Consumer Credit Models

The use of credit scoring - the quantitative and statistical techniques to assess the credit risks involved in lending to consumers - has been one of the most successful if unsung applications of mathematics in business for the last fifty years. Now with lenders changing their objectives from minimising defaults to maximising profits, the saturation of the consumer credit market allowing borrowers to be more discriminating in their choice of which loans, mortgages and credit cards to use, and the Basel Accord banking regulations raising the profile of credit scoring within banks there are a number of challenges that require new models that use credit scores as inputs and extensions of the ideas in credit scoring. This book reviews the current methodology and measures used in credit scoring and then looks at the models that can be used to address these new challenges. The first chapter describes what a credit score is and how a scorecard is built which gives credit scores and models how the score is used in the lending decision. The second chapter describes the different ways the quality of a scorecard can be measured and points out how some of these measure the discrimination of the score, some the probability prediction of the score, and some the categorical predictions that are made using the score. The remaining three chapters address how to use risk and response scoring to model the new problems in consumer lending. Chapter three looks at models that assist in deciding how to vary the loan terms made to different potential borrowers depending on their individual characteristics. Risk based pricing is the most common approach being introduced. Chapter four describes how one can use Markov chains and survival analysis to model the dynamics of a borrower's repayment and ordering behaviour . These models allow one to make decisions that maximise the profitability of the borrower to the lender and can be considered as part of a customer relationship management strategy. The last chapter looks at how the new banking regulations in the Basel Accord apply to consumer lending. It develops models that show how they will change the operating decisions used in consumer lending and how their need for stress testing requires the development of new models to assess the credit risk of portfolios of consumer loans rather than a models of the credit risks of individual loans.

This text reviews the current methodolgy and measures used in credit scoring and then looks at the models that can be used to address new challenges.

· Credit scoring is a vital and sometimes misunderstood tool in financial services · Evaluates the different systems available Bankers and lenders depend on credit scoring to determine the best credit risks--and ensure maximum profit and security from their loan portfolios. Handbook of Credit Scoring offers the insights of a select group of experts on credit scoring systems. Topics include: Scoring Applications, Generic and Customized Scoring Models, Using consumer credit information, Scorecard modelling with continuous vs. Classed variables, Basic scorecard Development and Validation, Going beyond Credit Score, Data mining, Scorecard collection strategies, project management for Credit Scoring

This article provides an introduction to a law review symposium by the Journal of Law, Economics, and Policy on our book (co-authored with Michael E. Staten), Consumer Credit and the American Economy (Oxford 2014). The conference, held November 2014, collects several articles responding to and building on the research agenda laid out by our book. For those who have not read the book, this article is intended to summarize several of the main themes of the book, including discussion of economic models of consumer credit usage, trends in consumer credit usage over time, the use of high-cost credit, and behavioral economics.

Credit Scoring and Its Applications?is recognized as the bible of credit scoring. It contains a comprehensive review of the objectives, methods, and practical implementation of credit and behavioral scoring. The authors review principles of the statistical and operations research methods used in building scorecards, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The book contains a description of practical problems encountered in building, using, and monitoring scorecards and examines some of the country-specific issues in bankruptcy, equal opportunities, and privacy legislation. It contains a discussion of economic theories of consumers' use of credit, and readers will gain an understanding of what lending institutions seek to achieve by using credit scoring and the changes in their objectives.? New to the second edition are lessons that can be learned for operations research model building from the global financial crisis, current applications of scoring, discussions on the Basel Accords and their requirements for scoring, new methods for scorecard building and new expanded sections on ways of measuring scorecard performance. And survival analysis for credit scoring. Other unique features include methods of monitoring scorecards and deciding when to update them, as well as different applications of scoring, including direct marketing, profit scoring, tax inspection, prisoner release, and payment of fines.?

Praise for Credit Risk Scorecards "Scorecard development is important to retail financial services in terms of credit risk management, Basel II compliance, and marketing of credit products. Credit Risk Scorecards provides insight into professional practices in different stages of credit scorecard development, such as model building, validation, and implementation. The book should be compulsory reading for modern credit risk managers." —Michael C. S. Wong Associate Professor of Finance, City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong Regional Director, Global Association of Risk Professionals "Siddiqi offers a practical, step-by-step guide for developing and implementing successful credit scorecards. He relays the key steps in an ordered and simple-to-follow fashion. A 'must read' for anyone managing the development of a scorecard." —Jonathan G. Baum Chief Risk Officer, GE Consumer Finance, Europe "A comprehensive guide, not only for scorecard specialists but for all consumer credit professionals. The book provides the A-to-Z of scorecard development, implementation, and monitoring processes. This is an important read for all consumer-lending practitioners." —Satinder Ahluwalia Vice President and Head-Retail Credit, Mashreqbank, UAE "This practical text provides a strong foundation in the technical issues involved in building credit scoring models. This book will become required reading for all those working in this area." —J. Michael Hardin, PhD Professor of StatisticsDepartment of Information Systems, Statistics, and Management ScienceDirector, Institute of Business Intelligence "Mr. Siddiqi has captured the true essence of the credit risk practitioner's primary tool, the predictive scorecard. He has combined both art and science in demonstrating the critical advantages that scorecards achieve when employed in marketing, acquisition, account management, and recoveries. This text should be part of every risk manager's library." —Stephen D. Morris Director, Credit Risk, ING Bank of Canada

This book deals with consumer lending from both theoretical and empirical points of view. In the theoretical section, it book analyses the wider context of financial literacy, household indebtedness and the global consumer credit market including relevant legal, regulatory and risk management issues. In the empirical section, the book uses The Navigator of Responsible Lending as an evaluation tool to assess both bank and non-bank consumer credit providers in the Czech Republic. Although our empirical research is done as a case study on the Czech Republic, its basic ideas might be easily applied to other countries as well. Enclosures to the book include additional texts relevant to consumer lending (including case studies and an unofficial English translation of the Czech Consumer Credit Act) and therefore provide the reader with several perspectives on the topic.

Consumer Credit and the American Economy examines the economics, behavioral science, sociology, history, institutions, law, and regulation of consumer credit in the United States. After discussing the origins and various kinds of consumer credit available in today's marketplace, this book reviews at some length the long run growth of consumer credit to explore the widely held belief that somehow consumer credit has risen "too fast for too long." It then turns to demand and supply with chapters discussing neoclassical theories of demand, new behavioral economics, and evidence on production costs and why consumer credit might seem expensive compared to some other kinds of credit like government finance. This discussion includes review of the economics of risk management and funding sources, as well discussion of the economic theory of why some people might be limited in their credit search, the phenomenon of credit rationing. This examination includes review of issues of risk management through mathematical methods of borrower screening known as credit scoring and financial market sources of funding for offerings of consumer credit. The book then discusses technological change in credit granting. It examines how modern automated information systems called credit reporting agencies, or more popularly "credit bureaus," reduce the costs of information acquisition and permit greater credit availability at less cost. This discussion is followed by examination of the logical offspring of technology, the ubiquitous credit card that permits consumers access to both payments and credit services worldwide virtually instantly. After a chapter on institutions that have arisen to supply credit to individuals for whom mainstream credit is often unavailable, including "payday loans" and other small dollar sources of loans, discussion turns to legal structure and the regulation of consumer credit. There are separate chapters on the theories behind the two main thrusts of federal regulation to this point, fairness for all and financial disclosure. Following these chapters, there is another on state regulation that has long focused on marketplace access and pricing. Before a final concluding chapter, another chapter focuses on two noncredit marketplace products that are closely related to credit. The first of them, debt protection including credit insurance and other forms of credit protection, is economically a complement. The second product, consumer leasing, is a substitute for credit use in many situations, especially involving acquisition of automobiles. This chapter is followed by a full review of consumer bankruptcy, what happens in the worst of cases when consumers find themselves unable to repay their loans. Because of the importance of consumer credit in consumers' financial affairs, the intended audience includes anyone interested in these issues, not only specialists who spend much of their time focused on them. For this reason, the authors have carefully avoided academic jargon and the mathematics that is the modern language of economics. It also examines the psychological, sociological, historical, and especially legal traditions that go into fully understanding what has led to the demand for consumer credit and to what the markets and institutions that provide these products have become today.