Chaos In Hydrology

This authoritative book presents a comprehensive account of the essential roles of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories in understanding, modeling, and forecasting hydrologic systems. This is done through a systematic presentation of: (1) information on the salient characteristics of hydrologic systems and on the existing theories for their modeling; (2) the fundamentals of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories, methods for chaos identification and prediction, and associated issues; (3) a review of the applications of chaos theory in hydrology; and (4) the scope and potential directions for the future. This book bridges the divide between the deterministic and the stochastic schools in hydrology, and is well suited as a textbook for hydrology courses.

A hydroinformatics system represents an electronic knowledge encapsulator that models part of the real world and can be used for the simulation and analysis of physical, chemical and biological processes in water systems, in order to achieve a better management of the aquatic environment. Thus, modelling is at the heart of hydroinformatics.&n

Mathematical modelling has become an indispensable tool for engineers, scientists, planners, decision makers and many other professionals to make predictions of future scenarios as well as real impending events. As the modelling approach and the model to be used are problem specific, no single model or approach can be used to solve all problems, and there are constraints in each situation. Modellers therefore need to have a choice when confronted with constraints such as lack of sufficient data, resources, expertise and time. Environmental and Hydrological Systems Modelling provides the tools needed by presenting different approaches to modelling the water environment over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Their applications are shown with a series of case studies, taken mainly from the Asia-Pacific Region. Coverage includes: Population dynamics Reaction kinetics Water quality systems Longitudinal dispersion Time series analysis and forecasting Artificial neural networks Fractals and chaos Dynamical systems Support vector machines Fuzzy logic systems Genetic algorithms and genetic programming This book will be of great value to advanced students, professionals, academics and researchers working in the water environment.

This book comprehensively accounts the advances in data-based approaches for hydrologic modeling and forecasting. Eight major and most popular approaches are selected, with a chapter for each stochastic methods, parameter estimation techniques, scaling and fractal methods, remote sensing, artificial neural networks, evolutionary computing, wavelets, and nonlinear dynamics and chaos methods. These approaches are chosen to address a wide range of hydrologic system characteristics, processes, and the associated problems. Each of these eight approaches includes a comprehensive review of the fundamental concepts, their applications in hydrology, and a discussion on potential future directions.

Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in many coastal areas in the world to avoid and mitigate its destructive impacts. For this purpose the physically-based (process) numerical models are typically utilized. However, in data-rich cases, one may use data-driven methods aiming at reconstructing the internal patterns of the modelled processes and relationships between the observed descriptive variables. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory. First, some fundamentals of physical oceanography, nonlinear dynamics and chaos, computational intelligence and European operational storm surge models are covered. After that a number of improvements in building chaotic models are presented: nonlinear time series analysis, multi-step prediction, phase space dimensionality reduction, techniques dealing with incomplete time series, phase error correction, finding true neighbours, optimization of chaotic model, data assimilation and multi-model ensemble prediction. The major case study is surge prediction in the North Sea, with some tests on a Caribbean Sea case. The modelling results showed that the enhanced predictive chaotic models can serve as an efficient tool for accurate and reliable short and mid-term predictions of storm surges in order to support decision-makers for flood prediction and ship navigation.

"This book provides relevant theoretical frameworks and empirical research findings in the area hydroinformatics to assist professionals to improve their understanding of the development and use of decision support tools to support decision making and integrated water management at different organizational levels and domains"--Provided by publisher.