Climate Change And Hunger Estimating Costs Of Adaptation In The Agrifood System

This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hunger in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future, over half of them in Africa south of the Sahara. Increased investments can offset these impacts. Achieving this would require that annual investment in international agricultural research increase from US$1.62 billion to US$2.77 billion per year between 2015 and 2050. Additional water and infrastructure investments are estimated to be more expensive than agricultural R&D at about US$12.7 billion and US$10.8 billion per year, respectively, but these address key gaps to support transformation toward food system resiliency. Findings on ranges of costs and trade-offs and complementarities across SDGs will help policymakers make better-informed choices between alternative investment strategies.

This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being.

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to the world’s food systems. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events threaten agricultural production and the biodiversity and ecosystem services that underpin agriculture. Within food systems, climate change affects processing, storage, transport, and retailing of food and affects our food environments. These growing climate risks impact food security, nutrition, and human health, as well as equity and livelihoods, with poor food producers and consumers hit hardest. They make food systems a riskier source of income and reduce the availability of food — worsening poverty and inequity, disrupting livelihoods, and contributing to hunger and malnutrition. At the same time, food systems are failing to provide healthy diets for all, and are generating one-third of human-caused greenhouse gases. Solutions must address this complex nexus of problems. Climate change adaptation and resilience-building efforts for food systems must be accelerated to reverse growing malnutrition, ensure that all people can access healthy diets, and provide sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, efforts to transform food systems work to reduce their environmental footprint. Farmers and small businesses along food value chains in low- and middle-income countries will have to adapt their practices to a climate marked by extreme weather events and changing seasonal patterns in order to meet growing and changing food demand, while also contributing to mitigation. Support for this critical transformation requires not only the development, dissemination, and adoption of appropriate low-emissions, climate-smart technologies and practices, but also a focus on the policies, institutions, governance, and behavior change that can promote sustainable, inclusive food systems.

Roughly a billion people around the world continue to live in state of chronic hunger and food insecurity. Unfortunately, efforts to improve their livelihoods must now unfold in the context of a rapidly changing climate, in which warming temperatures and changing rainfall regimes could threaten the basic productivity of the agricultural systems on which most of the world’s poor directly depend. But whether climate change represents a minor impediment or an existential threat to development is an area of substantial controversy, with different conclusions wrought from different methodologies and based on different data. This book aims to resolve some of the controversy by exploring and comparing the different methodologies and data that scientists use to understand climate’s effects on food security. In explains the nature of the climate threat, the ways in which crops and farmers might respond, and the potential role for public and private investment to help agriculture adapt to a warmer world. This broader understanding should prove useful to both scientists charged with quantifying climate threats, and policy-makers responsible for crucial decisions about how to respond. The book is especially suitable as a companion to an interdisciplinary undergraduate or graduate level class.

This paper summarizes the findings of the Working Group II contributions to the International Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report which runs into over 3 000 pages, focusing on the assessment’s conclusions and their effect on agrifood systems. The Assessment Reports of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are important as they provide policy makers with state of knowledge assessments on climate change, its implications, and potential future risks. These assessments also put forward adaptation and mitigation options.

Due to the urgent need to protect communities, ecosystems, and economies from the impacts of a changing climate, adaptation is becoming increasingly relevant. Climate change is already a significant stressor on most global and local value chains and threatens food security. This makes timely implementation of sustainable adaptation actions that catalyse agrifood system resilience indispensable for working towards better nutrition, better environments and better production, leaving no one behind. Recognizing the important role adaptation plays for agrifood systems, and its prominence in the Paris Agreement, the paper presents and reflects on FAO’s repertoire of different adaptation actions and solutions. Complementing the conclusion of the Global Stocktake at COP28, it comprehensively summarizes FAO’s efforts to boost progress in global adaptation actions. The paper (a) emphasizes the importance of bringing agrifood systems into the global adaptation agenda and policy landscape; (b) creates a cross-sectoral portfolio of FAO adaptation solutions covering multiple scales and approaches; (c) gives an insight into FAO's work with partners and Members and presents relevant networks and collaborations. Laying out FAO’s guiding principles according to the FAO Strategy on Climate Change 2022–2031, it underscores FAO’s efforts for transformative action in agrifood systems and demonstrates FAO's people-centered approach to climate change adaptation.