Credit Analysis

Arnold Ziegel formed Mountain Mentors Associates after his retirement from a corporate banking career of more than 30 years at Citibank. The lessons learned from his experience in dealing with entrepreneurs, multinational corporations, highly leveraged companies, financial institutions, and structured finance, led to the development and delivery of numerous senior level credit risk training programs for major global financial institutions from 2002 through the present. This book was conceived and written as a result of the development of these courses and his experience as a corporate banker. It illustrates the fundamental issues of credit and credit analysis in a manner that tries to take away its mystery. The overriding theme of this book is that when an investor extends credit of any type, the goal is "to get your money back", and with a return that is commensurate with the risk. The goal of credit analysis is not to make "yes or no" decisions about the extension of credit, but to identify the degree of risk associated with a particular obligor or a particular credit instrument. This is consistent with modern banking industry portfolio management and the rating systems of credit agencies. Once the "riskiness" of an obligor or credit instrument is established, it can be priced or structured to match the risk demands or investment criteria of the entity that is extending the credit. A simple quote from Mr. J. P. Morgan is used often in this text - "Lending is not based primarily on money or property. No sir, the first thing is character". This statement represents one of the conflicts in modern credit analysis - that of models for decision making versus traditional credit analysis. The 2008 financial crisis was rooted in the mortgage backed securities business. Sophisticated models were used by investors, banks, and rating agencies to judge the credit worthiness of billions (and maybe trillions) of dollars worth of residential mortgage loans that were packaged into securities and distributed to investors. The models indicated that these securities would have very low losses. Of course, huge losses were incurred. Mr. Morgan had a good point. In this case is was both property and character. The properties that were the collateral for many of the mortgages had much less value than was anticipated. The valuation of the collateral was na�ve and flawed. Many assumptions were made that the value of homes would rise without pause. Many mortgage loans were made that were at or even above the appraised value of a residence.But character was a huge, perhaps larger, factor behind these losses. Many of the residential mortgage loans were made to individuals who knew that they did not have the income to make the required payments on the mortgages. Many of the mortgage brokers and lenders who made these loans also knew that many of the borrowers were not properly qualified. And, many of the bankers who securitized these loans also may have doubted the credit quality of some of the underlying mortgages. If bankers and rating agencies understood the extent of the fraud and lax standards in the fundamental loans backing the mortgage securities, or were willing to acknowledge it, the fiasco would not have occurred.

� Worked examples illustrating key points � Explanation of complex or obscure terms � Full glossary of terms The titles in this series, all previously published by BPP Training, are now available in entirely updated and reformatted editions. Each offers an international perspective on a particular aspect of risk management. Topics included in this title in the Credit Risk Management series include Establishing overall corporate goals for credit worthiness; Implementing credit analysis systems; Outsourcing to enhance credit analysis techniques; Case studies in applied credit analysis; Exercises and sample credit analysis programs. Intended for: risk managers, financial officers, fund managers, investment advisers, accountants, and students of business and finance.

Credit is essential in the modern world and creates wealth, provided it is used wisely. The Global Credit Crisis during 2008/2009 has shown that sound understanding of underlying credit risk is crucial. If credit freezes, almost every activity in the economy is affected. The best way to utilize credit and get results is to understand credit risk. Advanced Credit Risk Analysis and Management helps the reader to understand the various nuances of credit risk. It discusses various techniques to measure, analyze and manage credit risk for both lenders and borrowers. The book begins by defining what credit is and its advantages and disadvantages, the causes of credit risk, a brief historical overview of credit risk analysis and the strategic importance of credit risk in institutions that rely on claims or debtors. The book then details various techniques to study the entity level credit risks, including portfolio level credit risks. Authored by a credit expert with two decades of experience in corporate finance and corporate credit risk, the book discusses the macroeconomic, industry and financial analysis for the study of credit risk. It covers credit risk grading and explains concepts including PD, EAD and LGD. It also highlights the distinction with equity risks and touches on credit risk pricing and the importance of credit risk in Basel Accords I, II and III. The two most common credit risks, project finance credit risk and working capital credit risk, are covered in detail with illustrations. The role of diversification and credit derivatives in credit portfolio management is considered. It also reflects on how the credit crisis develops in an economy by referring to the bubble formation. The book links with the 2008/2009 credit crisis and carries out an interesting discussion on how the credit crisis may have been avoided by following the fundamentals or principles of credit risk analysis and management. The book is essential for both lenders and borrowers. Containing case studies adapted from real life examples and exercises, this important text is practical, topical and challenging. It is useful for a wide spectrum of academics and practitioners in credit risk and anyone interested in commercial and corporate credit and related products.

A hands-on guide to the theory and practice of bank credit analysis and ratings In this revised edition, Jonathan Golin and Philippe Delhaise expand on the role of bank credit analysts and the methodology of their practice. Offering investors and practitioners an insider's perspective on how rating agencies assign all-important credit ratings to banks, the book is updated to reflect today's environment of increased oversight and demands for greater transparency. It includes international case studies of bank credit analysis, suggestions and insights for understanding and complying with the Basel Accords, techniques for reviewing asset quality on both quantitative and qualitative bases, explores the restructuring of distressed banks, and much more. Features charts, graphs, and spreadsheet illustrations to further explain topics discussed in the text Includes international case studies from North America, Asia, and Europe that offer readers a global perspective Offers coverage of the Basel Accords on Capital Adequacy and Liquidity and shares the authors' view that a bank could be compliant under those and other regulations without being creditworthy A uniquely practical guide to bank credit analysis as it is currently practiced around the world, The Bank Credit Analysis Handbook, Second Edition is a must-have resource for equity analysts, credit analysts, and bankers, as well as wealth managers and investors.

This book provides a comprehensive treatment of credit risk assessment and credit risk rating that meets the Advanced Internal Risk-Based (AIRB) approach of Basel II. Credit risk analysis looks at many risks and this book covers all the critical areas that credit professionals need to know, including country analysis, industry analysis, financial analysis, business analysis, and management analysis. Organized under two methodological approaches to credit analysis—a criteria-based approach, which is a hybrid of expert judgement and purely mathematical methodologies, and a mathematical approach using regression analysis to model default probability—the book covers a cross-section of industries including passenger airline, commercial real estate, and commercial banking. In three parts, the sections focus on hybrid models, statistical models, and credit management. While the book provides theory and principles, its emphasis is on practical applications, and will appeal to credit practitioners in the banking and investment community alongside college and university students who are preparing for a career in lending.

The high-yield leveraged bond and loan market (“junk bonds”) is now valued at $3+ trillion in North America, €1 trillion in Europe, and another $1 trillion in emerging markets. What’s more, based on the maturity schedules of current debt, it’s poised for massive growth. To successfully issue, evaluate, and invest in high-yield debt, however, financial professionals need credit and bond analysis skills specific to these instruments. Now, for the first time, there’s a complete, practical, and expert tutorial and workbook covering all facets of modern leveraged finance analysis. In A Pragmatist’s Guide to Leveraged Finance, Credit Suisse managing director Bob Kricheff explains why conventional analysis techniques are inadequate for leveraged instruments, clearly defines the unique challenges sellers and buyers face, walks step-by-step through deriving essential data for pricing and decision-making, and demonstrates how to apply it. Using practical examples, sample documents, Excel worksheets, and graphs, Kricheff covers all this, and much more: yields, spreads, and total return; ratio analysis of liquidity and asset value; business trend analysis; modeling and scenarios; potential interest rate impacts; evaluating and potentially escaping leveraged finance covenants; how to assess equity (and why it matters); investing on news and events; early stage credit; and creating accurate credit snapshots. This book is an indispensable resource for all investment and underwriting professionals, money managers, consultants, accountants, advisors, and lawyers working in leveraged finance. In fact, it teaches credit analysis skills that will be valuable in analyzing a wide variety of higher-risk investments, including growth stocks.

This second edition builds on the success of the first edition - the first book to look at how credit analysis of each major type of financial institution is best approached in an environment of integration, consolidation and globalisation within the financial services industry.

Credit analysis is an important factor in judging investment value. Fundamentally sound credit analysis can offer more insight into the value of an investment and lead to greater profits. This study presents a professional framework for understanding and managing a successful corporate or municipal bond analysis, while providing informative case studies from well-known private and government organizations.