Asia Capital Markets Monitor

The two-speed global economy continues to favor emerging Asian markets. After an early year correction, the region's markets are poised to gain on sound fundamentals. The Asia Capital Markets Monitor reviews emerging Asia's stock, bond, and currency markets and assesses their outlook, risks, and policy implications. This issue includes a special section on financial integration and capital flow volatility in emerging Asia: issues and policies.

The size of emerging East Asia's local currency bond market reached USD17.2 trillion at the end of June 2020. In the second quarter of 2020 the market expanded by 5.0% quarter on-quarter and 15.5% year-on-year. This report provides an update on financial conditions and market developments amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. It also discusses recent trends and changes in the investor profile in local currency bond markets in Asia; the rising use of digital payment during the pandemic; and environmental, social, and governance investments and their resilience in the COVID-19 era.

Emerging and frontier financial markets in the Asia-Pacific region have experienced significant changes in recent years in areas affecting regulation, market participants, and products. This collection presents perspectives from authors in local markets who provide their analysis of the history, current development, and future outlook for 11 countries: Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. The brief should be particularly valuable for prospective investors interested in learning about regulatory developments, market structure, and financial history in the region.

In addition to market reports, this issue of the Asia Bond Monitor discusses the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on emerging market currency rates as well as the growing importance of domestic capital markets. It also looks at the progress of global efforts to transition away from the use of the London Interbank Offered Rate.

The fiscal crisis in Europe continues to cast a shadow on the global economic outlook, and the securities issued by the United States and European nations are losing their status as traditional safe assets and reserve value. As a result, investors and governments are looking to diversify their investment portfolio with emerging markets, particularly Asian bonds. Such renewed interest has led to excessive capital inflows, making the region increasingly vulnerable to external shocks. However, on the other hand, it leads to abundant liquidity in the capital markets, which reduces financing costs and expands investment opportunities. This book analyses this dilemma and proposes that development of local bond markets and achieving greater market depth and interconnectedness is the best bet to prevent the reoccurrence of a currency crisis like 1997. It thus, assesses the progress achieved thus far in capital market integration in Asia, and compares it with its global peers. The study also assesses the degree to which volatility in equity and bond market returns, driven by financial turmoil originating at both the regional and global levels, spills over into emerging Asia domestic equity and bond markets. The results of this analysis indicate that such spill-over significantly impacts both domestic equity and bond markets in the region. This finding suggests that on-going regional capital market integration initiatives should take into account the risk of contagion that regional financial integration presents, and introduce measures for mitigating such risk as a means of ensuring financial stability in the region.

This edition of the Asia Bond Monitor reviews developments in emerging East Asian local currency bond markets and discusses how the financial sector can help fund the fight against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Local currency bonds outstanding in emerging East Asian markets climbed to USD16.3 trillion in the first quarter of 2020. Risks remain heavily tilted to the downside given uncertainty about the effects of COVID-19. A section on the financial sector and COVID-19 discusses the use of pandemic bonds and social bonds to mobilize resources and of fintech to support inclusive growth and pandemic resilience. A chapter on financial architecture and innovation examines whether banks or equity and debt markets are more conducive to innovation. It finds that a market-based financial system is more conducive.