Climate Variability And Worldwide Migration Empirical Evidence And Projections

We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

Recent empirical studies have found that climate variability and migration are characterized by a non-linear relationship. This study explores the climate change impacts on migratory processes. It outlines the key elements of natural and human induced climate change of potential relevance to migration, discusses the current state of debate about the relationship between climate change and migration, and describes possible approaches and methodologies with which to further our understanding of climate change-related migration.

UN publications sales number E.08.III.S.4.Recent empirical studies have found that climate variability and migration are characterized by a non-linear relationship. This study explores the climate change impacts on migratory processes. It outlines the key elements of natural and human induced climate change of potential relevance to migration, discusses the current state of debate about the relationship between climate change and migration, and describes possible approaches and methodologies with which to further our understanding of climate change-related migration.

Gradual and sudden environmental changes are resulting in substantial human movement and displacement, and the scale of such flows, both internal and cross-border, is expected to rise with unprecedented impacts on lives and livelihoods. Despite the potential challenge, there has been a lack of strategic thinking about this policy area partly due to a lack of data and empirical research on this topic. Adequately planning for and managing environmentallyinduced migration will be critical for human security. The papers in this volume were first presented at the Research Workshop on Migration and the Environment: Developing a Global Research Agenda held in Munich, Germany in April 2008. One of the key objectives on the Munich workshop was to address the need for more sound empirical research and identify priority areas of research for policy makers in the field of migration and the environment.

This report focuses on the possible future scenarios for climate change, natural disasters and migration and development, looking to increase awareness and find answers to the challenges that lie ahead. It states that even though it is defined as growing crisis, the consequences of climate change for human population are unclear and unpredictable. The study points out that scientific basis for climate change is increasingly well established, and confirms that current predictions as to the “carrying capacity” in large parts of the world will be compromised by climate change.

Environmental migration is a topic which has given rise to widespread debate and gloomy predictions about the state of the world by 2050, but where rigorous research and empirical evidence are unfortunately in short supply. This study paper reviews the existing research on - and empirical evidence of - how climate change and climate variability in Less Developed Countries (LDCs) affects two main drivers of migration identified by migration models in the economic literature, namely: a) income level differentials between origin and destination areas and income variability in origin areas, and b) how they in turn affect migration. This paper highlights the need for a clearer picture of the driving force behind the link between rainfall and migration, which would in turn benefit policymaking in this area.

Despite the growing awareness of the nexus between climate change and migration, the subject has not yet been explored empirically in a way that generates conclusive results. Climate change might increase migration as people need to search for a living elsewhere, but migration might as well decrease as fewer people can afford to move. Recent empirical studies have found that climate variability and migration are characterized by a non-linear relationship, identifying many other factors influencing the linkage between climate change and migration. Climate change represents only one of the facto.

The first comprehensive review of the interaction between climate change and migration; for advanced students, researchers and policy makers.