China S Domestic Transformation In A Global Context

The phrase ‘New Normal’ captures the ongoing shift in the pattern and drivers of China’s economic growth. China’s new growth rate is both slower and imposing difficult structural change. These new economic conditions are challenging yet offer opportunities for China and its economic partners. Reforms must be deepened but also make growth more inclusive and environmentally sustainable, over this decade and beyond. This year’s Update offers both global context and domestic insight into this challenging new phase of China’s domestic economic transformation. How are policymakers elevating migrant workers concurrent with increasing consumption? Is China’s government spending enough on education and R&D to ensure it can achieve its aspirations to ascend the global manufacturing value chain and avoid the middle-income trap? Are energy market reforms reducing or increasing the price of gas and electricity in China? What are the consequences of China’s financial reforms and expanding Renminbi trading for foreign banks? What does China’s new growth model mean for the international resources economy and for Africa? Do SOEs face market conditions and are they dominating China’s fast-rising outbound investment? What is China’s strategy for navigating fragmented international trade policy negotiations?

The phrase 'New Normal' captures the ongoing shift in the pattern and drivers of China's economic growth. China's new growth rate is both slower and imposing difficult structural change. These new economic conditions are challenging yet offer opportunities for China and its economic partners. Reforms must be deepened but also make growth more inclusive and environmentally sustainable, over this decade and beyond. This year's Update offers both global context and domestic insight into this challenging new phase of China's domestic economic transformation. How are policymakers elevating migrant workers concurrent with increasing consumption? Is China's government spending enough on education and R&D to ensure it can achieve its aspirations to ascend the global manufacturing value chain and avoid the middle-income trap? Are energy market reforms reducing or increasing the price of gas and electricity in China? What are the consequences of China's financial reforms and expanding Renminbi trading for foreign banks? What does China's new growth model mean for the international resources economy and for Africa? Do SOEs face market conditions and are they dominating China's fast-rising outbound investment? What is China's strategy for navigating fragmented international trade policy negotiations?

China's rise has become inevitable, but there is no agreement about whether China will rise peacefully or pose a threat to the United States. The author asserts that both theories of "China threat" and "peaceful rise" failed to address China's central domestic problem. Thus, both theories are not convincing. This book attempts to develop a third view of China's rise from a domestic perspective and contends that China's potential threat to the existing global order is not derived from her rapid economic growth and military expansion, but from her potential domestic chaos. A strong democratic China will contribute to the global peace, but the collapse of China will gravely threaten Western societies. The current Chinese political system directly contributes to this social instability and could possibly cause China's social crash. China's democratization is the key to ensure China's peaceful rise in a global context. However, the Party is still in power and any attempt to dissolve the one-party system in presentday China has poor prospects. China must take a two-step, gradual reform approach to complete the transition from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one. In the two-step theory, the first phase for promoting China's democratization includes exercising freedom of media, increasing the consciousness of citizen participation, and enacting religious rights. Through all these democratic exercises, China will gradually be able to achieve a fully democratic society. This two-step theory is crucial forthe United States if it is to enact effective foreign policy toward China and for China to develop a democratic harmonious society.

This book takes a fresh look at Chinese political economy at a key inflection point. Facing a more competitive international environment, Chinese reform has shifted from its earlier focus on economic liberalization and political decentralization to a more tightly organized, centralized form of state socialism. The Party-state's vigorous fiscal reaction to the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) left the country with a much improved infrastructure and greater sense of national self-assurance. The more monocratic central leadership has redoubled efforts to fight poverty and pollution, push technological innovation, and at the same time rigorously enforce ideological consensus, political loyalty and anticorruption.This has been occurring in an international context of slowing trade and nationalist pushback against 'globalization', prominently including bilateral Chinese-American polarization. While China has been among the staunchest advocates and beneficiaries of globalization, incipient trade war 'decoupling' has spurred movement toward economic and technological self-reliance. Turning inward however vies with a rival impulse toward more vigorous engagement in the world. This is most consequentially represented by the Belt and Road Initiative, driving massive infrastructure construction through Central Asia and the South and Southeast Asian maritime periphery. Despite slowing growth and a large debt overhang, swift recovery from the Covid-19 epidemic leaves China in a relatively strong economic position.

Critical analysis of RMB internationalization and the coming global currency shift Renminbi Rising charts the emergence of China's internationalizing currency and provides an in-depth analysis of the global repercussions. Written by a team of renown economics researchers, this book describes the pressures that enabled the emergence of a new global monetary system and why China's Renminbi (RMB) became the default 'second in line' as the U.S. receded from leadership. Policy makers and regulators will appreciate the examination of the motivations behind those driving the shift, and financial professionals will find valuable guidance in the discussion surrounding business opportunities that the RMB brings to the table. Coverage includes the emergence of new Chinese-sponsored financial institutions, the scale of various RMB businesses and the coming transformation of the global financial system. Effective management of international monetary affairs has never been more fundamental to the global economic recovery. The rapid emergence of China's RMB is a transformative event of global significance, and this book provides the context you need to understand the depth and breadth of changes on the horizon. Understand why a new global monetary system is needed Consider the outcomes as China emerges and the U.S. recedes Learn the context and motivations behind principal players' strategies Discover the scale of opportunities presented by the rise of the RMB It is essential for finance professionals and economic policy makers to understand the drivers, progress and likely trajectory of the RMB internationalization and to fully grasp the implications for the global financial system, international business and supporting financial products and services. Renminbi Rising offers detailed analysis of the key opportunities and threats inherent in this major economic shift.

Where the last three decades of the 20th century witnessed a China rising on to the global economic stage, the first three decades of the 21st century are almost certain to bring with them the completion of that rise, not only in economic, but also political and geopolitical terms. China's integration into the global economy has brought one-fifth of the global population into the world trading system, which has increased global market potential and integration to an unprecedented level. The increased scale and depth of international specialisation propelled by an enlarged world market has offered new opportunities to boost world production, trade and consumption; with the potential for increasing the welfare of all the countries involved. However, China's integration into the global economy has forced a worldwide reallocation of economic activities. This has increased various kinds of friction in China's trading and political relations with others, as well as generating several globally significant externalities. Finding ways to accommodate China's rise in a way that ensures the future stability and prosperity of the world economy and polity is probably the most important task facing the world community in the first half of the 21st century. The book delves into these issues to reflect upon the wide range of opportunities and challenges that have emerged in the context of a rising China.

Decades ago, there was no distinct middle class in the People's Republic of China. Any meaningful discussion of China's economy, politics, or society must take into account the rapid emergence and explosive growth of the Chinese middle class. This book details the origins and characteristics of this dramatic change.

The global implications of China's rise as a global actor In 2005, a senior official in the George W. Bush administration expressed the hope that China would emerge as a “responsible stakeholder” on the world stage. A dozen years later, the Trump administration dramatically shifted course, instead calling China a “strategic competitor” whose actions routinely threaten U.S. interests. Both assessments reflected an underlying truth: China is no longer just a “rising” power. It has emerged as a truly global actor, both economically and militarily. Every day its actions affect nearly every region and every major issue, from climate change to trade, from conflict in troubled lands to competition over rules that will govern the uses of emerging technologies. To better address the implications of China's new status, both for American policy and for the broader international order, Brookings scholars conducted research over the past two years, culminating in a project: Global China: Assessing China's Growing Role in the World. The project is intended to furnish policy makers and the public with hard facts and deep insights for understanding China's regional and global ambitions. The initiative draws not only on Brookings's deep bench of China and East Asia experts, but also on the tremendous breadth of the institution's security, strategy, regional studies, technological, and economic development experts. Areas of focus include the evolution of China's domestic institutions; great power relations; the emergence of critical technologies; Asian security; China's influence in key regions beyond Asia; and China's impact on global governance and norms. Global China: Assessing China's Growing Role in the World provides the most current, broad-scope, and fact-based assessment of the implications of China's rise for the United States and the rest of the world.