Asian Development Outlook 2018 Update

The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in the region are upbeat, buoyed by favorable demand at home and abroad. A strong performance in 2017 reflected a surge in exports, which will likely abate this year and next, and rapidly expanding domestic demand. While the outlook is for steady growth, risks to it are decidedly on the downside: Trade friction could weaken recently deepened trade links, tightening US monetary policy could diminish investment in developing Asia, and rising domestic private debt may hamper growth. New technologies drive higher productivity, the foundation for economic growth, better-paid jobs, and poverty reduction. The latest technologies in robotics and artificial intelligence may threaten some jobs, however, and leave less-skilled workers behind. To maximize gains in productivity while safeguarding social welfare, governments in developing Asia should protect workers but not preserve particular jobs. Meanwhile, they should facilitate the countervailing forces in new technologies that generate new jobs. Dealing with the downsides of new technology requires synchronized effort on skills development, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution.

Growth in developing Asia is holding up against external headwinds. Robust domestic demand supported the region's large economies, and oil prices above expectations boosted prospects for many oil and gas exporters. Consumer prices are picking up with rising global fuel and food prices, but moderate inflation in several Asian economies has kept the regional average in check. Downside risks to the outlook are intensifying. If tightened more than investors expect, US monetary policy could accelerate capital outflow from Asian economies and put further depreciation pressure on regional currencies. Any escalation of the trade conflict could disrupt cross-border production links. Most economies remain robust, but policy makers must be ready to respond. In the years since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998, sound domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and buoyant external conditions have supported developing Asia's rise to become an engine of the global economy. However, the changing global landscape poses new challenges to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability. This Update explores the key pockets of vulnerability and the policy options available to manage them. To fortify the region against heightened uncertainty, policy makers may need to deploy the full range of policy tools, while forging and safeguarding the sound fundamentals that support economic, social, and political stability.

Growth in developing Asia is moderating but remains robust. As global trade slows and investment weakens, regional growth forecasts are trimmed from Asian Development Outlook 2019 by 0.3 percentage points for 2019 and by 0.1 points for 2020 compared to April forecasts. The revisions reflect gloomier prospects for international trade and evidence of slowing growth in the advanced economies and the People's Republic of China, as well as in India and the larger economies in East and Southeast Asia. Inflation remains benign in the region, but pressure is building slightly as food prices rise. Inflation across developing Asia is forecast at 2.7% this year and next, or 0.2 percentage points up from April forecasts.

After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and financial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, efficient financial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work.

The annual Asian Development Outlook, now in its 30th year, analyzes economic performance in the past year and forecasts performance in the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Growth prospects in developing Asia remain strong despite persistent external headwinds responsible for moderating expansion since 2017. Global trade and economic activity weakened toward the end of 2018, slowing growth in many economies in the region. The outlook is cloudy with risks that tilt to the downside. A drawn-out trade conflict could undermine trade and investment in the region, and US fiscal policy and the consequences of a disorderly Brexit could weigh on growth in the advanced economies and the People's Republic of China. Though the risk of sharp increases in US interest rates has subsided, policy makers must stay vigilant. Disasters are shaped by natural hazards and the dynamics of the economy, society, and environment in which they occur. They pose a growing threat to development and prosperity in the region, their consequences disproportionately severe in developing countries, especially for the poor and marginalized. As developing Asia is home to more than four-fifths of the people affected by disasters globally in the past 2 decades, the region must strengthen its disaster resilience. This means integrating disaster risk reduction into national development and investment plans, spending more on prevention for a better balance with spending on rescue and recovery, and pooling risk through insurance and reinsurance.

Growth prospects in developing Asia are on the rise, buoyed by a rebound in global trade as solid recovery takes hold in the major industrial economies, and by strong investment demand. Also lifting regional prospects is growth in the People's Republic of China that exceeds expectations. Consumer prices are contained, and external balances under control, as global food and oil prices recover modestly. Risks to the outlook have become more balanced since April forecasts in this series. The advanced economies have so far avoided sharp, unexpected changes to their macroeconomic policies. Further, the fuel price rise is providing fiscal relief to oil exporters but is measured enough not to destabilize oil importers. To meet the region's infrastructure needs, developing Asia must mobilize $1.7 trillion annually. However, even factoring in funds saved through public finance reform or received from multilateral agencies, a significant financing gap remains. This Update highlights how public-private partnership can help fill the financing gap and improve infrastructure delivery by allocating risk to the party best able to manage it. Public-private partnership effectively marshals the private sector’s most valued strengths to meet public sector objectives. Where appropriately implemented, this innovative tool can yield superior development results.

The 2021 edition of the Outlook addresses reallocation of resources to digitalisation in response to COVID-19, with special focuses on health, education and Industry 4.0. During the COVID-19 crisis, digitalisation has proved critical to ensuring the continuity of essential services.

Infrastructure is essential for development. This report presents a snapshot of the current condition of developing Asia's infrastructure---defined here as transport, power, telecommunications, and water supply and sanitation. It examines how much the region has been investing in infrastructure and what will likely be needed through 2030. Finally, it analyzes the financial and institutional challenges that will shape future infrastructure investment and development.