Behavioral Simulation Methods In Tax Policy Analysis

These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.

Tax policy questions may relate to specific problems, concerning perhaps the revenue implications of a particular tax or they may involve an extensive analysis of the cost andredistributive effects of many taxes and transfer payments. This book is concerned with the ways in which tax policy design can be enhanced by the use of a behavioural taxmicrosimulation model capable of evaluating the effects of planned or actual tax reforms. An advantage of such a large-scale tax simulation model, which reflects the heterogeneity of the population and captures the details of the tax structure, is that it can examine detailed practical policy questions and can provide direct inputs into policy debates. After introducing behavioural models, the authors discuss the role of means testing, several hypothetical policy reforms, actual and proposed reforms and recent modellingdevelopments. Tax Policy Design and Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling will be of interest to academics and researchers of economics, econometrics and public finance. It will also be useful reading for policymakers responsible for the formulation of taxation.

This book reports the authors' research on one of the most sophisticated general equilibrium models designed for tax policy analysis. Significantly disaggregated and incorporating the complete array of federal, state, and local taxes, the model represents the U.S. economy and tax system in a large computer package. The authors consider modifications of the tax system, including those being raised in current policy debates, such as consumption-based taxes and integration of the corporate and personal income tax systems. A counterfactual economy associated with each of these alternatives is generated, and the possible outcomes are compared.

The international cast of authors in this important book explore how internationalizing small and medium sized enterprises (iSMEs) face major crises, such as COVID-19, and have managed them to reach a stable and desired state post-crisis. Chapter orientations vary from theoretical to empirical. Each focuses on issues related to a major crisis, and present already-deployed success strategies in 14 different country environments. The rich diversity of chapters offers a highly significant and timely contribution to the field.

The United States is distinctive among Western countries in its reliance on nonprofit institutions to perform major social functions. This reliance is rooted in American history and is fostered by federal tax provisions for charitable giving. In this study, Charles T. Clotfelter demonstrates that changes in tax policy—effected through legislation or inflation—can have a significant impact on the level and composition of giving. Clotfelter focuses on empirical analysis of the effects of tax policy on charitable giving in four major areas: individual contributions, volunteering, corporate giving, and charitable bequests. For each area, discussions of economic theory and relevant tax law precede a review of the data and methodology used in econometric studies of charitable giving. In addition, new econometric analyses are presented, as well as empirical data on the effect of taxes on foundations. While taxes are not the most important determinant of contributions, the results of the analyses presented here suggest that charitable deductions, as well as tax rates and other aspects of the tax system, are significant factors in determining the size and distribution of charitable giving. This work is a model for policy-oriented research efforts, but it also supplies a major (and very timely) addition to the evidence that must inform future proposals for tax reform.

A tax reform policy aiming at a growth of prosperity requires basic guidelines. These would have to serve as a standard evaluation model for the precise assessment of the current tax system and the development of tax reform proposals. For market economies the concept of a consumption-based tax system is gaining increasing importance, especially with respect to economic efficiency. An ideal concept for reforming direct taxes would be the requirement of aligning tax bases directly to consumed income, that is, to exempt saved and invested income from taxation. The present volume contains papers dealing with the pros and cons of such a consumption-based tax system and of taxing lifetime consumption. Papers presented in this volume come from leading international scientists who discuss the tax reform under theoretical, political, legal and administrative aspects.

Hans-Werner Sinn, Munich, West Germany This book contains 15 papers presented at a conference in Neresheim, West Ger many, in June 1986. The articles were selected by anonymous referees and most of them have undergone substantial revisions since their presentation. The common topic is measurement of welfare, both from efficiency and from equity perspectives. For many economists, welfare is a diffuse, arbitrary and am biguous concept. The papers collected in this book show that this view is not justified. Though not beyond all doubt, welfare theory today is crisp and clear, offering fairly straightforward measuring concepts. It even comes up with numbers that measure society's advantage or disadvantage from specific policy options in monetary units. Politicians get something they can intuitively understand and argue with, and they do not have to be afraid that all this is metaphysics or the result of the scientist's personal value judgements. Some economists, whom I would classify as belonging to the "everything is optimal" school, would claim that providing politicians with numerical welfare measures is superfluous or even dangerous. The world is as it is, and any attempt to give policy advice can only make things worse. I do not share this view. There are good policies and there are bad ones, but it may not be easy to distinguish between them. There is a role for consulting politicians, Dr.