Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy

Nuclear materials have never been more plentiful or more accessible to rogue states and terrorists. In this study, the authors analyze the consequences of such nuclear leakage for United States national security and argue that it is possibly the nation's h

Nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons delivered covertly by terrorists or hostile governments pose a significant and growing threat to the United States and other countries. Although the threat of NBC attack is widely recognized as a central national security issue, most analysts have assumed that the primary danger is military use by states in war, with traditional military means of delivery. The threat of covert attack has been imprudently neglected.Covert attack is hard to deter or prevent, and NBC weapons suitable for covert attack are available to a growing range of states and groups hostile to the United States. At the same time, constraints on their use appear to be eroding. This volume analyzes the nature and limits of the covert NBC threat and proposes a measured set of policy responses, focused on improving intelligence and consequence-management capabilities to reduce U.S. vulnerability.About the authors: Richard A. Falkenrath is Assistant Professor of Public Policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He served as Executive Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) and, before that, as a Research Fellow. He is the author and co-author of Shaping Europe's Military Order (1995), Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy (1996), America's Achilles' Heel:Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack (1998), and numerous journal articles and chapters of edited volumes. Falkenrath has been a Visiting Research Fellow at the German Society of Foreign Affairs (DGAP) in Bonn. He holds a PhD from the Department of War Studies, King's College, London, where he was a British Marshall Scholar, and is a summa cum laude graduate of Occidental College, Los Angeles, with degrees in economics and international relations. He is on leave in 2001-2002 and is currently serving as Director for Counterproliferation and Homeland Defense at the National Security Council.Bradley A. Thayer is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota, Duluth.

The first in-depth examination of NEST: America's super-secret government agency operating to prevent nuclear terrorist attacks. Jeffrey T. Richelson reveals the history of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team, from the events leading to its creation in 1974 to today. Defusing Armageddon provides a behind-the-scenes look at NEST's personnel, operations, and detection and disablement equipment--employed in response to attempts at nuclear extortion, lost and stolen nuclear material, crashed nuclear-powered Soviet satellites, and al Qaeda's quest for nuclear weapons. Richelson traces the Cosmos satellite that crashed into the Canadian wilderness; nuclear threats to Los Angeles, New York, and other cities; and the surveillance of Muslim sites in the United States after 9/11. Relying on recently declassified documents and interviews with former NEST personnel, Richelson's extensive research reveals how NEST operated during the Cold War, how the agency has evolved, and its current efforts to reduce the chance of a nuclear device decimating an American city.

Smuggling Armageddon looks at one of the most troubling international concerns of the 1990s and beyond: the illegal trade in nuclear materials that has erupted in the Newly-Independent States (NIS) and Europe since the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Rensselaer Lee raises the seldom-asked question of whether such traffic poses a threat of consequence to international security and stability while showing readers a Russia beset with a variety of criminal proliferation channels, increasingly sophisticated smuggling operations, and nuclear stockpiles with breached security. Smuggling Armageddon is sure to provoke controversy and raise the specter of nuclear destruction once again.

The Oxford Handbook of Nuclear Security provides a comprehensive examination of efforts to secure sensitive nuclear assets and mitigate the risk of nuclear terrorism and other non-state actor threats. It aims to provide the reader with a holistic understanding of nuclear security through exploring its legal, political, and technical dimensions at the international, national, and organizational levels. Recognizing there is no one-size-fits-all approach to nuclear security, the book explores fundamental elements and concepts in practice through a number of case studies which showcase how and why national and organizational approaches have diverged. Although focused on critiquing past and current activities, unexplored yet crucial aspects of nuclear security are also considered, and how gaps in international efforts might be filled. Contributors to the handbook are drawn from a variety of different disciplinary backgrounds and experiences, to provide a wide range of perspectives on nuclear security issues and move beyond the Western narratives that have tended to dominate the debate.These include scholars from both developed and developing nuclear countries, as well as practitioners working in the field of nuclear security in an effort to bridge the gap between theory and practice.

In his shocking and revelatory new work, the celebrated journalist William Langewiesche investigates the burgeoning global threat of nuclear weapons production. The Atomic Bazaar is the story of the inexorable drift of nuclear weapons technology from the hands of the rich into the hands of the poor. As more unstable and undeveloped nations find ways of acquiring the ultimate arms, the stakes of state-sponsored nuclear activity have soared to frightening heights. Even more disturbing is the likelihood of such weapons being manufactured and deployed by guerrilla non-state terrorists. Langewiesche also recounts the recent history of Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist at the forefront of nuclear development and trade in the Middle East who masterminded the theft and sale of centrifuge designs that helped to build Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, and who single-handedly peddled nuclear plans to North Korea, Iran, and other potentially hostile countries. He then examines in dramatic and tangible detail the chances for nuclear terrorism. From Hiroshima to the present day, Langewiesche describes a reality of urgent consequence to us all. This searing, provocative, and timely report is a triumph of investigative journalism, and a masterful laying out of the most critical political problem the world now faces.

A leading strategist opens our eyes to the greatest terrorist threat of all-and how to prevent it before it's too late Americans in the twenty-first century are keenly aware of the many forms of terrorism: hijackings, biological attacks, chemical weapons. But rarely do we allow ourselves to face squarely the deadliest form of terrorism, because it is almost too scary to think about-a terrorist group exploding a nuclear device in an American city. In this urgent call to action, Graham Allison, one of America's leading experts on nuclear weapons and national security, presents the evidence for two provocative, compelling conclusions. First, if policy makers in Washington keep doing what they are currently doing about the threat, a nuclear terrorist attack on America is likely to occur in the next decade. And if one lengthens the time frame, a nuclear strike is inevitable. Second, the surprising and largely unrecognized good news is that nuclear terrorism is, in fact, preventable. In these pages, Allison offers an ambitious but feasible blueprint for eliminating the possibility of nuclear terrorist attacks. The United States once relied on the threat of mutually assured destruction to deter the Soviet Union from launching a nuclear strike. But in today's fragmented world, a new strategy is needed, especially with nuclear material vulnerable to theft or sale through black-market channels. The choice is ours: to grab this beast by the horns or to be impaled on those horns. We do not have the luxury of hoping the problem will go away, and Allison shows why.