China S Monetary Policy And Interest Rate Liberalization

China has been moving to a more market oriented financial system, which has implications for the monetary policy environment. The paper investigates the stability of the money demand function (MDF) in light of progress in financial sector reforms that, for example, have resulted in significant financial innovation (so-called shadow banking) and more liberalized interest rates. The analysis of international experience suggests that rapid development of the financial system often leads to structural shifts in the MDF. For example, financial innovation and liberalization alter the sensitivity of money balances to income and the interest rate. For China, we find that the stable long-run relationship between money demand, output, and interest rates that existed between 2002 and 2008 disappears after 2008. This coincides with the period of rapid financial innovation, especially the growth in off-balance sheet and nonbank financial intermediation. The results suggest that usefulness of M2 as an intermediate monetary target has declined with financial innovation and reform. A result that underscores the importance of moving toward increased reliance on more price-based targets such as interest rates.

What might interest rate liberalization do to intermediation and the cost of capital in China? China's most binding interest rate control is a ceiling on the deposit rate, although lending rates are also regulated. Through case studies and model-based simulations, we find that liberalization will likely result in higher interest rates, discourage marginal investment, improve the effectiveness of intermediation and monetary transmission, and enhance the financial access of underserved sectors. This can occur without any major disruption. International experience suggests, however, that achieving these benefits without unnecessary instability, requires vigilant supervision, governance, and monetary policy, and a flexible policy toolkit.

The market-based interest rate reform remains a core part of China’s financial reforms, and an important topic of both theoretical and policy studies. This book presents a comprehensive analysis of the process and logic of China’s interest rate reform from a historical perspective. It is structured along three lines, i.e. loosening interest rate controls, establishing market-based interest rates, and building an effective interest rate adjustment mechanism, and systematically reviews the characteristics and evolvement of the reform process. The book further explores the lessons and challenges of the reform by examining China’s development stage and auxiliary reforms needed, and offers policy recommendations on how to further push forward the reform.

Financial markets are eager for any signal of monetary policy from the People’s Bank of China (PBC). The importance of effective monetary policy communication will only increase as China continues to liberalize its financial system and open its economy. This paper discusses the country’s unique institutional setup and empirically analyzes the impact on financial markets of the PBC’s main communication channels, including a novel communication channel. The results suggest that there has been significant progress but that PBC communication is still evolving toward the level of other major economies. The paper recommends medium-term policy reforms and reforms that can be adopted quickly.

Annotation What might interest rate liberalization do to intermediation and the cost of capital in China? China's most binding interest rate control is a ceiling on the deposit rate, although lending rates are also regulated. Through case studies and model-based simulations, we find that liberalization will likely result in higher interest rates, discourage marginal investment, improve the effectiveness of intermediation and monetary transmission, and enhance the financial access of underserved sectors. This can occur without any major disruption. International experience suggests, however, that achieving these benefits without unnecessary instability, requires vigilant supervision, governance, and monetary policy, and a flexible policy toolkit.

Reforging the Central Bank presents an insightful comparison between financial development in China — a rising global economic superpower — under the old and new normal and an all-encapsulating study of current monetary transmission mechanism and monetary policy instruments. Focusing on the "top-level design" for Chinese financial system and the reformation of People's Bank of China (PBoC), China's central bank, Dr Deng, head of the Fixed Income Research Department at CITIC Securities, and his team provide a deep analysis with useful suggestions and bold predictions for the central bank's new policy framework, new objectives, and new mechanisms in the future. As such, the carefully presented analysis of this book will be of value to researchers and curious readers who are interested in understanding of China's — a rising global economic superpower — future financial development environment. Contents:"The Old Normal" and China's Central BankRestructuring Government–Market Relation — SuperstructuralismA New View of Interest Rate LiberalizationNew Objectives of Monetary PolicyNew Monetary Policy ToolsNew Transmission Mechanism for Monetary PolicyThe Central Bank in Big Data Era Readership: Researchers, economists, finance professionals, analysts, individual investors, monetary and banking authorities in Asia and general readers who are interested in China's reform in its financial system, particularly the central bank's new policy framework. Key Features:First book to propose the idea of "Central Bank 4.0"This book provides the most up-to-date analysis on China's central bank, including interest rate liberalization, Shanghai FTZ, the big data application etc.Contributed by top experts, including those from China's central bank and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The People's Bank of China (PBC) has made great strides in modernizing its monetary policy frameworks but their effectiveness will diminish as the sophistication of the economy increases. Empirical evidence supports maintaining a reference to money in China's monetary strategy and enhancing the role of interest rates in its conduct. We advocate adoption of an eclectic strategy involving the monitoring of several indicators, and of a short-term interest rate as the operational target. The PBC should be granted discretion to change its policy rate, and there are no technical obstacles for such a move to occur in the near future.