China S Guaranteed Bubble

The truth about China’s financial industry—and the growing bubble that’s guaranteed to blow it apart... In recent years, the Chinese economy has been fueled by the implicit guarantee of major banks and local governments by the nation’s central government. The resultant bubble has led to the emergence of a large shadow banking industry that poses major risks to China’s real estate market, speculative stock investments, state-owned enterprises, and more. It’s not a matter of if China’s bubble will burst. It’s a matter of when. This eye-opening book from renowned financial scholar Ning Zhu provides a provocative in-depth analysis of China’s current economic practices—and the profound dangers they pose—as well as a powerful wake-up call to investors, regulators, and the entire financial industry. Zhu’s book is packed with startling revelations, including: * The enormous impact of China’s implicit guarantees on economic growth—and what will happen when those guarantees are gone * The ever-increasing size of China’s shadow banking industry—and how it’s just the tip of the iceberg * The once-reliable strength of China’s real estate and stock markets—and how they’re threatened by government distortion * The latest financial innovations and channels—and how they are circumventing regulations and triggering unprecedented risks Filled with fascinating case studies, worst case scenarios, and a well-argued case for much-needed reforms, Zhu’s enlightening book is a must-read for anyone with interests or investments in China’s rapidly changing economy. You’ll find intriguing new perspectives on traditional growth models, innovative solutions for overcapacity problems, and revealing new stats on so-called Voodoo Statistics. You’ll get a glimpse behind the curtain of the “unknown unknowns” of China’s implicit guarantees—and learn just how misleading these government policies can be. Most importantly, Zhu’s book provides solid recommendations for diffusing the time bomb these guarantees can and will set off. Brilliant, incisive, and ultimately optimistic, China’s Guaranteed Bubble will incite a much-needed call for change and set us on a new path of prosperity and growth—for China, the economy, and the world.

A provocative perspective on the fragile fundamentals, and forces for resilience, in the Chinese economy, and a forecast for the future on alternate scenarios of collapse and ascendance.

This book presents a collection of articles by Lawrence Juen-yee Lau from 1994 to 2018, discussing Chinese economic development over the past decades. Lau evaluates the relative importance of different sources of growth for the Chinese economy and scrutinizes the strategy of reform and development at various stages.

The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

In Understanding China’s Economic Indicators, leading economist and Wall Street Journal columnist Thomas M. Orlik introduces 35 of China's most significant economic statistics. Orlik explains why each indicator matters, how it is collected and computed, and its impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets. As China has emerged as a central player in the global economy, more and more investors are seeking profitable opportunities there. To choose the right investments, it's crucial to understand China's economic environment–and that means finding, interpreting, and utilizing China's growing base of economic indicators. Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. He draws on the best information supplied by the Chinese government's statistical agency, ministries, and industry associations, as well as private sources. Each indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its implications for investors.

This deeply researched account of the future of China's economy describes China's top macroeconomic trends and how you can profit from them. These trends affect everyone, inside and outside of China. Between now and 2018, many new opportunities exist for businesspeople, investors and individuals who want to take advantage of China's economic transformation. Researcher and China expert Jason Inch shows you how to understand China's economic development from a new perspective so that you can position your business, portfolio or career for the maximum return. The author's insights into China's economy, its people and its political leaders have been gained through over eight years of on-the-ground experience working in China and two decades of research. Based on discussions with CEOs, professors, politicians and entrepreneurs, this book explains why some have succeeded in China and others have not and helps you to become one of the success stories. The key to understanding the next phase of China's economic growth until 2018 is found within China's three growth engines, the three turbochargers, its roadmap and the four economic supertrends. For decades, the Chinese central government relied on exports and foreign investment to develop the Chinese economy. Now it is time for the Chinese consumer to be a new growth engine of the Chinese economy. The other growth engines are still important, and all will be powered forward by the turbochargers, three forces that explain why China will succeed in shaping its domestic and the global economy faster than any thought possible. A full chapter on China's roadmap--the Five-Year Plan and related documents--helps the reader understand the direction China's industry and economy will take in the next five years, ideal for strategic positioning, stock portfolio planning or new career directions. Finally, China's four economic supertrends--new manufacturing, urbanization, sustainability and affluence--show the areas where businesses, investors and professionals should concentrate their actions and effort. These supertrends hold the greatest opportunities as China progresses through its Olympic Decade, from 2008 to 2018. These ideas were first documented in the 2008 book Supertrends of Future China. Jason Inch and his co-author Dr. James K. Yuann accurately predicted that China would not only survive the global financial crisis, but thrive. This completely revised and updated work continues and expands the successful supertrends model for business success and investment returns. As a strategic manual for executives, a guide for investors, or inspiration for individuals charting new career paths, China's Economic Supertrends offers unique insights and ideas to the reader.

The recent downturn in the Chinese economy has become a focal point of global attention, with some analysts warning that China is edging dangerously close to economic meltdown. Is it possible that the second largest economy in the world could collapse and drag the rest of the world with it? In this penetrating essay, Ann Lee explains both why China's economy will not sink us all and the policy options on which it is drawing on to mitigate against such a catastrophic scenario. Dissecting with realistic clarity the challenges facing the Chinese economy, she makes a compelling case for its continued robustness in multiple sectors in the years ahead.

If you look carefully at how things are actually made in China - from shirts to toys, apple juice to oil rigs - you see a reality that contradicts every widely-held notion about the world's so-called economic powerhouse. From the inside looking out, China is not a manufacturing juggernaut. It's a Lilliputian. Nor is it a killer of American jobs. It's a huge job creator. Rising China is importing goods from America in such volume that millions of U.S. jobs are sustained through Chinese trade and investment. In Unmade in China, entrepreneur and Georgetown University business professor Jeremy Haft lifts the lid on the hidden world of China's intricate supply chains. Informed by years of experience building new companies in China, Haft's unique, insider’s view reveals a startling picture of an economy which struggles to make baby formula safely, much less a nuclear power plant. Using firm-level data and recent case studies, Unmade in China tells the story of systemic risk in Chinese manufacturing and why this is both really bad and really good news for America.