Brent Crude Oil

In 2023, the Brent oil benchmark, a key international oil price marker for global crude oil underwent a substantial change. It incorporated another key benchmark, West Texas Intermediate oil from Midland, produced in the US and sold into European and Asian markets. Brent is used to set prices for over 70 per cent of global crude oil, so this fundamental change in the composition of the benchmarks is making some observers question its future development and even its survival. Lessons from the past are very important for the future, particularly in this case. This book revisits the history and genesis of the Brent oil benchmark and how it came to dominate the global oil market for oil. With chapters written by the individuals involved in trading and shaping the market, it brings the richness and texture to the usual historical narrative by recalling the events, companies and people who shaped its history. It introduces the historical background to the international oil markets and the reasons for a move from OPEC-set prices to oil benchmarks. It discusses the role of the North Sea in the international oil markets, as well as the role of the British government in the British national oil and gas monopoly (British National Oil Corporation or BNOC). The development of the North Sea oil, which coincided with the liberalisation policies in the UK and US, is also discussed, alongside the challenges of the oil exchange (International Petroleum Exchange) in London, the home of Brent and looks at the failures, attempted takeovers, and its eventual sale to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). It finally discusses the growing market ecosystem of the price reporting agencies (PRAs), which play a key role in establishing the value of the Brent benchmark.

The market for North Sea Brent Oil directly determines the price of over one-half of the world trade in crude oil. This study analyzes the workings of the oil market and describes how crude oil prices are determined throughout the world. It covers OPEC pricing, futures markets for oil, the impact of the UK taxation regime, and the mechanisms by which the world price of oil is determined. The text should be of benefit to those working in the areas of futures and forward markets, OPEC behaviour, North Sea oil, oil taxation and oil prices.

We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.

This paper examines the behavior of crude oil prices since 1980, and in particular the volatility of these prices. The empirical analysis covers “spot” prices for one of the key internationally traded crudes, namely Dated Brent Blend. A GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic) model, which allows the conditional variance to be time-variant, is estimated for the period which includes the oil price slump of 1986 and the surge in prices in 1990 as a result of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The paper also discusses the growth of futures and derivative markets and the dynamic links between spot and futures markets.

As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

The day-to-day world of crude oil traders is not usually open to outsiders. Few non-specialists appreciate how oil traders approach the markets, what their backgrounds are and how they make money. This book brings the oil trading world to vivid life by introducing the reader to 40 real-life trades or strategies that were carried out by named market participants. The 40 chapters cover different geographies and different crude oil markets, providing an unparalleled insight into how crude oil traders work and think. Oil trading developed in its current form in the 1980s and the chapters cover these early beginnings through to the present day. The trades have been grouped in sections that relate to the nature of each trade and its broader use as an example of a successful trading style. Sections cover approaches to arbitrage trading; the impact of geopolitics; logistics and storage plays; short-term versus longer term trading; managing new crude oil grades; trading crude oil derivatives. The book provides plenty of inspiration for current or prospective crude oil traders or analysts. It will also be valuable for academic researchers, business school case studies, and for anyone wanting to learn more about the individuals that shape the world’s most important commodity market.

It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.