China S Uncertain Future

Based on his experience as a scholar and diplomat stationed in China, Jean-Luc Domenach consults a wealth of archival and contemporary materials to examine ChinaÕs place in the world. A sympathetic yet critical observer, Domenach brings his intimate knowledge of the country to bear on a range of crucial issues, such as the growth (or deterioration) of ChinaÕs economy, the governmentÕs ever-delayed democratization, the potential outcomes of a national political crisis, and the possible escalation of a revamped authoritarianism. Domenach ultimately reads ChinaÕs current progress as a set of easy accomplishments presaging a more difficult era of development. His finely nuanced analysis captures the difficult decisions now confronting ChinaÕs elite, who are under tremendous pressure to support an economy based on innovation and consumption, establish a political system based on law and popular participation, rethink their national identity and spatial organization, and define a more positive approach to the worldÕs problems. These leaders are also besieged by corruption among their ranks, an increasingly restless urban population, and a sharp decline in the countryÕs demographic growth. Domenach taps into these anxieties and the attempt to alleviate them, revealing a China much less confident and secure than many would believe.

Explores Hong Kong's history and culture in detail, profiling the powers behind Hong Kong's business and political worlds.

The papers in this book address the issue of Taiwan-Hong Kong-China (PRC) relations after the return of Hong Kong to China.

China’s inexorable rise as a major world power is one of the defining features of the contemporary political landscape. But should we heed the warnings of a so-called ‘China threat?’ Is China set to become the next superpower? Or will its ambitions be tempered by economic and political realities both at home and abroad? In this insightful and balanced analysis, noted China expert Stuart Harris explores China’s present foreign policy and its motivations, focusing in particular on the extent to which China will co-operate with the West in years to come. He considers what factors, international or domestic, will influence the foreign policies being shaped in Beijing, including how far the Chinese regime will adhere to existing global norms and the evolving international system. In contemplating this uncertain future, Harris assesses the considerable challenges and vulnerabilities likely to impact on Chinese foreign policy, leading it to be cautious and hesitant or assertive and aggressive on the international stage. Concise and authoritative, this book will be essential reading for anyone seeking a clearer understanding of the international relations of one of the world’s most important powers.

China’s future development is likely to have a huge impact on twenty-first century global outcomes. It is therefore surprising that, thus far, so little attention has been given to comparing and evaluating expert forecasts of China’s future in the post-Mao era. This book presents an illuminating and comprehensive summary record of contrasting and competing expert forecasts and judgements about the major issues confronting China within four principal domains – political, economic, environmental, and international. After considering the principal forecasting methods available to experts, the author comments critically on the degree of success achieved in using those methods and emphasises the confusion created by the polarisation of opinion and by the failure of many experts to accept the high degree of uncertainty that characterises most of the key issues. The book recommends a new approach based on the study of a hierarchy of critical uncertainties and on continuing analysis of opposing expert opinions about these uncertainties. It emphasises the potential for both positive and negative outcomes for these critical uncertainties, and the importance of maximising the potential for positive outcomes through improved analytical and policy frameworks. Providing insights for specialists and non-specialists into the most critical issues that will determine China’s future direction, this book will be of particular interest to students and scholars of political, economic, environmental, and international relations issues in China and Asia, as well as to readers in business and government.

This title was first published in 2000: The papers in this volume address the issue of Taiwan-Hong Kong-China (PRC) relations in the aftermath of the return of Hong Kong to China. The examine the development of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong in the light of its return to Chinese sovereignty and compare nationalist with democratic management of PRC-Taiwan relations. They explore Taiwan's emerging democracy and its impact on Taiwan-PRC relations exploring PRC's efforts at reunification. A historical account of Taiwan-Hong Kong relations is provided, including projections for the possible future direction of these relations. Freedom of the press is also examined in the context of PRC-Hong Kong relations, along with a look at the contributing factors in the development of an emerging Taiwanese identity and a study of the implication of the reversion of Hong Kong to Chinese rule for Taiwan, PRC and the Asia-Pacific region as a whole.