Climate Change Adaptation Strategies For Egypt S Agricultural Sector A Suite Of Technologies Approach

Climate change negatively affects Egypt’s agriculture sector. This brief summarizes the results of a modeling exercise to examine a range of climate change adaptation approaches to counteract agricultural productivity declines. Rather than simulating a single technology, a ‘suite of technologies’ approach was used. For several food crops, none of the technology suites, individually or in combination, are shown to counteract the adverse impacts of climate change. For these crops, which include maize, oilseeds, pulses, and sugar, even stacking of technologies will not return productivity to pre-climate change levels. However, for fruits and vegetables, potatoes, rice, and wheat, crops less adversely affected by climate change, increased investments in climate changeresponsive crop traits, soil fertility improvement, water management, crop protection, or a combination of these technologies can counteract the adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. From a policy perspective, strong cooperation with the rest of the world on climate change adaptation will ultimately benefit Egyptian consumers. Doing so will reduce disruption of global food markets, which is of particular importance for countries, like Egypt, that are well integrated into those markets. In particular, Egypt’s economy and all Egyptian consumers benefit from the importation of lower-value, high water-consuming cereals under the hotter and drier conditions that can be expected in Egypt in the future due to climate change.

With climate change, Egypt’s already arid climate will face even higher temperatures and lower rainfall over key agricultural areas, requiring further urgent adaptation investments. Data from three general circulation models of climate were used to better understand the likely effects of climate changes on Egypt’s agricultural sector. The findings show largely adverse biophysical effects of climate change by 2050. Compared to a no-climate change scenario, yields for food crops are projected to decline by over 10 percent by 2050 due to higher temperatures and water stress as well as increased salinity of irrigation water. The highest biophysical yield declines are estimated for maize, sugar crops, and fruits and vegetables. Moreover, due to the country’s dependence on food imports, Egypt is not only affected by climate change impacts at home, but also by impacts in other food producing countries. Climate change-induced increases in food prices will reduce Egypt’s food import demand, while also dampening demand for Egypt’s exports. The implications for Egypt are tighter food markets with both reduced domestic production and increased difficulties to import food making it more difficult to augment domestic food supplies. This situation suggests the need for investments in climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. Global cooperation to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is also warranted given the high cost to Egypt’s society from adverse climate change impacts worldwide.

The importance of a resilient agriculture sector in providing food security, livelihoods, and household income was highlighted in many countries by the recent pandemic, as was the capacity of the sector to cushion the negative impacts of the subsequent economic slowdown. This has been the case in Egypt, where agriculture has been resilient to the health crisis in comparison with the service and industry sectors (Breisinger et al. 2020). However, the sector’s resiliency is gradually being corroded by climate change, with lasting, harmful effects for agriculture and food systems.

This book gathers contributions discussing climate change in Egypt from an agricultural perspective. Written by leading experts, it presents state-of-the-art insights and the latest research developments in light of the most recent IPCC report. Focusing on identifying the specific phenomena that affect climate change in Egypt, the book also addresses the effects of climate change in Egypt, particularly examining the quality and quantity of water resources as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change on agricultural activities. Furthermore, it explores alternative solutions to support agriculture and food security and raises awareness of adaptation and protection as the key to adapting to the risks posed by climate change. Covering the four fundamental pillars of climate change: food security, availability, access and stability, this book is a valuable resource for stakeholders involved in achieving the 2030 sustainable development goals in Egypt and all countries with similar climatic conditions. It is also a unique source of information and updates on climate change impacts for graduates, researchers, policy planners, and decision-makers.

This publication aims to assist countries in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities posed by climate change in the agricultural sector in order to increase climate resilience and adapt to climate change. The report presents local-level priorities, informed by stakeholder input, to build agricultural resilience in both countries. The objectives of this study are threefold: 1) to improve the understanding of climate change projections and impacts on rural communities and livelihoods in selected regions of Jordan and Lebanon, specifically the Jordan River Valley and Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley; 2) to engage local communities, farmers, local experts, and local and national government representatives in a participatory fashion in helping craft agricultural adaptation options to climate change; and 3) to develop local and regional climate change action plans that formulate recommendations for investment strategies and strategic interventions in local agricultural systems. Therefore, this publication may serve as the analytical underpinning for ongoing discussions taking place within the governments, including the Ministries of Agriculture and Environment, on how to best move forward in building agricultural resilience to climate change.

The countries of West Asia and North Africa (WANA) have long had the challenge of providing sustainable livelihoods for their populations in the fragile ecosystems of semi-arid and arid areas. Climate change is already a reality in WANA and it places additional constraints on the already fragile ecosystems of dry areas and limited natural resources in WANA. A comprehensive and integrated approach to planning and implementing the climate change adaptation strategies across the wide range of agro-ecosystems in different countries in WANA could help both the planners and the local communities to deal effectively with the projected impacts and also contribute to overall sustainability of agricultural production systems. This book addresses the important issue of climate change and food security in West Asia and North Africa and presents the appropriate strategies which could help in the development of new policies to better adapt agriculture production systems and enhance food security in WANA.