Capital Controls In Times Of Crisis Do They Work

This paper provides an analysis of the use and effects of capital controls in 27 AEs and EMDEs which experienced at least one financial crisis between 1995 and 2017. Countries often turn to using capital controls in crisis: some ease inflow controls while others tighten controls on outflows. A key finding is that countries with pervasive controls before the start of the crisis are shielded compared to countries with more open capital accounts, which see a significant decline in capital flows during crises. In contrast, the effectiveness of capital controls introduced during crises appears to be weak and difficult to identify. There is also some evidence that the introduction of outflow controls during crises is negatively associated with sovereign debt ratings, but that investors may actually forgive with time.

'Professor Athukorala tells a fascinating story of one of the most successful economies in the world economy in the last decades, from the inception of its liberalisation policy to its radical decision to pursue an independent recovery path after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This is case-study economics at its best. The book is superbly organised, meticulously researched and clearly written; a treat for professional economists and policymakers alike.' - Tony Thirlwall, University of Kent, UK 'Malaysia is one of the great success stories of the last quarter of the twentieth century. From 1988 it had one of the highest growth rates in the world, and it managed to maintain ethnic peace in an undoubtedly difficult environment. Recently it has provided a major laboratory experiment of the use of capital controls at a time of crisis when a country is highly integrated in the world capital market. This excellent book presents the first careful analysis of the nature and effects of these controls, as well as providing a thorough background of how the Asian crisis played out in Malaysia.' - W.Max Corden, The Johns Hopkins University, US In the light of the Malaysian experience during the Asian financial crisis, this book examines the role of international capital mobility in making countries susceptible to financial crises and the use of capital controls as a crisis management tool. Malaysia provides an interesting case study of this subject given its significant capital market liberalisation prior to the onset of the crisis, and its fundamental shift in crisis management policy in September 1998. The prime focus of the book is on Malaysia's radical policy decision to pursue an independent recovery path, cut off from world markets by a system of capital control, as a viable alternative to the conventional market centred approach. The analysis suggests that, against the initial dire predictions of many economists, the capital controls have actually played a crucial supportive role in crisis management. Whether the controls have played a special role in delivering a superior recovery outcome in Malaysia compared to IMF-program countries remains a point of contention. However, there is strong evidence to suggest that this pragmatic policy choice was instrumental in achieving recovery, while minimising potential economic disruption and related social costs.

Some scholars argue that the free movement of capital across borders enhances welfare; others claim it represents a clear peril, especially for emerging nations. In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies, an esteemed group of contributors examines both the advantages and the pitfalls of restricting capital mobility in these emerging nations. In the aftermath of the East Asian currency crises of 1997, the authors consider mechanisms that eight countries have used to control capital inflows and evaluate their effectiveness in altering the maturity of the resulting external debt and reducing macroeconomic vulnerability. This volume is essential reading for all those interested in emerging nations and the costs and benefits of restricting international capital flows.

Capital flight - the unrecorded export of capital from developing countries - often represents a significant cost for developing countries. It also poses a puzzle for standard economic theory, which would predict that poorer countries be importers of capital due to its scarcity. This situation is often reversed, however, with capital fleeing poorer countries for wealthier, capital-abundant locales. Using a common methodology for a set of case studies on the size, causes and consequences of capital flight in developing countries, the contributors address the extent of capital flight, its effects, and what can be done to reverse it. Case studies of Brazil, China, Chile, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey and the Middle East provide rich descriptions of the capital flight phenomena in a variety of contexts. The volume includes a detailed description of capital flight estimation methods, a chapter surveying the impact of financial liberalization, and several chapters on controls designed to solve the capital flight problem. The first book devoted to the careful calculation of capital flight and its historical and policy context, this volume will be of great interest to students and scholars in the areas of international finance and economic development.

Free capital movements played an important part in the economic integration and globalisation of the nineteenth century. This work analyses historical experience with capital controls, in Britain and elsewhere, and reviews the theory. It concludes that such controls are damaging and that there is no case for reviving them.

We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.

The currency crises that engulfed East Asian economies in 1997 and Mexico in 1994 - and their high development costs - raise a serious concern about the net benefits for developing countries of large flows of potentially reversible short-term international capital. Written by senior policy-makers and academics, the contributions to this volume examine in depth the macroeconomic and other policy dilemmas confronting public authorities in the emerging economies as they deal with short-term capital movements, especially in the period before the outbreak of these crises. The studies are based on comparative case studies of key emerging economies. Valuable insights are also derived from contrasts between the East Asian, Latin American, African, and European experiences, between the financial and real effects of financial flows, and between private and public responsibilities in managing financial markets. The great value of the chapters in this volume is that they analytically identify the weaknesses in both domestic and international capital market regimes. The recommendations derived from this analysis apply to the development of financial markets in developing countries, the monitoring and regulation of mutual funds in source countries, and the future development of international capital markets. They will make an important contribution both to the discussion of national policies and of a new international financial architechture.

Managing Capital Flows provides analyses that can help policymakers develop a framework for managing capital flows that is consistent with prudent macroeconomic and financial sector stability. While capital inflows can provide emerging market economies with invaluable benefits in pursuing economic development and growth, they can also pose serious policy challenges for macroeconomic management and financial sector supervision. The expert contributors cover a wide range of issues related to managing capital flows and analyze the experience of emerging Asian economies in dealing with surges in capital inflows. They also discuss possible policy measures to manage capital flows while remaining consistent with the goals of macroeconomic and financial sector stability. Building on this analysis, the book presents options for workable national policies and regional policy cooperation, particularly in exchange rate management. Containing chapters that bring in international experiences relevant to Asia and other emerging market economies, this insightful book will appeal to policymakers in governments and financial institutions, as well as public and private finance experts. It will also be of great interest to advanced students and academic researchers in finance.