Basic Stochastic Processes

Stochastic processes are tools used widely by statisticians and researchers working in the mathematics of finance. This book for self-study provides a detailed treatment of conditional expectation and probability, a topic that in principle belongs to probability theory, but is essential as a tool for stochastic processes. The book centers on exercises as the main means of explanation.

Stochastic processes are mathematical models of random phenomena that evolve according to prescribed dynamics. Processes commonly used in applications are Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, renewal and regenerative processes, Poisson processes, and Brownian motion. This volume gives an in-depth description of the structure and basic properties of these stochastic processes. A main focus is on equilibrium distributions, strong laws of large numbers, and ordinary and functional central limit theorems for cost and performance parameters. Although these results differ for various processes, they have a common trait of being limit theorems for processes with regenerative increments. Extensive examples and exercises show how to formulate stochastic models of systems as functions of a system’s data and dynamics, and how to represent and analyze cost and performance measures. Topics include stochastic networks, spatial and space-time Poisson processes, queueing, reversible processes, simulation, Brownian approximations, and varied Markovian models. The technical level of the volume is between that of introductory texts that focus on highlights of applied stochastic processes, and advanced texts that focus on theoretical aspects of processes.

This book presents basic stochastic processes, stochastic calculus including Lévy processes on one hand, and Markov and Semi Markov models on the other. From the financial point of view, essential concepts such as the Black and Scholes model, VaR indicators, actuarial evaluation, market values, fair pricing play a central role and will be presented. The authors also present basic concepts so that this series is relatively self-contained for the main audience formed by actuaries and particularly with ERM (enterprise risk management) certificates, insurance risk managers, students in Master in mathematics or economics and people involved in Solvency II for insurance companies and in Basel II and III for banks.

Most introductory textbooks on stochastic processes which cover standard topics such as Poisson process, Brownian motion, renewal theory and random walks deal inadequately with their applications. Written in a simple and accessible manner, this book addresses that inadequacy and provides guidelines and tools to study the applications. The coverage includes research developments in Markov property, martingales, regenerative phenomena and Tauberian theorems, and covers measure theory at an elementary level.

Stochastic processes are necessary ingredients for building models of a wide variety of phenomena exhibiting time varying randomness. This text offers easy access to this fundamental topic for many students of applied sciences at many levels. It includes examples, exercises, applications, and computational procedures. It is uniquely useful for beginners and non-beginners in the field. No knowledge of measure theory is presumed.

This textbook introduces the theory of stochastic processes, that is, randomness which proceeds in time. Using concrete examples like repeated gambling and jumping frogs, it presents fundamental mathematical results through simple, clear, logical theorems and examples. It covers in detail such essential material as Markov chain recurrence criteria, the Markov chain convergence theorem, and optional stopping theorems for martingales. The final chapter provides a brief introduction to Brownian motion, Markov processes in continuous time and space, Poisson processes, and renewal theory.Interspersed throughout are applications to such topics as gambler's ruin probabilities, random walks on graphs, sequence waiting times, branching processes, stock option pricing, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms.The focus is always on making the theory as well-motivated and accessible as possible, to allow students and readers to learn this fascinating subject as easily and painlessly as possible.

Based on a well-established and popular course taught by the authors over many years, Stochastic Processes: An Introduction, Third Edition, discusses the modelling and analysis of random experiments, where processes evolve over time. The text begins with a review of relevant fundamental probability. It then covers gambling problems, random walks, and Markov chains. The authors go on to discuss random processes continuous in time, including Poisson, birth and death processes, and general population models, and present an extended discussion on the analysis of associated stationary processes in queues. The book also explores reliability and other random processes, such as branching, martingales, and simple epidemics. A new chapter describing Brownian motion, where the outcomes are continuously observed over continuous time, is included. Further applications, worked examples and problems, and biographical details have been added to this edition. Much of the text has been reworked. The appendix contains key results in probability for reference. This concise, updated book makes the material accessible, highlighting simple applications and examples. A solutions manual with fully worked answers of all end-of-chapter problems, and Mathematica® and R programs illustrating many processes discussed in the book, can be downloaded from crcpress.com.

This textbook explores probability and stochastic processes at a level that does not require any prior knowledge except basic calculus. It presents the fundamental concepts in a step-by-step manner, and offers remarks and warnings for deeper insights. The chapters include basic examples, which are revisited as the new concepts are introduced. To aid learning, figures and diagrams are used to help readers grasp the concepts, and the solutions to the exercises and problems. Further, a table format is also used where relevant for better comparison of the ideas and formulae. The first part of the book introduces readers to the essentials of probability, including combinatorial analysis, conditional probability, and discrete and continuous random variable. The second part then covers fundamental stochastic processes, including point, counting, renewal and regenerative processes, the Poisson process, Markov chains, queuing models and reliability theory. Primarily intended for undergraduate engineering students, it is also useful for graduate-level students wanting to refresh their knowledge of the basics of probability and stochastic processes.