Better Traffic And Revenue Forecasting

Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.

Toll roads, bridges and tunnels represent the most popular class of infrastructure attracting international private finance today. Many deals, however, expose financiers, insurers and other project counterparties to demand risk. This moves traffic and revenue forecasts centre-stage in terms of being able to understand and test the investment proposition - yet the forecasting process itself often remains a mystery. Additionally, there are frequent concerns about predictive reliability. Written specifically for credit analysts, investors and other professionals whose primary expertise lies outside transportation, this book lifts the lid on the 'black box' of traffic and revenue forecasting. The author, Robert Bain (ex-S&P and a civil engineer with 20+ years of forecasting experience) has prepared a straightforward guide which highlights key issues to watch for and suggests ways in which the forecasts can be analysed to improve transparency and investor understanding.

MODELLING TRANSPORT Comprehensive Textbook Resource for Understanding Transport Modelling Modelling Transport provides unrivalled depth and breadth of coverage on the topic of transport modelling. Each topic is approached as a modelling exercise with discussion of the roles of theory, data, model specification, estimation, validation, and application. The authors present the state of the art and its practical application in a pedagogic manner, easily understandable to both students and practitioners. An accompanying website hosts a solutions manual. Sample topics and learning resources included in the work are as follows: State-of-the-art developments in the field of transport modelling, including new research and examples Factors to consider for better modelling and forecasting Information and analysis on dynamic assignment and micro-simulation and model design and specification Agent and Activity Based Modelling Modelling new modes and services Graduate students in transportation engineering and planning, transport economics, urban studies, and geography programs along with researchers and practitioners in the transportation and urban planning industry can use Modelling Transport as a comprehensive reference work for a wide array of topics pertaining to this field.

Transport and the spatial location of population and activities have been important themes of study in engineering, social sciences and urban and regional planning for many decades. However, an integrated approach to the modelling of transport and land use has been rarely made, and common practice has been to model both phenomena independently. This book presents an introduction to the modelling of land use and transport interaction (LUTI), with a theoretical basis and a presentation of the broad state of the art. It also sets out the steps for building an operational LUTI model to provide a concrete application. The authors bring extensive experience in this cross-disciplinary field, primarily for an academic audience and for professionals seeking a thorough introduction.

Conference participants sought to identify gaps in the data and analytic tools needed to support economic analysis as related to transportation investment and to develop research proposals designed to fill those gaps. The opening day of the conference featured presentations by economists, transportation analysts, and policy makers on the theory and practice of economic analysis and its usefulness to decision makers. The second and third days of the conference revolved around participatory workshops. Six separate working groups deliberated over three questions: (1) What is the appropriate level of investment in transportation to encourage economic health? (2) How should projects be prioritized within a multimodal transportation program? (3) How much revenue is likely to flow from user charges, tolls, and other sources? At the conclusion of its deliberations, each working group developed a list of research proposals, which it then presented to the conference as a whole.

Environmental and social impact assessment (ESIA) is an important and often obligatory part of proposing or launching any development project. Delivering a successful ESIA needs not only an understanding of the theory but also a detailed knowledge of the methods for carrying out the processes required. Riki Therivel and Graham Wood bring together the latest advice on best practice from experienced practitioners to ensure an ESIA is carried out effectively and efficiently. This new edition: • explains how an ESIA works and how it should be carried out • demonstrates the links between socio-economic, cultural, environmental and ecological systems and assessments • incorporates the World Bank’s IFC performance standards, and best practice examples from developing as well as developed countries • includes new chapters on emerging ESIA topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, cultural impacts, resource efficiency, land acquisition and involuntary resettlement. Invaluable to undergraduate and MSc students of ESIA on planning, ecology, geography and environment courses, this internationally oriented fourth edition of Methods of Environmental and Social Impact Assessment is also of great use to planners, ESIA practitioners and professionals seeking to update their skills.