Chaos And Catastrophe Theories

What is chaos? How can it be measured? How are the models estimated? What is catastrophe? How is it modelled? How are the models estimated? These questions are the focus of this volume. Beginning with an explanation of the differences between deterministic and probabilistic models, Brown then introduces the reader to chaotic dynamics. Other topics covered are finding settings in which chaos can be measured, estimating chaos using nonlinear least squares and specifying catastrophe models. Finally a nonlinear system of equations that models catastrophe using real survey data is estimated.

Chaos and catastrophe theories offer a complex new technique for modeling. By posing and answering a series of questions - What is Chaos? How can it be measured? How are the models estimated? What is catastrophe? How is it modeled? - the book introduces the reader to chaotic dynamics. Other topics covered are finding settings in which chaos can be measured, estimating chaos using nonlinear least squares, and specifying catastrophe models. Finally, the author estimates a nonlinear system of equations that models catastrophe using real survey data.

"Now, however, weface an Age of Discontinuity in world economy and tech nology. We might succeed in making it an age of great economic growth as weil. But the one thing that is certain so far is that it will be a period of change-in technology and in economic policy, in industry structures and in economic theo ry, in the knowledge needed to govern and manage, and in economic issues. While we have been busy finishing the great nineteenth-century economic ed ijice, the foundations have shifted beneath our feet." Peter F. Drucker, 1968 The A~e Qf DiscQntinuity, p. 10 This project has had a lQng gestatiQn period, probably ultimately dating to a YQuthful QbsessiQn with watershed divides and bQundaries. My awareness Qf the problem Qf discQntinuity in eCQnQmics dates tQ my first enCQunter with the capi tal theQry paradQxes in the late 1960s, the fruits Qf which can be seen in Chapter 8 Qf this book. This awareness led tQ a frostratiQn Qver the apparent lack Qf a mathematics Qf discQntinuity, a lack that was in the process of rapidly being QverCQme at that time.

From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities presents and unusual perspective on economics and economic analysis. Current economic theory largely depends upon assuming that the world is fundamentally continuous. However, an increasing amount of economic research has been done using approaches that allow for discontinuities such as catastrophe theory, chaos theory, synergetics, and fractal geometry. The spread of such approaches across a variety of disciplines of thought has constituted a virtual intellectual revolution in recent years. This book reviews the applications of these approaches in various subdisciplines of economics and draws upon past economic thinkers to develop an integrated view of economics as a whole from the perspective of inherent discontinuity.

Whether talking about steering a wheelbarrow over rugged terrain or plotting the course of international relations, human performance systems involve change. Sometimes changes are subtle or evolutionary, sometimes they are catastrophic or revolutionary, and sometimes the changes are from periods of relative calm to periods of vibrant oscillations to periods of chaos. As a general rule, more complex systems are likely to produce more complex forms of change. Although social scientists have long acknowledged that change occurs and have considered ways to effect desirable change, the dynamical processes of change have been poorly understood in the past. This volume combines recent advances in mathematics and experimental design with the best available social science theories to produce a new, integrated, and compact theory of work, organizations, and social evolution. The domains of application extend from human decision-making processes to personnel selection and work motivation, work performance under conditions of stress, accident and health risk analysis, the development of social institutions and economic systems, creativity and innovation, organizational development and group dynamics, and political revolutions and war. Relative to other literature on nonlinear dynamical systems theory (NDS), this book is unique in that it integrates new developments in NDS with substantive psychological theory. It builds on many recent developments in organizational theory to show that nonlinear dynamics were often implicit in those works all along. The result is an entirely new way of viewing social events, understanding change processes, and asking questions about social systems. This book also contains much new empirical work and explains the newly developed methods for testing these new hypotheses.

Catastrophe Theory was introduced in the 1960s by the renowned Fields Medal mathematician René Thom as a part of the general theory of local singularities. Since then it has found applications across many areas, including biology, economics, and chemical kinetics. By investigating the phenomena of bifurcation and chaos, Catastrophe Theory proved to

This book focuses on the tensions between processes of consciousness and their products like worldviews, theories, models of thought etc. Staying close to their technical meanings in chaos and catastrophe theory, chaotic processes are described in mainly neurobiological and evolutionary terms while products are delineated in their evolutionary logic. Given both a relative opacity of processes of the mind and of the outside world, the dramatic quality of the processes, a certain closeness to ‘hysterical’ and ‘schizophrenic’ tendencies and, within the context of the weakening orientating power of worldviews, an alarming catastrophic potential emerge. As a consequence, the book aims at a comparative cost-benefit analysis of the transitionality between ‘chaotic’ processes of consciousness and the often ‘catastrophic’ implications of their products within historical frameworks. The central thesis consists in the increasing failure in the orientation of action which cannot be contained by systems of ethics. Materials for this analysis are mainly drawn from texts normally called literary in which the tension between biographical and historical dimensions provides profiles of chaos and catastrophe.

Catastrophe Theory was introduced in the 1960s by the renowned Fields Medal mathematician Rene' Thom as a part of the general theory of local singularities. Since then it has found applications across many areas, including biology, economics, and chemical kinetics. By investigating the phenomena of bifurcation and chaos, Catastrophe Theory proved t