Campaigning For President 2012

In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Coming out of one of the most contentious elections in history, Dennis Johnson and Lara Brown have assembled an outstanding team of authors to examine one of the fiercest and most closely fought presidential elections of our time. Like the 2008 and 2012 editions of Campaigning for President, the 2016 edition combines the talents and insights of political scientists who specialize in campaigns and elections together with seasoned political professionals who have been involved in previous presidential campaigns. Campaigning for President is the only series on presidential campaigns that features both political scientists and professional consultants. This book focuses on the most important questions of this most unusual presidential campaign. What was the appeal of Donald Trump? Has Twitter and social media become the dominant means of communicating? How did fake news, WikiLeaks, and the Russians factor in this election? What happened to the Obama coalition and why couldn’t Hillary Clinton capitalize on it? Hundreds of millions of Super PAC dollars were raised and spent, and much of that was wasted. What happened? Is the wild west of online media the new norm for presidential contests? These and many other questions are answered in the provocative essays by scholars and practitioners. The volume also is packed with valuable appendixes: a timeline of the presidential race, biographical sketches of each candidate, a roster of political consultants, the primary and general election results, exit polls, and campaign spending. New to the 2016 Edition The 2016 presidential contest brings a completely new set of players, policies, and electoral challenges. Like the 2008 and 2012 editions, the authors probe the strategies and tactics of the candidate campaigns and the outside organizations. The chapters focus on Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, but also look at the Bernie Sanders insurgency, the collapse of the mainstream Republican candidates, and the dynamics of the general election. Chapters also analyze the changes in campaign finance, new technologies, the role of social media, and how fake news and subterfuge might become the new realities of presidential campaigning.

In this important and timely volume, Dennis W. Johnson has assembled an outstanding team of political scientists and political professionals to examine one of the fiercest and most closely fought presidential elections of our time. Like its predecessor, Campaigning for President 2008, Campaigning for President 2012: Strategy and Tactics focuses on political management. It is written by both elections/campaign scholars and practitioners, who highlight the role of political consultants and campaigns while also emphasizing the strategy and tactics employed by the candidates, the national political parties, and outside interests. The contributors explore the general mood of the electorate in the 2012 election, the challenges Obama faced after his first term, the primaries, money, communication, the important issues of the election, and finally the election itself.

From the bestselling author of The Battle for America 2008 and longtime Washington Post correspondent, an inside view and analysis of the Obama-Romney presidential race In 2008 a bright young candidate triumphed on a theme of change and hope. Four years later an embattled President struggled against an apocalyptically divided and divisive Congress, a war that won’t end, and an economy that casts a dark penumbra over every spark of good news. His opponent, a well-heeled businessman who couldn't seem to stand on his own business record, withstood unexpected and extreme opposition to capture the nomination of a party whose main platform and principles with which he was historically and fundamentally at odds. The 2012 Election, once predicted to be a boring run at a popular President, took on a new urgency with the infamous 2010 midterm shellacking and equally infamous Citizen United ruling, and delivered drama and tension as the Republicans tried to reconcile the factions at war within their party and Democrats faced the tsunami of super Pac money flooding local and regional elections. As with his last book, The Battle for America 2008, Washington Post correspondent Dan Balz uses a combination of superb sources and long, deep reporting experience to take us both deep inside and far beyond Campaign HQs in Chicago and Boston. He tracks the nuances of Beltway politics and the thinking behind the scenes to show how Obama regained his footing, and to speculate about whether this election actually did anything to change the toxically poisonous atmosphere inside the Beltway, the increasing hostility and disenchantment with politicians outside, and the frightening effect of the torrent of money being poured out by special-interest groups beholden to no voter or law? Will there be anything in this election that will heal the political process in America? Special highlights include two much talked-about post-election interviews with Romney and Christie which have been making headlines, as well as a new afterword.

Do voters cast ballots for the candidates whose positions best match their own? Or does the race for president come down to who runs the most effective campaign? In their book, The Timeline of Presidential Elections, published in 2012, Erikson and Wlezien documented how both factors come into play. Having amassed data from national polls covering presidential elections from 1952 to 2008, they could track how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. But they wanted to know whether Barak Obama’s historic 2012 campaign would follow the same pattern. This e-book both presents the central arguments from Timeline and updates the statistical analysis to include data from 2012. The authors also use the 2012 presidential campaign as a test of the empirical patterns they found in the previous fifteen elections. They show that Obama’s campaign conforms to their projections, and they confirm that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of--or not made aware of--fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. The 2012 Campaign and the Timeline of Presidential Elections will be useful in courses on the election process.

In this book, a distinguished group of presidential campaign staff, journalists, and political observers take us inside the 2012 race for the Republican nomination and general election, guiding us through each candidate's campaign from the time each candidate announced his or her intention to seek the presidency through the primaries, conventions, and up to election day. Meeting under the auspices of the Harvard University's Institute of Politics, the candid discussion allows us to learn about the motivations of each candidate, strategies they deployed, and lessons they learned. In addition, representatives from the major SUPERPACS share their strategies and evaluate their impact in an election characterized by unprecedented campaign spending. Campaign for President: The Managers Look at 2012 is essential reading for anyone interested in the inner workings of national political campaigns.

A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney "Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest—and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election—with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. The Gamble combines this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, providing the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written—and the only book of its kind. In a new preface, the authors reflect on the place of The Gamble in the tradition of presidential election studies, its reception to date, and possible paths for future social science research.

In this first scholarly reflection on the 2012 elections, a distinguished cast of contributors enlightens students, scholars, and serious political readers about the issues involved in one of the most polarised presidential elections in history. The book includes groundbreaking research on e-politics and online fund-raising, the role of race, class, and gender, and the influence of the Tea Party, Occupy, the economic crisis, and other actors and factors in the election. Characterised by diversity, liveliness, and data-informed analysis, Winning the Presidency 2012 captures the highlights as well as looking ahead.