Calculated Futures

Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.

Calculated Futures seeks a way forward by engaging economics as a social scientific discipline without subordinating theology to it.

Whether dealing in coffee, wheat, pork bellies, silver or gold, any buyer investing in commodities is trading in the futures market. For the investor, the goal is to make money when that commodity either gains or loses in value. Winning with Futures demystifies the market, with all of its risks and opportunities, and enables readers to make the most informed decisions when betting on the outcome of a product. With easy-to-follow, practical advice, Michael C. Thomsett teaches novice investors to select the best commodities—from energy and imports to financial futures; manage risks effectively while diversifying their portfolios; and avoid selling at the wrong time. Complete with a history of the futures market as well as an evaluation of the risks involved for all types of futures, this book will help every investor make far better predictions and much bigger profits.

This book addresses the rising productivity gap between the global frontier and other firms, and identifies a number of structural impediments constraining business start-ups, knowledge diffusion and resource allocation (such as barriers to up-scaling and relatively high rates of skill mismatch).

The global value of trading in index futures is about $20 trillion per year and rising and for many countries the value traded is similar to that traded on their stock markets. This book describes how index futures markets work and clearly summarises the substantial body of international empirical evidence relating to these markets. Using the concepts and tools of finance, the book also provides a comprehensive description of the economic forces that underlie trading in index futures. Stock Index Futures 3/e contains many teaching and learning aids including numerous examples, a glossary, essay questions, comprehensive references, and a detailed subject index. Written primarily for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students, this text will also be useful to researchers and market participants who want to gain a better understanding of these markets.

Commodity market legend William D.Gann's square of 9 theory is a successful one, for intraday trading. Use one time per day per scrip. You can get profit for 15 to 17 days out of 20 days. Simple mathematical calculations. No technical knowhow needed.

Consumers, investors, and corporations orient their activities toward a future that contains opportunities and risks. How do these actors assess uncertainty? Jens Beckert adds a new chapter to the theory of capitalism by showing how fictional expectations drive modern economies—or throw them into crisis when imagined futures fail to materialize.

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper proposes useful transformation/restrictions to Bahra’s original formulation for achieving economically sensible outcomes. In addition, the paper compares the statistical properties of the estimated RNPs among major asset classes, including commodities, the S&P 500, the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the US 10-year Treasury Note. Finally, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the multi-lognormal approach outperforms the double-lognormal approach.