Climate Change And The Future Fire Environment In Ontario

The increased fi re load is expected to increase the cost of fi re management in the province 16% by the year 2040 and 54% by the year 2090 over year 2000 costs, exclusive of infl ation or other factors. [...] In addition to increases in seasonal fi re severity indices, a number of these studies also predict increases in the frequency of occurrence of extreme fi re danger in some areas of the country (e.g., Stocks et al. [...] This study uses lightning- and people-caused fi re occurrence models developed specifi cally for Ontario with GCM projections of future climate and Ontario's level of protection analysis software, LEOPARDS (see McAlpine and Hirsch 1999) to estimate the impacts of climate change on the fi re management organization both in terms of numbers of escaped fi res and with respect to changes in operationa [...] The sites of the GCM grid cell centres and OMNR weather stations used are shown in Figure 1. Fire Weather and Fire Danger To create the fi re climate of a future decade, the monthly anomalies were applied to the daily data from the OMNR fi re weather station archive from the years 1992-2001 (corresponding to the period over which lightning records were available). [...] The Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992) was used in conjunction with the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI) (calculated on the detection date of the fi re using the FWI System), and the fuel type associated with the fi re to estimate an initial rate of spread for each fi re.

This report updates a review of literature about the effects of global climate change on forest plants and communities published in 1998. The focus is on changes in Ontario predicted for forest fires, insect outbreaks, disease, forest growth, species composition, harvest rates, wood supply, genetics and regeneration, and carbon-based forest management.--Includes text from document.

Reviews literature concerning the effects of global climate change on forest plants and communities, and provides opinions on the potential impacts that climate change may have on Ontario forests. Sections of the review discuss the following: the climate of Ontario in the 21st century as predicted by climate models; forest hydrology in relation to climate change; insects and climate change; impacts on fungi in the forest ecosystem; impacts on forest fires and their management; plant physiological responses; genetic implications of climate change; forest vegetation dynamics; the use of models in global climate change studies; and forest management responses to climate change.

A tiny organism called pollen pulls off one of nature’s key tasks: plant reproduction. Pollination involves a complex network of different species interacting with one another and mutually adapting to their ecosystems, which are constantly changing. Some pollen grains require just a puff of wind to set them in motion, but most plants depend on creatures gifted with mobility. These might be birds, bats, reptiles, or insects including butterflies, beetles, flies, wasps, and over twenty thousand species of bee. In Paths of Pollen Stephen Humphrey asks readers to imagine a tipping point where plants and pollinators can no longer adapt to stressors such as urbanization, modern agriculture, and global climate change. Illuminating the science of pollination ecology through evocative encounters with biologists, conservationists, and beekeepers, Humphrey illustrates the significance of pollination to such diverse concerns as food supply, biodiversity, rising global temperatures, and the resilience of landscapes. As human actions erase habitats and raise the planet’s temperature, plant diversity is dropping and a growing list of pollinators faces decline or even extinction. Paths of Pollen chronicles pollen’s vital mission to spread plant genes, from the prehistoric past to the present, while looking towards an ecologically uncertain future.

Forest managers can expect the unexpected and they can expect that change will be ongoing and unrelenting. Some general recommendations for beginning to address climate change in Canada's forest sector include enhancing the capacity to undertake integrated assessment of vulnerabilities to climate change at various scales; increasing resources to monitor the impacts of climate change; increasing resources for impacts and adaptation science; reviewing forest policies, forest planning, forest management approaches, and institutions to assess our ability to achieve social objectives under climate change; embedding principles of risk management and adaptive management into forest management; and maintaining or improving the capacity for communicating, networking, and information sharing with the Canadian public and within the forest sector."--Pub. website.

Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks identifies the top risk areas based on the extent and likelihood of the potential damage, and rates the risk areas according to society’s ability to adapt and reduce negative outcomes. These 12 major areas of risk are: agriculture and food, coastal communities, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry, geopolitical dynamics, governance and capacity, human health and wellness, Indigenous ways of life, northern communities, physical infrastructure, and water. The report describes an approach to inform federal risk prioritization and adaptation responses. The Panel outlines a multi-layered method of prioritizing adaptation measures based on an understanding of the risk, adaptation potential, and federal roles and responsibilities.

The catastrophic runaway wildfires advancing through North America and other parts of the world are not unprecedented. Fires loomed large once human activity began to warm the climate in the 1820s, leading to an aggressive firefighting strategy that has left many of the continent’s forests too old and vulnerable to the fires that many tree species need to regenerate. Dark Days at Noon provides a broad history of wildfire in North America, from before European contact to the present, in the hopes that we may learn from how we managed fire in the past, and apply those lessons in the future. As people continue to move into forested landscapes to work, play, live, and ignite fires – intentionally or unintentionally – fire has begun to take its toll, burning entire towns, knocking out utilities, closing roads, and forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people. Fire management in North America requires attention and cooperation from both sides of the border, and many of the most significant fires have taken place at the boundary line. Despite a clear lack of urgency among political leaders, Edward Struzik argues that wildfire science needs to guide the future of fire management, and that those same leaders need to shape public perception accordingly. By explaining how society’s misguided response to fire has led to our current situation, Dark Days at Noon warns of what may happen in the future if we do not learn to live with fire as the continent’s Indigenous Peoples once did.

A large body of research has documented evidence of climate change impact already occurring on different systems on earth, future impacts can be expected. Accordingly, research is urgently needed to analyze the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems in order to contribute to better landscape planning and management. This thesis investigates how climate change affects landscape change, and how to use this understanding in the analysis of land-use and landscape planning and management to adapt to climate change impacts. In particular, this study examines how climate change may impact a managed forest in terms of timber availability, and the regional community that relies on it for its survival. I hypothesized that the Boreal forest in north western Ontario will change in the short term (i.e. 60 years) in species composition and will produce less available timber as a result of human-induced climate change as modeled by different General Circulation Models plus harvesting, compared to a baseline climate. The study objectives were (a) to evaluate the degree of change in land cover (species composition) under forest harvesting and various climate change scenarios; (b) to analyze timber availability under different climate change scenarios, and harvesting; (c) to describe possible scenarios of land cover change as a result of climate change impact and harvesting to assist in policy-making related to land-use and landscape planning; and (d) to identify possible sources of both land-use conflicts and synergies as a result of changes in landscape composition caused by climate change. The study area was the Dog-River Matawin forest in north western Ontario (̃8 x 104 ha). It is currently under harvesting. I used the Boreal Forest Landscape Dynamic Simulator (BFOLDS) fire model to simulate landscape change under different climate change scenarios (CCSRNIES A21, CGCM2 A22), which were then compared to simulations under a baseline climate scenario (1961-1990). I also developed an algorithm for the geographic information systems Arc View©, that selected useful stands, and simulated harvesting and regeneration rules after logging, processes not currently included in BFOLDS. The studied period covered 60 years to analyze impacts in the medium term in the landscape change. Results obtained were the following. (1) There will be a shortage in timber availability under all scenarios including the baseline. The impacts of climate change will cause a deficit in timber availability much earlier under a warmer scenario with respect to the baseline. The combined impact of climate change and harvesting could diminish timber availability up to 35% compared to the baseline by year 2040 under the CCSRNIES A21 scenario mainly due to an increase in fires. Deficits will occur 10 years before in the same scenario compared to the baseline (by year 2035). (2) In both scenarios and the baseline, there will be a younger forest. In 60 years, there will not be mature forest to support ecological, social and economic processes, as the forest will only have young stands. (3) Results obtained indicated that species composition will not change importantly among the scenarios of climate change and the baseline every decade, but there will be a change in dominance along the 60 years of the simulation under each scenario including the baseline. Softwood increased in dominance and hardwood decreased in all scenarios. The period length used in the simulation of 60 years appeared to be too short to reveal conspicuous changes in species composition. Increases observed in softwood over hardwood related to the increase in fires which promoted the establishment of species such as jack pine as well as the application of regeneration rules after logging. This finding did not agree with the hypothesis. Results of timber availability were consistent with what I expected. Warmest climate change scenarios (CCSRNIES A21) impacted both the amount of timber available (less availability every ten years) from the beginning of the simulation and the time when deficits occurred. There are important economic, social and environmental implications of the results of this study, namely a future forest that would be young and would supply much less timber. For the forestry industry, production goals would be hindered in the medium term, falling short of industry demands. For a society that depends heavily upon the forest to survive, declining production can imply unemployment, thus affecting the welfare of the community. For the environment, such a young, fragmented forest could be unable to sustain important key species and ecological processes, leading to a loss of biodiversity, Land-use and landscape planning should be used to regulate how the land is used to minimize climate change impact. They should be further used as adaptation tools, to help in ameliorate those climate change impacts that do occur.