss the need and feasibility of internationally coordinating monetary and exchange rate policies and the quantitative effects of tax competition.

The process of Asia's rise to a position of eminence in global finance has accelerated in the wake of the international financial crisis. This volume intends to explore and understand the dynamics created by this process of transition.

Although still relatively closed, the Euro area economy is nevertheless subject to a broad range of economic impacts originating from outside its borders. This book aims to improve our understanding of how, and to what extent, such external developments affect the Euro area. Using a broad range of methodologies and techniques, the chapters analyse the various channels that connect the Euro area to its external environment; most notably trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages. The result is that the interaction between the Euro area and its 'external dimension' is shown to be more complex and extensive than had previously been thought. With contributions from both academics and professionals, this volume will be an invaluable source of information for researchers and policy-makers concerned with the interaction between regional European integration and globalization.

It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.

Looking at historical cross-country interactions, this book examines the role of the US in the world economy. Illustrating that US shocks tend to have a global nature and that Monetary Union only partially shelters the Euro area from its external environment, the US should fully assume its responsibility, minimizing shock transmission.

The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations of economic activity about its long term growth trend. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), alternating with periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. One of the government's main roles is to smooth out the business cycle and reduce its fluctuations. To call those alternances 'cycles' is rather misleading as they don't tend to repeat at fairly regular time intervals. Most observers find that their lengths (from peak to peak, or from trough to trough) vary, so that cycles are not mechanical in their regularity. Since no two cycles are alike in their details, some economists dispute the existence of cycles and use the word 'fluctuations' (or the like) instead. Others see enough similarities between cycles that the cycle is a valid basis of studying the state of the economy. A key question is whether or not there are similar mechanisms that generate recessions and/or booms that exist in capitalist economies so that the dynamics that appear as a cycle will be seen again and again. This new book presents leading-edge research in this field.

Against the background of the introduction of the Euro in 1999, France, Germany and Italy have recently experienced higher divergence in terms of GDP growth. Based on a set of original papers produced by a team of economists from the three main National Central Banks of the Euro area this book analyses the latest developments in three important European economies in a broad perspective, using modern econometric techniques.