Assessing House Prices In Canada

This paper assesses house prices in 11 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) using the borrowing-capacity and the net-present-value approaches. The results indicate that by the end of 2018, house prices in most metropolitan areas are aligned with macroeconomic fundamentals. However, in Hamilton, Toronto, and Vancouver house prices have increased beyond the values implied by the fundamentals.

Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, following recent declines, home prices are now generally close to equilibrium throughout Canada. However, house prices in Alberta and British Columbia remain around 8 percent overvalued at the end of the sample (second quarter of 2009). Despite the limitations of econometric estimates of house-price dynamics, the measured small degree of overvaluation suggests that the Canadian housing market is essentially at equilibrium.

With the aging of the baby-boom generation, the number of young households is falling in Canada. This study examines the contentions of the demographer David Foot, and of earlier work by Mankiw and Weil, that in such a population, the number of home buyers is bound to decrease, causing the prices of residential real estate to drop substantially. In addition to reviewing the relevant economic literature, it constructs econometric models using Canadian national and provincial data and uses them to assess whether expected demographic changes in Canada are likely to trigger a pronounced downward trend in residential real estate prices. The study concludes that even if it is true that demographics may exert downward pressure on real estate prices, such impact will probably be dominant only in certain regions, depending even there on their rates of growth in real income. In other regions, the real price should have a tendancy to rise.

Housing finance is broadly resilient, but pockets of vulnerabilities exist. Mortgage finance is dominated by domestic systemically important financial institutions (D-SIFIs) and supported by the government via mortgage insurance, securitization guarantees, and other policies. With a market share of about 70 percent, D-SIFIs focus on prime borrowers, and their lending is backed by their strong balance sheets. The smaller (uninsured) non-prime lending segment is largely served by smaller banks and prudentially unregulated lenders, which are comparatively less resilient. Some of these lenders rely on less stable, higher-cost funding such as brokered deposits or redeemable equity, and their lending is concentrated in regions with large housing market imbalances. Market concerns about the business model of non-prime lending were manifested by the liquidity crisis at a mid-sized deposit-taking institution in 2017.

This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.

Growth has slowed to a more sustainable level and financial vulnerabilities have eased. But risks remain. Household debt is high, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) awaits legislative approval, and ongoing trade tensions between the United States (U.S.) and its major trading partners are weighing on the global outlook.

Buying and selling a home are the biggest financial transactions most people will ever tackle. Well, help has arrived. This revised edition of Buying and Selling a Home For Canadians For Dummies prepares you to get what you need and want when buying a new home or selling the one you're in. Everything from arranging your finances and hiring an agent, to inspecting prospective homes and assessing home values, to making or fielding offers is presented in a clear and humorous way to help you get the most out of the process.