Car Ownership Forecasting

Originally published in 1982, this book gives a concise commentary on the development and performance of car ownership prediction procedures and a wide-ranging survey of the modelling techniques associated with forecasting. The book provides a basic appreciation of the key points, whether they are mathematical or otherwise. Throughout the book there is a theme which relates the academic debate surrounding the issue to technical rather than philosophical concepts.

In this report, a review was presented of existing models for car ownership. This review contains a description and comparison of existing Dutch car ownership models and a review and comparison of recently developed models in the international literature and models used in practice. The provision of this review was one of the objectives of this project. The other objective was to recommend on directions for potential development for improving the AVV car ownership models. The car ownership model that AVV uses for most applications is the so-called FACTS model (Forecasting Air pollution through Car Traffic Simulation). FACTS also provides the future total number of cars that is used as an external total in the Dutch national Model System (LMS) for traffic and transport. The background of this audit is the desire of AVV to obtain information on the basis of which a well-founded decision can be made on the development of an improved car ownership model, that can produce robust and sensible car ownership forecasts for all kinds of variants of variabilisation of the road tax (MRB) and car purchase tax (BPM). As part of this project, a number of policy advisers was interviewed about what types of outputs are required from a car ownership model, what should be the forecasting horizon and what should be the policy variables to be simulated.

RAND Europe has carried out a research project on car ownership modeling, called ÂAudit of car ownership models, for the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. This report presents a review of existing models for car ownership. The review contains a description and comparison of existing Dutch car ownership models and a review and comparison of recently developed models in the international literature and models used in practice. The report also includes recommendations on directions for potential development for improving the AVV car ownership models. The background of this audit is the desire of AVV to obtain information on the basis of which a well-founded decision can be made on the development of an improved car ownership model that can produce robust and sensible car ownership forecasts for all kinds of variants of variabilisation of the road tax (MRB) and car purchase tax (BPM). As part of this project, a number of policy advisers were interviewed about what types of outputs are required from a car ownership model, what should be the forecasting horizon and what should be the policy variables to be simulated.

Originally published in 1982, this book gives a concise commentary on the development and performance of car ownership prediction procedures and a wide-ranging survey of the modelling techniques associated with forecasting. The book provides a basic appreciation of the key points, whether they are mathematical or otherwise. Throughout the book there is a theme which relates the academic debate surrounding the issue to technical rather than philosophical concepts.