Betting On Theories

This book is a major new contribution to decision theory, focusing on the question of when it is rational to accept scientific theories. The author examines both Bayesian decision theory and confirmation theory, refining and elaborating the views of Ramsey and Savage. He argues that the most solid foundation for confirmation theory is to be found in decision theory, and he provides a decision-theoretic derivation of principles for how many probabilities should be revised over time. Professor Maher defines a notion of accepting a hypothesis, and then shows that it is not reducible to probability and that it is needed to deal with some important questions in the philosophy of science. A Bayesian decision-theoretic account of rational acceptance is provided together with a proof of the foundations for this theory. A final chapter shows how this account can be used to cast light on such vexing issues as verisimilitude and scientific realism.

In this book, Reuven Brenner argues that people bet on new ideas and are more willing to take risks when they have been outdone by their fellows on local, national, or international scales. Such bets mean that people deviate from the beaten path and either gamble, commit crimes, or come up with new ideas in art, business, or politics, and ideas concerning war and peace in particular. By using evidence on gambling, crime, and creativity now and during the Industrial Revolution, by examining innovations in English and French inheritance laws and the emergence of welfare legislation, and by looking at what has happened before and after wars, Brenner reaches the conclusion that hope and fear, envy and vanity, sentiments provoked when being leapfrogged, make humans race.

How do sportsbooks make their lines? Which types of bets are the best? Can you beat the house? The Logic Of Sports Betting answers all these questions and more with a dash of humor and a whole lot of real talk about how it all works. Peek behind the counter and learn how sportsbooks operate. Combine that insider knowledge with why-didn't-I-think-of-that sports betting logic, and you have the winning formula. Ed Miller is a best-selling (over 300,000 copies sold) author of books on poker and gambling. This is his first book on sports betting, but maybe his favorite book to write so far. Matthew Davidow is a sports modeler, using proprietary methods to beat major sports betting markets for over 15 years, and co-founding two leading private sports analytics firms along the way. What people are saying about The Logic Of Sports Betting "Matt and Ed are two of the smartest minds in sports betting." - Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor "As a sportsbook employee for 30-plus years, I find it difficult to read or watch anything about sports betting. But I could not put The Logic Of Sports Betting down. It's that good." - Robert Walker, Las Vegas bookmaker

Covering all aspects of gambling, The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic is mathematically sophisticated, but can be read for what it says about the games and strategies, skipping the technicalities. The material is fascinating and detailed, and the analysis is masterful.

"An elegant and amusing account" of how gambling has been reshaped by the application of science and revealed the truth behind a lucky bet (Wall Street Journal). For the past 500 years, gamblers-led by mathematicians and scientists-have been trying to figure out how to pull the rug out from under Lady Luck. In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.

In 1956, two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the problem of making as much money as possible, as fast as possible. Shannon and MIT mathematician Edward O. Thorp took the "Kelly formula" to Las Vegas. It worked. They realized that there was even more money to be made in the stock market. Thorp used the Kelly system with his phenomenally successful hedge fund, Princeton-Newport Partners. Shannon became a successful investor, too, topping even Warren Buffett's rate of return. Fortune's Formula traces how the Kelly formula sparked controversy even as it made fortunes at racetracks, casinos, and trading desks. It reveals the dark side of this alluring scheme, which is founded on exploiting an insider's edge. Shannon believed it was possible for a smart investor to beat the market—and William Poundstone's Fortune's Formula will convince you that he was right.

table { }.font5 { color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Tahoma,sans-serif; }.font6 { color: black; font-size: 8pt; font-weight: 700; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Tahoma,sans-serif; }td { padding: 0px; color: windowtext; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }.xl66 { font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; } It's time to win now! You'll learn how to separate the truths from the myths of sports betting and make money in the real world with practical strategies. The major betting sports are covered with a special emphasis on football, basketball, baseball and hockey, along with concepts, tips, theories and techniques that apply to all sports. In addition to hard-hitting specific strategies for recognizing opportunities and finding value -- money line wagering, buying points, hedging bets, trends versus systems, incomplete rosters, over/under plays, prop bet opportunities, connected wagers, betting games (not spreads) and much more -- you'll learn the mental aspects necessary for winning: keeping records, money management, analyzing wagers, and how to think differently from the average losing gambler. Kochan includes over 50 real-world examples of great bets!

Moore draws on his extensive experience as a criminal trial attorney, handling countless gambling cases, to explain betting concepts in easy-to-grasp terms. He uses amusing and memorable anecdotes to reveal the ideas that most successful bookmakers already know.