Demographic Projection Techniques For Regions And Smaller Areas

In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.

The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.

Demographic Methods and Concepts makes accessible the most commonly needed techniques for working with population statistics, irrespective of the reader's mathematical background. For the first time in such a text, concepts and practical strategies needed in the interpretation of demographic indices and data are included. Spreadsheet training exercises enable students to acquire the computer skills needed for demographic work. The accompanying free CD-ROM contains innovative, fully integrated learning modules as well as applications facilitating demographic studies.

Andrei Rogers, one of the world's leading authorities on population trends, offers a powerful technique for carrying out regional population projections. He gives a clear step-by-step analysis and demonstrations of actual projections of future populations at the regional level. The examples show how to calculate regional population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions using data from several developed and less developed countries.

This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.​

This comprehensive handbook provides an overview and update of the issues, theories, processes, and applications of the social science of population studies. The volume's 30 chapters cover the full range of conceptual, empirical, disciplinary, and applied approaches to the study of demographic phenomena. This book is the first effort to assess the entire field since Hauser and Duncan's 1959 classic, The Study of Population. The chapter authors are among the leading contributors to demographic scholarship over the past four decades. They represent a variety of disciplines and theoretical perspectives as well as interests in both basic and applied research.

Canada's baby boom generation is about to turn sixty-five. In barely a decade, the number of senior citizens in every city, town, and village will double - and most communities are largely unprepared to deal with the consequences for housing, transportation, and community services. Gerald Hodge uses the latest statistics to map the current and future spatial distribution of Canada's seniors and their diversity. Drawing on tested aging-environmental research and years of planning experience, he delineates the everyday geography of seniors and proposes a comprehensive framework for all communities - large and small, urban, suburban, and rural - that will allow them to respond to the needs of a rapidly aging population while recognizing the importance of maintaining the independence of their seniors. The Geography of Aging provides an essential perspective for gerontologists, community planners, service providers, and caregivers, as well as provincial and local policy-makers, to enable them to better respond to the needs of senior citizens now and in the future.