Decadal Climate Variability

Many factors contribute to variability in Earth's climate on a range of timescales, from seasons to decades. Natural climate variability arises from two different sources: (1) internal variability from interactions among components of the climate system, for example, between the ocean and the atmosphere, and (2) natural external forcings, such as variations in the amount of radiation from the Sun. External forcings on the climate system also arise from some human activities, such as the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The climate that we experience is a combination of all of these factors. Understanding climate variability on the decadal timescale is important to decision-making. Planners and policy makers want information about decadal variability in order to make decisions in a range of sectors, including for infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, and energy. In September 2015, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to examine variability in Earth's climate on decadal timescales, defined as 10 to 30 years. During the workshop, ocean and climate scientists reviewed the state of the science of decadal climate variability and its relationship to rates of human-caused global warming, and they explored opportunities for improvement in modeling and observations and assessing knowledge gaps. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

On decadal time scales, climate change may result not only from man-made causes, but also from natural processes. This book brings together theoretical conceptions of the physical mechanisms of climate change with observational evidence of these changes. The following key topics are included: Observed Climatic Variability, Predictability of the Atmosphere and Oceans from Days to Decades, and Mechanisms for Decadal to Centennial Climate Variability. Further, there are specialised contributions on the role of the oceanic circulation in climate change. The authors are renowned for their pedagogical skills, and the book is primarily designed for beginners in the field, who have a background in physical science. In addition, it is an invaluable source of information for scientists seeking an overview on climate dynamics.

Natural Decadal Climate Variability: Societal Impacts is an important work for understanding the natural decadal climate variability (DCV), a phenomenon which has made long lasting impacts on civilizations, especially on water availability and agriculture. This book comprehensively covers multiyear to decadal variations in instrument measured precipitation and temperature, water availability and river flows, crop production, agricultural irrigation, inland water-borne transportation, hydroelectricity generation, and fish and crustacean captures since the 1960s. A longer term perspective is provided with the use of multi-century data on dry and wet epochs based on tree ring information, and corroborating evidence from other literature. This valuable work will benefit climate scientists, meteorologists, hydrologists, agronomists, water transportation planners, resource economists, policymakers, professors, and graduate students and anyone else who has an interest in learning how natural climate phenomena has influenced societies for at least the past 1000 years.

Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) and its interactions with anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are vitally important to understand to predict the future of the Earth's climate. This book, after familiarizing readers with the importance of understanding and predicting DCV phenomena and its distinction from ACC phenomena, comprehensively explains the physics of DCV, integrating paleoclimate proxy and modern instrument-based data and simulations with climate models. Features of this book: Uniquely focuses on natural DCV, its physics, and its predictability Presents an integrated view of DCV phenomena based on approximately 700 peer-reviewed publications cited in the book Includes research on influences of decadal variability in solar emissions on the Earth's climate, with a historical perspective going back several centuries Describes progress in decadal climate predictability and prediction research, with a historical perspective on weather and climate predictability research This book is an excellent resource for graduate students, faculty members and other teachers and researchers, and anyone who is interested in learning about a very important component of the puzzle of the changing climate. "This book provides a comprehensive review.... Highlighted throughout the book are potential links between DCV and solar variability, a fascinating topic that has engaged our minds for centuries. Written by an expert with more than 30 years' experience, this book should be an invaluable resource for students and researchers interested in how our climate will evolve over the coming decades." Doug Smith, Decadal Climate Prediction Leader, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, UK "This book is a tour de force by the author who has spent his career studying decadal climate variability. He brings new insights to the vast scope of this topic, providing clearly understandable descriptions of the various aspects." Gerald Meehl, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, USA

Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) and its interactions with anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are vitally important to understand to predict the future of the Earth’s climate. This book, after familiarizing readers with the importance of understanding and predicting DCV phenomena and its distinction from ACC phenomena, comprehensively explains the physics of DCV, integrating paleoclimate proxy and modern instrument-based data and simulations with climate models. Features of this book: Uniquely focuses on natural DCV, its physics, and its predictability Presents an integrated view of DCV phenomena based on approximately 700 peer-reviewed publications cited in the book Includes research on influences of decadal variability in solar emissions on the Earth’s climate, with a historical perspective going back several centuries Describes progress in decadal climate predictability and prediction research, with a historical perspective on weather and climate predictability research This book is an excellent resource for graduate students, faculty members and other teachers and researchers, and anyone who is interested in learning about a very important component of the puzzle of the changing climate. "This book provides a comprehensive review.... Highlighted throughout the book are potential links between DCV and solar variability, a fascinating topic that has engaged our minds for centuries. Written by an expert with more than 30 years’ experience, this book should be an invaluable resource for students and researchers interested in how our climate will evolve over the coming decades." Doug Smith, Decadal Climate Prediction Leader, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, UK "This book is a tour de force by the author who has spent his career studying decadal climate variability. He brings new insights to the vast scope of this topic, providing clearly understandable descriptions of the various aspects." Gerald Meehl, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, USA

We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space (National Academies Press, 2018) provides detailed guidance on how relevant federal agencies can ensure that the United States receives the maximum benefit from its investments in Earth observations from space, while operating within realistic cost constraints. This short booklet, designed to be accessible to the general public, provides a summary of the key ideas and recommendations from the full decadal survey report.

The interest and level of research into climate variability has risen dramatically in recent years, and major breakthroughs have been achieved in the understanding and modelling of seasonal to interannual climate variability and prediction. At the same time, the documentation of longer term variability and its underlying mecha nisms have progressed considerably. Within the European Commission's Environment and Climate research programs several important projects have been supported in these areas - including the "Dec adal and Interdecadal Climate variability Experiment" (DICE) which forms the basis of this book. Within the EC supported climate research, we see an increasing importance of research into climate variability, as is evidenced in the upcoming Fifth Framework Programme's Key Action on Global Change, Climate and Biodi versity. This is because of the obvious potential socio-economic benefits from sea sonal to decadal scale climate prediction and equally important for the fundamental understanding of the climate system to help improve the quality and reliability of future climate change and mankind's current interference with it. The DICE group has performed important and pioneering work, and we hope this book will receive the wide distribution and recognition it deserves. We wel come the contributions from distinguished researchers from US, Japan and Canada to the EC's DICE group towards completing the scope of the book and as an exam ple of international cooperation which is essential in such a high-level scientific endeavor.