Banking Structures And Sources Of Finance In The Middle East

This paper documents the main themes covered in two seminars (December 2011 and September 2012) on monetary policy and implementation at the IMF—Middle East Center for Economics and Finance, and includes country case studies. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and swings in cross-border capital flows, operational frameworks have become more flexible, and liquidity management has impacted the relationship between the policy rate corridor and market rates. The balance sheet structure of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows differences between oil exporters and others, while a few countries have exhibited notable changes since early 2011. Collateral now has a significant financial stability function. Although only one MENA country is part of the G20, implementation of the Basel III bank capital adequacy and liquidity rules will most likely impact banks’ way of doing business in MENA countries, even if indirectly.

The book aims to unravel the potentials of Middle East financial markets, which are spread over a large and wealthy part of the world. These markets are gradually being opened for international investors seeking diversification and rewarding risk adjusted returns. However, opening up to international investors is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to attract institutional money needed to provide depth and professionalism to these markets. Without a cultural shift towards more transparency, better regulations and governance, and the availability of custody, clearance and equity research, up to international best practice, not much institutional money will be forthcoming to the region. Funding sources in the Middle East and North Africa Region are still predominantly channeled through the banking system, with equity and fixed income markets playing a marginal role. While the world’s financial markets show on average a balanced structure of bank assets, stock market capitalization and debt securities, the capital mix in the region is heavily skewed towards bank assets with a share of 58.8%, equities around 34% and debt securities (bonds and Sukuk) 7.2%. Stock markets of the UAE and Qatar have recently been upgraded to emerging market status, which together with Egypt are the only three Arab countries that have selected listed companies featuring in the Morgan Stanley Capital Index for Emerging Markets (MSCI EM). Saudi Arabia has opened its stock market to direct investment by foreign financial institutions in the second half of 2015. The opening of the Saudi stock market is a major positive development for the region’s capital markets. The path ahead for MENA finance has become now clearer. The relative weight of commercial banks in the financial system will diminish gradually, and a wider range of financial services will be provided by deeper and increasingly more sophisticated debt and equity capital markets, in line with worldwide trends. Sharia compliant products, such as Sukuk, are expected to continue to grow at double-digit rate to meet the strong demand generated regionally and internationally.

We investigate whether low loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios and high levels of reserve balances at the central bank (or holdings of government securities) are a reflection of policy-driven factors compared to commonly cited reasons of reluctance to lend or sometimes weak investment demand in uncertain environments. We examine changes to central bank (CB) balance sheet structures as well as commercial banks’ flow of funds over the period 2007–2012. First, Middle East and North Africa (MENA) CBs play an active role in view of their size that is very large with respect to their economies compared to CBs in advanced economies. Second, under exchange rate targeting, most MENA CB balance sheets are asset-driven, holding foreign exchange (FX) reserves to support the exchange rate policy and resulting in lower loan-to-deposit (LTD) ratios in the case of unsterilized increases in FX. Third, CB policy decisions seem to be accompanied by an increase in commercial bank reserve money balances, with ensuing reduction in the LTD. Finally, if governments meet their financing needs from the banking system—whether from commercial banks or by monetary financing—commercial bank balance sheets will tend to expand, resulting in lower LTD ratios. Our analysis suggests that government and CB actions may also drive the demand for and supply of credit, which are traditionally attributed to the behavior of banks and non-financial corporates and households only. The findings offer a different interpretation of changes in CB and banks’ balance sheets, with direct implications for LTD, calling to exercise caution in recommending policy action which aim at propping up LTD to ‘appropriate’ levels in an effort to reinvigorate credit following a downturn.

The importance of financial inclusion is increasingly recognized by policymakers around the world. Small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) financial inclusion, in particular, is at the core of the economic diversification and growth challenges many countries are facing. In the Middle East and Central Asia (MENAP and CCA) regions, SMEs represent an important share of firms, but the regions lag most others in terms of SME access to financing.

The countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have been recovering from the global financial crisis, but the recent political turmoil has interrupted the pace of credit and output recovery in many countries. The political turmoil in the MENA region reveals deep-seated frustrations and a sense of political, social, and economic exclusion, especially among the youth. The relatively weak growth performance reflects a combination of insufficient reforms and weak reform implementation, including financial sector reforms. The structural weaknesses of financial sectors imply that access to finance may remain restricted even with a full recovery of credit activity. Therefore, the region s countries face an ambitious reform agenda to revert two decades of relatively poor performance of output and employment growth. Financial development should be a central component of the region s growth agenda. This study reviews the region s financial systems, the severity of the limitations on access to finance, and the main factors behind such limitations. It goes on to provide a road map for expanding access and preserving financial stability.