Assessing Ballistic Missile Proliferation And Its Control

The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles is now one of the greatest threats to the United States and its allies. Efforts to contain WMD proliferation, particularly the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), have had limited success and must be improved to deal with new arms proliferation challenges. This thesis examines the case of Iraq to assess the performance of the missile nonproliferation regime since 1970. By analyzing the methods used by Iraq to obtain missile systems and missile technology, this thesis assesses the ability of the international community to prevent ballistic missile proliferation. Understanding Iraq's past capabilities as well as its post-war efforts to rebuild weapons programs and procurement networks, this thesis provides suggestions for improving the regime's performance. This thesis finds that (1) prior to 1992 the MTCR failed in its attempts to prevent proliferation; (2) the existence of the MTCR, while necessary to slow proliferation, is not sufficient to prevent proliferation; and (3) additional enforcement is needed to counter WMD acquisition by resourceful and determined states.

"This book offers an exploration of ballistic missile proliferation in the Middle East, and also delves into the geopolitical landscape to unveil a narrative of contemporary Middle Eastern history. The central focus of the book is to decipher the pivotal moments when three regional powers of the Middle East -- Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran -- embraced ballistic capabilities as a strategic response to military vulnerabilities. The authors contend that the very essence of ballistic proliferation incorporates a tactical rationale provided by military needs that varies from one state to another, and it is upon the assessment of these military needs that the decision to procure ballistic missiles is made. Offering a blend of theoretical insights and primary sources-based case studies, the book dissects the decision-making processes that spurred these states to choose ballistic missiles, despite their inefficiencies in delivering conventional payloads. The absence of an effective air force emerges as a catalyst, triggering what the authors terms a 'moment of ballistic consciousness'. Spanning three diverse regimes, the work provides a rich historical tapestry and untangles the complexities of political decisions with military implications, providing a fresh perspective on global power dynamics. This narrative sheds light on the intersection of military strategy, geopolitical realities, and the pursuit of ballistic capabilities that shapes the world's security landscape. This book will be of much interest to students of arms control, nuclear proliferation, Middle Eastern politics and International Relations"--

This is a collection of papers delivered at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop of the same name, which examined the role of independent scientists inassessing WMD threat. Such threat assessment has a profound impact on the policies of governments and international organizations. With papers coveringtopics ranging from policy making to chemical and biological weapons, nuclear threats and breaking the threat or counter threat cycle, this book illuminates an area of vital importance to the security and stability of relations between states, and the maintenance of internationally agreed norms.