Chance Calculation And Life

Chance, Calculation and Life brings together 16 original papers from the colloquium of the same name, organized by the International Cultural Center of Cerisy in 2019. From mathematics to the humanities and biology, there are many concepts and questions related to chance. What are the different types of chance? Does chance correspond to a lack of knowledge about the causes of events, or is there a truly intrinsic and irreducible chance? Does chance preside over our decisions? Does it govern evolution? Is it at the origin of life? What part do chance and necessity play in biology? This book answers these fundamental questions by bringing together the clear and richly documented contributions of mathematicians, physicists, biologists and philosophers who make this book an incomparable tool for work and reflection.

This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)

Like it or not, chance plays a big part in our lives. Every day we face situations where the result is uncertain, and, perhaps without realizing it, we guess about the likelihood of one outcome or another. Fortunately, mastering the concepts of probability can cast new light on situations where randomness and chance appear to rule. In this book, which uses lotteries and casino games to provide the many illustrative examples, the reader can learn about the world of probability. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. Written with wit and clarity, this book can be read easily by anyone who is not put off by a few numbers and some high-school algebra. It is also ideally suited to students of all disciplines taking their first course in probability.

Life is a chancy proposition: from the movement of molecules to the age at which we die, chance plays a key role in the natural world. Traditionally, biologists have viewed the inevitable "noise" of life as an unfortunate complication. The authors of this book, however, treat random processes as a benefit. In this introduction to chance in biology, Mark Denny and Steven Gaines help readers to apply the probability theory needed to make sense of chance events--using examples from ocean waves to spiderwebs, in fields ranging from molecular mechanics to evolution. Through the application of probability theory, Denny and Gaines make predictions about how plants and animals work in a stochastic universe. Is it possible to pack a variety of ion channels into a cell membrane and have each operate at near-peak flow? Why are our arteries rubbery? The concept of a random walk provides the necessary insight. Is there an absolute upper limit to human life span? Could the sound of a cocktail party burst your eardrums? The statistics of extremes allows us to make the appropriate calculations. How long must you wait to see the detail in a moonlit landscape? Can you hear the noise of individual molecules? The authors provide answers to these and many other questions. After an introduction to the basic statistical methods to be used in this book, the authors emphasize the application of probability theory to biology rather than the details of the theory itself. Readers with an introductory background in calculus will be able to follow the reasoning, and sets of problems, together with their solutions, are offered to reinforce concepts. The use of real-world examples, numerous illustrations, and chapter summaries--all presented with clarity and wit--make for a highly accessible text. By relating the theory of probability to the understanding of form and function in living things, the authors seek to pique the reader's curiosity about statistics and provide a new perspective on the role of chance in biology.

Stopping a plague (even zombies), tomorrow’s likelihood of rain, and buying a lottery ticket are united by chance. Wildlife conservation, a baseball box score, and governmental spending are united by the need to record numbers. Statistics and probability measure the current state of something and the relative likelihood of potential future states. This book will explore how common experiences are counted, evaluated, and used to make intelligent decisions for the future based on uncertain outcomes.

Praise for the First Edition “If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations.” - Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio’s “Math Guy” and author of The Math Gene and The Unfinished Game From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition investigates the often surprising effects of risk and chance in our lives. Featuring a timely update, the Second Edition continues to be the go-to guidebook for an entertaining presentation on the mathematics of chance and uncertainty. The new edition develops the fundamental mathematics of probability in a unique, clear, and informal way so readers with various levels of experience with probability can understand the little numbers found in everyday life. Illustrating the concepts of probability through relevant and engaging real-world applications, the Second Edition features numerous examples on weather forecasts, DNA evidence, games and gambling, and medical testing. The revised edition also includes: The application of probability in finance, such as option pricing The introduction of branching processes and the extinction of family names An extended discussion on opinion polls and Nate Silver’s election predictions Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives, Second Edition is an ideal reference for anyone who would like to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as well as a useful supplementary textbook for students in any course dealing with probability.

A Book of True Discoveries in Mathematics The book "Probability Theory, Live!" represents a most thorough introduction to the Theory of Probability, a branch of mathematics. The presentation is scholarly precise, but in an easy-to-understand language. The book is a lot more than gambling and lottery! The author, Ion Saliu, has made important discoveries in probability theory and mathematics in general. For example, the most natural way to calculate e (the base of the ... natural logarithm). They will be studied in schools down the road, despite intense attempts to pirate such ideas. The author takes credit for the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). He has always recognized that FFG started in the 18th century with Abraham de Moivre. The author, however, was the first to bring to light a new law of mathematics: "The degree of certainty increases with the increase in the number of trials, while the probability is a constant." The "odds" never change, but the degree of certainty always changes. But there is a surprising limit: Absolute certainty is a mathematical absurdity. Nothing is absolutely certain - not even Divinity. Everything comes in degrees of certainty. Not only formulas, but the author has written also appropriate software to do the calculations - most of the software is still unique today and the source code intensely sought-after. Yes, gambling is studied extensively in this book. After all, theory of probability has its birth certificate signed in gambling (Blaise Pascal advising Chevalier de Méré). As of "gambling fallacies" - again, Ion Saliu was the first to demonstrate that the "gambler's fallacy" and what he calls the "reversed gambling fallacy" are simply mathematical absurdities. The "live" factor: The book analyzes thoroughly repetition of genetic code sequences and chances of repetition of intelligent life in the Universe. The mathematical - and philosophical - analyses are totally unique. The revised 2012 version corrects the display of formulas and fixes typos (especially created by the superscript or the "raise to power" operator).

In this fully revised second edition of Understanding Probability, the reader can learn about the world of probability in an informal way. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. This second edition has wider coverage, more explanations and examples and exercises, and a new chapter introducing Markov chains, making it a great choice for a first probability course. But its easy-going style makes it just as valuable if you want to learn about the subject on your own, and high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need.